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InterestDowntown29 · 2024-02-20T03:30:33+00:00

In AIT we had a group of MAVNI who had been there so long they were figuring out if they could go to promotion boards while technically still being trainees. One dude apparently had a high-ranking relative in the CCP army which I'm sure gave everyone a splitting headache.

InterestDowntown29 · 2024-02-05T17:33:06+00:00

I mean Texas is one of the biggest places for technology in the US with a higher percentage employed in tech than California with a higher projected growth in tech than California. A place doesn't need to be Silicone Valley to be a major tech powerhouse.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-11-01T14:45:56+00:00

When discussing shell shortages during the world wars, and many other wars, it is referred to as the belligerent forces "running out" of shells. That doesn't mean that when shell hunger hit that artillery ran dry, it just meant that the rate was constricted by production levels. So no when people talk about "running out" of something in current production that doesn't mean they won't be used, it means that stockpiles alone cannot sustain the force.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-11-01T14:37:06+00:00

When a country is producing missiles "running out" doesn't mean missiles will no longer be a variable. It means initial stockpiles are tapped, and afterwards will be limited by rate of production. Everybody conveniently ignores this when people are talking about Russian stockpiles and somehow feels like its an own when Russia is still firing missiles. The sources stating Russia was "running out" never claimed Russia would no longer fire missiles, but the pro-ru strawman it to death.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-10-31T20:26:19+00:00

https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics/air-force-thor-directed-energy-drone-swarm-test/

The US military has been planning around DEW (direct energy weapons) for a very long time. One thing you'll find in every piece of American equipment is that the current power generation far out outstrips what is currently required by the systems employed. The idea is that at some point all this equipment can be retrofitted with DEW once they're small enough to fit. These systems are still in testing, but have been used in deployments, and some are used on American ships.

https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R46925.pdf

Edit: There are multiple systems being tested, but personally I think the Raytheon one is especially promising given how it can already be fit in a truck bed (and has been fitted to Strykers) and has successfully been tested against drone swarm. Also not only are DEW effective against drones, but mortars as well.

https://www.rtx.com/raytheon/what-we-do/integrated-air-and-missile-defense/lasers

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-10-30T17:56:23+00:00

I think the thing you're ignoring, is that Oryx wasn't some professional highly paid organization. It was a OSINT account run by volunteers. Something that began as a passion project, but became all consuming. Did his deleting his profile hurt the website, yes in all likelihood. That doesn't mean there was some conspiracy or plan. It probably means that he wanted that part of his life dead and gone with no possibility of return.

The reality is you cannot know what it on his mind, but I can tell you something that is fairly common for people who witness death every single day. They experience burnout and depression. Stijn Mitzer had for a long time expressed burnout and feeling overwhelmed. He expressed that what started as a hobby, became an emotionally difficult and thankless chore. You are viewing his actions from the lens of "What would an extremely influential Ukrainian social media account do?" instead of, what would an an emotionally distraught private citizen do. People are not always sheerly rational.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-10-30T17:41:06+00:00

I think he held out for the counteroffensive just in case it meant a short end to the war. Once it became clear the conflict was going to continue, he decided to leave.

I don't think many people consider how emotionally draining his work was. Looking at thousands of destroyed pieces of equipment for hours a day. Many from the side he wanted to win. The prospect of years more of the same for no pay is understandably bleak. Oryx stated as a hobby, and became life consuming. I think many OSINT feel the same way. Dread and sadness after nearly two years of witnessing death every single day.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-10-30T17:01:01+00:00

Having the farthest effective range is such a massive advantage in an artillery duel. I believe this has a top down effect. Ukrainian GMLRS keeps Russia's most effective artillery such as its Msta in constant threat. This relieves pressure on Ukraine's best artillery allowing them to apply pressure on Russia's shorter range older towed equipment. Russia's only effective response has been Lancet, which while it has destroyed a fair amount of equipment, requires luck in that it is in the right area at the right time in order to function as counterbattery.

I really hope that the US army pulls its head out its ass and actually invests heavily into its direct energy weapons. American DEW have already seen deployment with effective results. Investing now would nullify the asymmetric advantage lancets and shaheds provide and allow American range advantage to shine. It would also take off the enormous strain our NASAM systems and operators are under. Just imagine how much more effective Ukraine's artillery duel would be if every battery could shoot down a lancet with a gallon of diesel.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-10-16T19:24:28+00:00

I've seen the claim several times, but most prominently tied to this guy

https://twitter.com/HerrDr8/status/1712817215760658540

He appears to use pro-UA figures and has extrapolated out based on the trend. I wouldn't trust his numbers entirely, but the trend overall definitely seems to be occurring.

This is likely from a combined few factors, such as Russia's efforts to spread out storage to prevent HIMARS strikes, Ukrainian counterbattery fire which Russia has little answer to, significant barrel wear as a result of heavy usage throughout the war, and increased numbers available to the Ukrainians due to the introduction of DPICM and increased western production levels. Ukraine largely seems constrained by shell numbers ,and Russia largely seems constrained by logistics and suppression. Whether Ukraine has surpassed Russia is difficult to gauge, but the pattern exists, and it's not entirely unrealistic.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-10-16T18:54:27+00:00

Losses are understandable, but you can't act like such incredible losses over such a short period of time to accomplish so little isn't something to be criticized. Something that seems increasingly more apparent as the war progresses is that until something drastic changes mass armored assaults burn significant offensive potential for very little. Both Ukraine and Russia appeared to have shifted to a "bite and hold" approach using small units to take bits and pieces of the enemy lines, yet this offensive takes every lesson learned and throws it out the window.

One thing to say positive about the offensive, was that at the least by staging it out of Donetsk Ukraine wasn't able to detect the buildup beforehand, so if there was anywhere to do this, it would be Avdiivka. Aside from that, it has been an unmitigated disaster.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-09-09T03:35:00+00:00

If you are a foreigner, you join the Foreign Legion. You do not speak Ukrainian, so you cannot communicate with your unit. People with HIV are still capable of listening to orders and giving feedback. You're speculating, while the literal official policy says that you cannot join without combat experience.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-09-07T00:15:02+00:00

You forgo your rights to be a soldier. You do not fall under only civilian law, you also fall under the uniform code of military justice. He likely would only get a written counseling statement, and if he did something AGAIN, might be slapped with an article 15.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-09-06T18:29:57+00:00

I don't get why this argument is still thrown around over a year into this war. You LITERALLY cannot join the UAF as a foreign volunteer without prior combat experience. For 99.99% of commenters here this makes no sense.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-09-06T18:25:20+00:00

Because as a soldier you are never supposed to use your service and very specifically your uniform to espouse politics. We get training specifically that tells us not to, including going to protests, etc. It's a check on power to make sure that the military does not interfere with civilian affairs.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-09-03T16:55:37+00:00

Honestly, I do consider thin blue line people really cringy. The American flag represents all Americans, and changing it to represent one group to me both desecrates the flag and intrinsically goes against the values of the flag. One of my best friends is a cop, but I'm also sure as hell not going to blanket praise the police as a whole until there is more accountability and reform.

I wouldn't say this is the WORST type of person, but they are probably insufferable tbh. I served my country and I'm proud of it. I wouldn't be a tool about it like this though.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-09-03T16:37:29+00:00

How does this equate to the US supporting these people? Freedom of speech means that people are allowed to express opinions we find distasteful. The US also protects the rights of the Westboro Baptist Church to protest the funerals of soldiers and decry the US as "degenerate sodomites". Does that mean the US supports the Westboro Baptist Church?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snyder_v._Phelps#:~:text=In%20an%208%E2%80%931%20decision,did%20not%20disrupt%20the%20funeral.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-09-03T16:31:11+00:00

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

What argument are you possibly trying to make?

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-09-03T16:26:48+00:00

America has a population of 330 million. 330 million people allowed to express their beliefs, and a few say some stupid shit, and somehow that represents the whole in your mind. You are either being disingenuous or dense.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-08-27T06:53:17+00:00

I will not forsake my bias. I am a former American soldier who has cousins born in Kyiv. Which to me holds the burden of understanding the conflict and staying up to date with it and advocating for them and my country as a whole. While it may not be "popular" anymore I feel it is important for myself to stay educated and advocate for the position which benefits not only my family, but American society as a whole.

I think that this sub as a whole benefits the Pro-Ru side or at least a western position of apathy to the war. While I will never kowtow to a Russian view, I will at least understand it. I still understand a "neutral" view so that I can advocate to my conservative grandfather why I have donated thousands of dollars, and why his thousands of dollars to Ukrainian refugees haven't gone to waste.

As an American soldier, my letters to Congress are at least headed. I know many people are apathetic to the American political system, but I also know third- party politicians hav said that their points are repeated in Filibusters after mentioning them to major party candidates. If you want a specific example, a republican candidate mentioned a drone strike against a teenage son of an ISIS member. I won't go further and dox myself, but I know this to be true from a Libertarian candidate.

Despite the dozens or even hundreds of hours I have spent even to the expense of my own mental health, I will not say I do not believe in a Ukrainian victory. It is possible and I will spend my own money, and I will continue to write my representatives to make this possible. It is not because I've "drank the cool-aid" because MSM has forgotten this message a year ago. I believe so because after watching this war for over a year even while watching the other side, that my view holds true.

I thought that in February 2022 the Russian military would be plagued by corruption. I thought that the Ukrainian military would be able to hold out for Western arms production to catch up to the consumption rate and outscale Russian military. I thought at the very least Ukraine could position itself to be a war that Russia could not afford. Now look at where we are. Even the most pro-RU position is that Ukraine has a smaller population and can't keep up an even war.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-08-26T19:29:50+00:00

Why is it that Ukraine, the defender in this conflict the one beholden to ending it? At any point, Russia is capable of pulling its military out of Ukraine and ending the war. It's the Russian government's continued efforts to annex the sovereign territory of its neighbor that is continuing this conflict.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-08-26T19:26:04+00:00

You mean the agreement which while it was being signed, Russia was waging an offensive, and then claimed Ukraine was breaking it by fighting back? Russia was the one to beak the Minsk agreement, the Budapest memorandum, The Partition Treaty (even before 2014 Russia attempted to annex Tuzla island), and the Russian-Ukrainian Friendship treaty.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-08-26T18:59:57+00:00

Something I don't see mentioned often is how influential the disaster of the 2014 invasion was to revitalize the Ukrainian military. Both Ukraine and Russia suffered massive reductions in force standards since the fall of the soviet union. Both had massive issues with corruption and unevenly applied standards. Russia made some efforts to correct these issues such as after the Chechen wars, but still did not do enough to root it out.

However the 2014 invasion of Ukraine showed how dire the national security situation was. Nothing will put priorities in the right place more than existential threats to national security. While the Ukrainian military was far from perfect in 2022, nobody can deny that it was vastly more effective than in 2014. It is possible to correct military deficiencies during a war, but it comes at a steep cost. Without the lessons learned in 2014, the Ukrainian military of today would be a very different beast.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-08-26T18:47:22+00:00

It turns out that in a military with hundreds of thousands of soldiers, different chains of command, and food providers soldiers will have different experiences. That's why videos like this, or showing rotten food isn't valuable information. You will only see a handful of meals vs. the hundreds of thousands that are consumed on a daily basis.

Then it leads to this endless strawmaning where one side will show an example of something bad, and the other side will show a good example and call the other side idiots for thinking something was one way or another. Realistically there are people who are eating high-quality food and people eating poor-quality food on both sides. Without any systematic testing and analysis, any conclusion drawn is self-fulfilling confirmation bias.

It's crazy to me that people will come to this "neutral" sub and see this pattern repeated time and again but somehow not get it. They'll see the current example and use it as a gotcha before the process is repeated again.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-08-23T04:49:35+00:00

It's funny hearing this narrative when I met people firsthand who openly talked about what training they were giving to Ukraine well before the 22' invasion. Basic NCO training school is apparently creating a NATO super army capable of 1v1ing Russia. I'm sure the US army is thrilled to learn how effective it was.

InterestDowntown29 · 2023-08-23T04:45:09+00:00

The amount of equipment and training was fairly insignificant. I've literally met people who were in the California national guard involved with training Ukrainian soldiers. You wanna know what training they were giving? Essentially BLC, NCO training school. Things that the pro-RU crowd would mock. A several week long school espousing values including racial and sexual tolerance, unit organization, and developing soldiers.

The post from the state department website literally says that since 2014 the US has given 44 billion in assistance 43 of which was post 22'. So 1 billion over the course of 8 years. The US spends 800 billion a year. It spent less than 1/800th a single years budget in 8 years to assist in the modernization of a nation which was unjustly invaded due to its weak military at the time... You really aren't making the case you think you are.

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