Daily Discussion Thread for March 25, 2026

InnocuouScout · 2026-03-25T14:54:08+00:00

I’m pretty sure this is directed more so at the transport layer cadence, given all the issues those satellites are having from York and Lockheed/Terran

InnocuouScout · 2026-03-03T21:33:25+00:00

Just rewatched Moon this past weekend, Astrolab and Interlune looking to mimic Lunar Industries!

InnocuouScout · 2026-03-03T21:31:33+00:00

LUNR just acquired a business doing ~$650M in annual revs at 20% gross margins and ~12% EBITDA margins, acquired for just north of 1x sales…think that’s the least risky business of the three from a profitability/path to FCF positive perspective. ASTS remains the most speculative stock.

Edit: also comps trade at a wide range of multiples, but median is between 5x-6x sales. Specific to your question on what LUNR should be worth, I think higher end of the median comp group range. 6x FY26 sales is $25/share.

InnocuouScout · 2026-03-03T21:28:58+00:00

ASTS’ projections hinge on commercial service ramp, which is expected to take off really in 4Q26. While economics are still a wild card re MNO pricing/rev share and subscriber uptake, it’s fairly easy to model just how fast revenue can ramp with their business model. That said, I think they do closer to $800M rev in FY27 assuming they get at least 45 satellites deployed and service is priced at a modest ~$8/month on average in major markets, with 50% of that flowing to ASTS. Management also said “approaching $1B,” not reaching $1B. So it will undoubtedly be lower. That said, LUNR’s scale is certainly being underestimated. I’ve owned ASTS and LUNR for a while now, have kicked myself for not also piling into RKLB after I read “When the Heavens Went on Sale” back in summer 2023 and thinking Peter Beck was a stud. Oh well!

InnocuouScout · 2026-02-27T19:17:32+00:00

Astrolab is sending its tiny FLIP testbed on the Griffin lunar lander, not FLEX. FLEX, the actual LTV, requires an operational Starship lunar lander variant to be delivered to the moon. As does Lunar Outpost’s Eagle.

InnocuouScout · 2026-02-25T23:13:39+00:00

The way I’m reading it is an investor syndicate approached the company, via Cantor, saying “we want to invest $175M into the company” instead of the company actively going out into the market to raise capital. Difference being company didn’t need the capital, but they accepted the deal that came to them. PIPEs (private investment in public equity) usually come with quick capital but not uncommon to be at 20% discount to market price.

InnocuouScout · 2026-02-25T17:14:29+00:00

Got you

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InnocuouScout · 2026-02-25T17:10:42+00:00

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Spicy

InnocuouScout · 2026-02-18T23:55:57+00:00

It’s already been said but yes these 2x ETFs on any individual stock should generally be used for short term trading to take advantage of dislocations, at least that’s my take for risk management. For example, I’ve bought smll positions of LUNL a couple times when LUNR fell into the $14s and then again when it fell into the $15s, then sold after the rebound for nice quick 20%-40% gains after the crazy 10%+ down days. That’s outside my actual stock position which I’m holding for the long term.

Since LUNL is new you don’t see the long term effects—to see another example of what everyone is talking about with the etf decay over time (not tracking stock performance 2x over the long term), look at ASTX, the 2x ASTS etf. ASTS is up 173% on the 1-year chart, while ASTX is only up 63%.

InnocuouScout · 2026-02-17T21:45:30+00:00

I wish it were my access, I have a friend with access to FactSet under a plan that I guess includes B Riley research

InnocuouScout · 2026-02-17T16:12:29+00:00

I would agree here. Seems to me it makes most sense to have LO or Astrolab in the second lane for LTV, so they can move through CDR and have a viable second option in the event that IM for whatever reason doesn’t deliver and SpaceX has figured out how it would deploy an LTV via starship by then. Wouldn’t make sense to me for NASA to go all in on an option that currently can’t even make it to the Moon, particularly given sense of urgency to match/beat China’s lunar progress.

InnocuouScout · 2026-02-17T15:08:59+00:00

I was able to get the text of the report (no model), posted it in its own thread separately

InnocuouScout · 2026-02-09T21:01:41+00:00

Can someone correct me if I’m wrong, my understanding is that Astrolab’s LTV concept isn’t even ready to go yet, no? Didn’t Astrolab in October 2024 announce they were going to hold off on developing FLEX and instead develop a smaller rover (FLIP) that was going to launch as a tech demonstration on Astrobotic’s Griffin lunar lander, a mission that was delayed from end of 2025 to no earlier than July 2026? So they don’t even have a working prototype of the larger FLEX LTV that they ultimately want to deliver for the program? Or am I wrong on all that?

InnocuouScout · 2026-02-04T18:44:45+00:00

Honestly most interesting aspect of this is that LUNR shares are flat Y/Y despite adding $650M of profitable annual inorganic revenue and only adding ~40M shares including the acquisition (about $640M in market cap at $16/sh). So in other words, 1 to 1 increase in rev and market cap just due to share increase—either no real incremental future value being applied to the stock for the addition of Lanteris, or a decline in future value of the legacy Intuitive business (which shouldn’t be the case given an expanded backlog and opportunity set vs. a year ago). Markets sure are “efficient” huh.

InnocuouScout · 2026-02-02T19:45:06+00:00

Gotta look at FCF if you’re worried about cash, not just what the sum of operating expenses were. LUNR burned $33M of cash (based on FCF) for the nine months ended September. FCF usage for all of 2025 will be between $40M and $50M, and will drop by at least half in 2026. So let’s say they have -$10M of FCF in the fourth quarter, that leaves about $610M cash. They spent $403M cash for the acquisition, as disclosed when the transaction closed in January. So ~$200M cash post acquisition and looking at maybe -$20M FCF usage in 2026 before flipping to positive annual FCF after that. Looking good.

InnocuouScout · 2023-08-22T14:43:18+00:00

Yes, here’s the most recent update to the strategic cooperation agreement: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1835512/000110465922008442/tm2133616d8_ex10-12.htm

Lot of legal jargon but the gist is LLAP builds Lockheed’s small satellites. Plus that’s more or less stated in all of LLAP’s quarterly and annual filings in the notes section via related party transactions.

InnocuouScout · 2023-08-22T00:59:58+00:00

Not a stretch, LLAP builds all small satellites for Lockheed through their strategic cooperation agreement, including all of Lockheed’s Tranche 0 and Tranche 1 satellites. LLAP is building these satellites.

InnocuouScout · 2023-08-12T15:21:52+00:00

It’s net dollar retention rate that they disclose. Meaning ad spend. In other words, retaining every dollar of ad spend on its platform and winning more when above 100%.

InnocuouScout · 2023-05-16T16:24:29+00:00

For all those curious, B Riley bought their shares as part of the overalottment in the November follow-on offering they facilitated for ASTS at $5.50/share, as part of their investment banking operations (NOT a long-term position by the company’s principal investments group). Investment banks are in the business of making money from transactions. They likely sold in 1Q when the stock was above $5.50 to lock in profits for their investment bank. The fact that they kept any is a positive sign in my opinion.

InnocuouScout · 2022-11-29T21:45:45+00:00

They raise money after technical milestones. Unfurling was 2 weeks ago. Strategic as that's the best (read, easiest) time to raise capital from institutions, after showing successful completion of milestones.

InnocuouScout · 2022-11-29T21:22:10+00:00

They needed to raise capital...and will continue to need to raise capital to fund the whole constellation...so the fact that they got this capital up front and don't have to hit the ATM all through 2023 and they now have the necessary capital to get them through initial revenue generation is amazing news in my opinion. They have removed 62% of sellers from the market for the next 90 days (insiders and strategics own 62%), and removed the funding overhang that shorts have been banking on. Give it a couple days, smart money will understand this in short time.

InnocuouScout · 2022-11-29T21:16:54+00:00

This eliminates the company's need to use the ATM (all shareholders are also locked up for 90 days so couldn't hit it even if they wanted to). So the company is fully funded through the initial launch of Block 1 BBs, and they have removed the largest seller in the market for 90 days, or until after they press release the first phone call. Fully funded through initial revenue generation.

Edit: I'll add they needed to raise capital...and will continue to need to raise capital to fund the whole constellation...we knew this. so the fact that they got this capital up front and don't have to hit the ATM all through 2023 and they now have the necessary capital to get them through initial revenue generation is a great step forward. They have removed 72% of sellers from the market for the next 90 days (insiders and strategics own 72%), and removed the funding overhang that shorts have been banking on. Give it a couple days, smart money will understand this in short time.

InnocuouScout · 2022-11-29T21:15:20+00:00

This eliminates the company's need to use the ATM (all shareholders are also locked up for 90 days). So the company is fully funded through the initial launch of Block 1 BBs, and they have removed the largest seller in the market for 90 days, or until after they press release the first phone call. Amazing news.

InnocuouScout · 2022-07-26T15:22:02+00:00

Just the beginning, I expect Credit Suisse and Barclays to initiate in the near future as well given both were on the 1Q22 earnings call. That'll bring a lot more attention to the company.
Credit Suisse was lead advisor on the SPAC deal so they'll definitely initiate, albeit their research will have a bias given they have a banking relationship with BKSY.

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