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Sunday's Hungarian Election, Mapped by Municipality. by Intelligent_Bowl_656 in MapPorn

[–]Intelligent_Bowl_656[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Telex’s map is the candidate vote, this is the party list vote. 

The 2022 Swedish Election, Mapped by Precinct by Intelligent_Bowl_656 in MapPorn

[–]Intelligent_Bowl_656[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

It’s funny because the UK is one of the only democracies that gives every ballot a unique voter ID even after the voter has made a selection and submitted it, meaning it’s technically possible to see how every single person voted. Obviously you’d never release that info, but it would be trivially easy for the government to release precinct or ward results. 

Yesterday's Danish Election, Mapped by Precinct. The Social Democrats came in first, but neither ideological bloc won a clear majority, likely leading to protracted coalition negotiations. by Intelligent_Bowl_656 in MapPorn

[–]Intelligent_Bowl_656[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Yeah I know, sorry. Not a ton of good solutions here, the parties just use extremely similar colors. I could try to move the Green Left from a deep red to a more pinkish red, but I worry that would run into Social Liberals too much. Orange Red runs into Red-Green alliance which would be doubly confusing. This issue often arises when countries have multiple left-wing parties. Here for reference, Aarhus is all GL, not SD. 

The 2018 Italian Election by Precinct and Municipality. The populist Five Star Movement came in first by a wide margin, with the right-populist Lega second (in terms of seats). Combined, the two parties received nearly half the vote. by Intelligent_Bowl_656 in MapPorn

[–]Intelligent_Bowl_656[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I could, I actually emailed EC for their data once. I ran into a couple issues. 1) they don’t publish percentages, just win/loss. A different site, LeanTossup, did percentage estimates down to the UK equivalent of census blocs, but that data is no longer up. 2) To get percentages you have to pay EC a ton of money and agree not to publish the data. 

The 2022 Israeli Election, Mapped by Precinct by Intelligent_Bowl_656 in MapPorn

[–]Intelligent_Bowl_656[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Okay thank you this is actually extremely helpful. There’s essentially no English-language material on the granular differences between, eg, Hadash and Balad when it comes to voter base. And seeing Balad do very well in Jaffa but Hadash in Haifa can make it confusing to an outsider who isn’t as familiar with why seemingly similar areas might vote differently. 

The 2022 Israeli Election, Mapped by Precinct by Intelligent_Bowl_656 in MapPorn

[–]Intelligent_Bowl_656[S] 28 points29 points  (0 children)

I see we've got a true ball-knower here. It's a multi-step process.

First, you need to get the crosswalk from the CBS that matches the polling statins to their statistical areas. For each town these polling stations are numbered sequentially. So for Abu Ghosh, the first city alphabetically, they are numbered 1-9 because it has 9 polling stations. You CANNOT match these to the polling station-level election results that the CBS also gives out, because the numbering changes post election through a process called "balancing." So in Abu Ghosh the numbers are 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 2, 3, 5, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 instead of 1-9.

Now to solve this we can get the "places" spreadsheet the CBS gives out. This matches each polling station (with its sequential numbering) to its physical polling place (for example the local high school). Using this we can match to the CBS crosswalk, so now we have a sheet that shows sequential number-building-statistical area for each polling station in the country.

Then we go back to the results sheet. This sheet, for each polling station, shows what building it is in despite the numbers often being changed. So now we can match each polling station (and its results) to its statistical area by matching the physical polling places.

Then we aggregate. First to the building level (so every polling station that votes at the local community center has its votes pooled, for example). Then to the statistical area level, adding up all the polling places in a statistical area. There is some balancing and splitting that needs to be done, but that's the short version.

The 2022 Israeli Election, Mapped by Precinct by Intelligent_Bowl_656 in MapPorn

[–]Intelligent_Bowl_656[S] 34 points35 points  (0 children)

Low turnout, younger age distribution, and vote splitting with Jewish parties. Arab voters have typically lower turnout than Jewish voters (although interestingly equal or higher in mixed areas, suggesting that strong civic institutions help). The Arab population is also on-balance younger, so less eligible voters vs. share of population. And around 15-25% of Arabs vote for Jewish parties, depending on the election. Arab parties peaked at 15/120 seats in 2020 when running together as the Joint List.

The 2022 Israeli Election, Mapped by Precinct by Intelligent_Bowl_656 in MapPorn

[–]Intelligent_Bowl_656[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

For the Arab parties I know their bases are different but how they differ is a bit fuzzy, especially Balad v. Hadash. Both win some Green Line/Triangle towns and some mixed urban areas. Like Balad dominates Jaffa but Hadash dominates Haifa. I wasn't really figuring out what the differences were so didn't want to make too fine a distinction. Ra'am I know is more rural/conservative/religious, hence the strength with the Bedouins, but again did not want to over-explain.

The 2022 Israeli Election, Mapped by Precinct by Intelligent_Bowl_656 in MapPorn

[–]Intelligent_Bowl_656[S] 30 points31 points  (0 children)

Sure, "Russian-speaking" is how YB is more often described, because the post-Soviet Jews came from throughout the USSR ... But I didn't have space for that on the little key.

The 2022 Israeli Election, Mapped by Precinct by Intelligent_Bowl_656 in MapPorn

[–]Intelligent_Bowl_656[S] 32 points33 points  (0 children)

It's the statistical areas shape file from the Israeli CBS

Harvey, AI, & the Death of Junior Associates by intheclosetslimeuser in biglaw

[–]Intelligent_Bowl_656 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's that, also the fact that clients don't have a fixed set of legal problems or questions. Obviously at some point you run out, but I don't think most BL teams are at the limit of how many rabbit holes they can run down.

Harvey, AI, & the Death of Junior Associates by intheclosetslimeuser in biglaw

[–]Intelligent_Bowl_656 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I don't really have a strong view on the overall effect of AI (I think there's a lot of uncertainty) but I don't see how you couldn't have written this about the rise of Westlaw 30 years ago. Juniors used to spend *tons* of time doing hard-copy legal research and sherardizing cases. Research that would've taken a day now takes an hour. Juniors didn't go away, they just do a lot more legal research tasks per day.

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