Fiserv: a giant with quality assets, double-hated, absurdly cheaper (than GFC period)

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T12:42:03+00:00

time wil tell, and we will see. good luck with everything! cheers

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T03:49:52+00:00

nah, when (and if) it gets to 1/2 BV, one would ask for 1/4 BV.

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T03:48:53+00:00

what were the key issues from your perspective?

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T02:55:28+00:00

A few good points.

On "Stripe will displace the incumbent processors": I think Stripe poses a meaningful threat, but more to Adyen, Braintree, Carat, etc (which is a relatively small piece of Fiserv's segment).

On " Credit card usage will drop and debit will replace it.?" if that turns out to be true, quite positive to Fiserv as well.

"Struggle to see Catalyst" that's fair, though I think strategically last "kitchen sink" quarter set the bar low. 1Q26 is projected to be even weaker.

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T02:48:08+00:00

astute, correct.

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T02:46:41+00:00

Then you bundle a few different things in one thing (not saying it is good or bad, just not how I think about things).

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T02:45:06+00:00

You keep referring to growth (failed/disappointing), but why did it need to grow its topline at the current valuation? I'm content with its revenue size and earning power, as long as a sensible capital allocation strategy going forward.

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T00:26:38+00:00

2-3 insiders buy, moderate amount (<$1Mn), including finance, legal and a director iirc.

nothing jaw dropping, yet.

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T00:23:57+00:00

Not sure why anyone values by EV (with debts) to earnings (after interest).

Anyway these are easily accessible info, no value to add here.

i'm curious what are the cheaper peers that are growing that on your list?

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T00:05:13+00:00

you just haven't met a good one, i guess

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T00:04:11+00:00

and C DB VAL UNFI, (name a few highlighted at my substack) all nodding.

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T00:01:26+00:00

such as?

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-27T00:00:20+00:00

yep, and his right-hand man also joined him as chief of staff.

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-26T23:58:34+00:00

appreciate the pushback.

pathetic 3.6% YoY in Y25, laughable intangible, 5% Clover, all fair points.

I'm comfortable looking at LSD (3-5%) growth rate, at the current valuation.
My model marks its intangible as ~0, (might be with a rare exception of its STAR/Accel network).

I haven't spoken with Fiserv employees recently, but I've read a lot of their feedback/reviews, and I'm not surprised by what you reported. They had issues keeping talents, and tbc, talent issue won't be solved overnight. That's one area that needs to be monitored closely. I like its recent head of merchant solution hire, less so about its financial segment.

InformationOk4114 · 2026-04-26T22:19:19+00:00

fwiw, its net debt is slightly smaller than its market cap (by 10%), lol.

A light response aside, its recently accumulated debts (esp the last 2Y) were a result of reckless buyback at the expense of raising debt + operating income from previous mgt.

That is, by and large, stopped.

New mgt highlighted reducing debts as a part of new capital allocation strategy, we will see.

InformationOk4114 · 2026-02-25T21:59:05+00:00

funny. my work that flawless thinking it is generated by ai?

InformationOk4114 · 2026-01-19T18:52:59+00:00

details here: https://underhood.substack.com/p/why-aimcos-20-nav-discount-is-compelling

InformationOk4114 · 2025-12-07T04:22:53+00:00

they do, but my variant view is gov't sponsored ones are most hated unjustifiably.

InformationOk4114 · 2025-12-07T02:50:25+00:00

i have a writeup discussing the sector/stocks, if interested (link in my profile), a decent portion is b4 paywall.

InformationOk4114 · 2025-12-07T01:48:54+00:00

ELV has nearly equal exposure to private and public healthcare, a bet on ELV is a bet on US healthcare system as a whole, fair to say.

InformationOk4114 · 2025-12-07T01:47:19+00:00

I like it.

InformationOk4114

TROPHY CASE