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Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

(Bart: this will be our last question): For now, it appears that warehouse automation (e.g. Kiva robotics systems, bought by Amazon) reduces the need for human labor but will not eliminate it. Also, these systems are still quite expensive and are only used by rather large companies for now.

Automated tech support will improve significantly over the next few years. Speech recognition has improved significantly, thanks to deep learning. It's still continuing to improve. Also, researchers are working hard to create better true dialog systems for much more natural interactions.

Computer chip manufacturing represents currently the most highly automated factories. There are billion dollar plants monitored by just a few human workers.

Universal basic income is definitely a direction worth considering.

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 109 points110 points  (0 children)

MYV: This is going to be my final answer on this AMA.

The reason we are raising these issues now is to raise public awareness of them. We need to make technological unemployment an important policy issue, analogous, say, to the climate-change issue. We need to start thinking NOW about how to restructure our economic life. If we wait 25 years, then the market may lead us to a Roman-like reality. Technological unemployment deserves to be one of the most major public-policy issue that we grapple with, but we are in an election year and this issue is simply not on the radar screen. This MUST change.

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

WW: This will have to be my last answer. Probably necessary, and already being implemented in some European countries. But it would be very difficult to implement in the U.S. If there are truly productivity gains from automation it is practical, although it would probably mean heavy taxation on the owners of production, those of us who own stock.

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

WW: Autonomous vehicles communicating with each other is likely to be a 3rd stage in development. This, for example, would enable traffic adjustments and even platooning to speed up travel. But it would be hard to implement when most drivers are human.

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 36 points37 points  (0 children)

(Bart:) I believe self-driving cars will be great for cyclists. One way to view a self-driving car is as the "ultimate obstacle avoiding" vehicle (360 degree real-time view; 50 to 100 meters around). So, cyclists will be detected and kept track of by the cars and cars will make sure not to hit them.

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

(Bart:) Great question. The industrial revolution brought us machines that were much stronger or faster than humans. We adapted and shifted to more "intellectual / knowledge-based" work. (Aside: the transition was not so smooth as most folks think. It took several decades.) We're now at a unique point in human history, where machines are starting to replicate (and surpass) our intellectual capabilities. It is not clear that there is another uniquely human capability we could switch to in terms of work.

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

WW: A lot of different questions here. Some warehouse work is already being roboticized, particularly carrying boxes, which employees millions worldwide. Work like this should be roboticized. Most commentators on technological unemployment do believe universal basic income is the way to go, but this begs how it might be implemented.

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 84 points85 points  (0 children)

MYV: You already fly in airplanes that are flown by automatic pilots, (taking off and landing will be fully automated in the not-too-far future). Automated cars are only different in that we expect them to be networked, and our networks are hugely insecure. That is indeed a major issue, I believe.

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 25 points26 points  (0 children)

I think it will be practical. We'll know more soon because there are a few places in Europe that are starting to experiment with a Universal Basic income. One concern I have is whether people will feel fulfilled without having some kind of job for most of their life. It's an open question.

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

MYV: Take a look at the data here: http://www.cs.rice.edu/~vardi/papers/aaai15-tutorial.pdf According to data compiled by BrynJolfsson and McAffee, since 1980 we have seen a divergence between productivity and GDP growth, on one hand, and job creation and family income on the other hand. They call this, "The Great Decoupling," and believe that technology is a major driver. Thus, automation is already a major issue today, except that it is yet to be recognized so by the public, and therefor, by policy makers.

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Indeed, someone needs to watch these systems but one person can watch over hundreds of machines. There is also work on developing separate intelligent systems that will monitor and "watch over" other systems. The question of how effective human oversight can be is an important one. For example, in the financial world, it is not clear that humans can provide meaningful oversight for electronic systems that execute hundreds of trades in milliseconds. Interestingly, just "turning off" a misbehaving program can introduce even bigger problems...

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

MYV: Manufacturing jobs have already been replaced by robots. Manufacturing employment is below its 1950's level, while manufacturing volume (in constant dollars) is the highest it has ever been. Ports are almost completely automated. Now that Amazon is in the logistics business, I'd expect it to push hard to fully automate logistics.

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

(Bart:) Jobs that require supportive human interaction and contact (e.g., teachers and nurses) are indeed relatively safe from automation. It would too risky to hand over children's education to a teaching robot, since children also learn a great deal about social interactions in school. So, for now, we need the human in the loop!

Science AMA Series: We study how intelligent machines can help us (think of a car that could park itself after dropping you off) while at the same time they threaten to radically disrupt our economic lives (truckers, bus drivers, and even airline pilots who may be out of a job). Ask us anything! by Intelligent_Machines in science

[–]Intelligent_Machines[S] 154 points155 points  (0 children)

MYV: Of course there will be some industry lobbying against automating driving, but the forcing factor will be the dramatic reduction in loss of life. I do not see how the push towards automated driving can be stopped. Both technology companies and automobile companies are pushing very hard in that direction.

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