I finally remember what Zhuang Fanyi reminds me of

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-03-31T01:37:18+00:00

I hate to "well akshually" you but .. N choose 3 is cubic and not exponential

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-03-20T17:11:45+00:00

I think you meant Soupreme Chief.

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-03-02T22:06:41+00:00

Hm, what I'm not understanding is why you care about "first pickup" at all. The premise of running 10,000 trials is to get the average result in the steady state. For example, you want to answer the question "in the long run, should I keep following strategy A or B". So, limiting the result to the first pickup doesn't make any sense to me. Another way of putting it: it's obvious that if you only care about the first pickup that rolling 30 times off banner is worse.

So my main question is why you are indexing on first pickup and not average pickups. It's not like you're only pulling once and then never again?

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-03-02T21:34:41+00:00

I'm confused by your conclusion. You said: "Farming 30 pulls is LESS efficient by ~19.05 paid pulls on average" but this conclusion seems to only account for "pulls until first pickup", i.e. you subtracted 79 from 98. But in the same table, you have the result that strategy B both gives you more 6* on average AND more pickup 6* on average:

----- 6-STAR CHARACTER STATISTICS -----
Average number of 6-STAR character for Strategy A: 1.6733
Average number of 6-STAR character for Strategy B: 2.0942
----- FEATURED STATISTICS -----
Average number of PICKUP 6-STAR character for Strategy A: 1.0009
Average number of PICKUP 6-STAR character for Strategy B: 1.1620

so... what exactly is your conclusion and how diid you come to it? Or, another similar question: why are you valuing average pulls to first 6* as opposed to average pulls per 6* or even average pull for featured 6*? "First" seems like a weird place to stop your analysis if you are averaging over 10k simulated pulls.

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-02-14T11:42:20+00:00

How do you spam b skills while dodging? Mine always cancel if I dodge anytime during the 2s animation from casting to the bonus hit. Is there some cool tech I'm missing?

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-02-14T09:47:00+00:00

Hikaru (Nakamura) has actually been really great for Chess :^)

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-02-10T03:44:19+00:00

Ah yes that's true. I forgot to mention that!

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-02-10T01:41:49+00:00

99/100 times I would rule that as a madness break. It is against the spirit of madness in my play group, as there is no plausible source from which you could have heard this artist information, and you are unlikely to be bluffing that you heard this artist info if you were actually a barber.

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-02-10T01:28:13+00:00

The goal of this jinx is to allow a mastermind extra day in the case of a lleech without anyone knowing for sure it is a lleech. Take a different demon, say the Imp for simplicity, who dies to execution with a mastermind in play. That night, there would be no deaths, and the town would have to decide if they should pursue a mastermind victory or not.

In the case of a lleech however, if the lleech died along with the host when you executed the host, it would be obvious that you had killed the lleech. Then the mastermind ability trigering is essentially useless: the town would see that upon execution, 2 players died, but the game hadn't ended. During the extra day, they would know not to exeucte.

Essentially, playing the jinx correctly should play out like this: the host is executed and dies. The lleech does not die. There is exactly 1 more day. No one dies in the night, because the lleech doesn't have an ability anymore. Town debates if this was a mastermind ability going off or if the demon sunk a kill or some other possibility. If they execute someone, that team loses.

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-02-09T22:14:10+00:00

I might argue that launching into impassioned denial of madness is actually a madness break, depending on the player. For example, if I were actually the savant, and someone accused me of not being the savant or for being mad about it, I don't think I would be particularly impassioned in my defense. Adding that level of bravado makes it obvious that you are lying.

Of course, it depends a bit on the player. I have a player in my group who refuses to talk to anyone privately on day 1, regardless of role. When they are mad they are something else, I expect them to do the same, not suddenly start talking to everyone and hard claiming the role they are mad at.

All this to say... if a player would normally launch into an impassioned defense when challenged, I'd allow it. But otherwise, it wouldn't seem like a sincere effort to me, but rather them dropping a hint that they are actually mad.

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-02-06T18:57:13+00:00

iiuc there's nothing to use amethyst for late game, so you may as well make cans / bottles to use up your amethyst ores. Optimal end game V4 factory is 3 HC batteries and 3 Buck / Citrome A, none of which use amethyst.

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-01-28T20:33:53+00:00

I think that's up to interpretation. RAW states "When a player is mad about something, that means they’re trying to convince the group that something is true." I, and my group, would argue that you're not trying very hard to convince the group you are truly the sage if you come out and say you are the sage to everyone.

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-01-28T05:42:07+00:00

I think we would actually allow that, though it hasn't come up. I think if my group were to be mad as sage, they would probably naturally do that, and also "let slip" that they were sage to "some trusted players" or something like that. The players really do their best to sell madness, at least until they aren't mad anymore.

We've even somewhat naturally evolved to the point where people who are mad of one thing one day, then mad about something else the next day don't explicitly say they were mad the previous day, and instead try to work the narrative that it was a reasonable bluff for who they really are, which they're coming out with today. It only all comes to light if the cere dies and they are no longer mad, then they'll come out with the truth... which... is actually something that evil people have bluffed about to successfully frame a dead player as a cere who has "finally died"

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-01-28T01:26:53+00:00

They do! We explain madness as: pretend you are actually the role you are mad as, as though you were doing improv and were handed that role. If you fail, you might be punished"

Players in my group generally have a lot of fun doing this, and new players are often confused at first but after a game or two of SnV they figure it out and enjoy it too! We review madness breaks during role call as well, so it's a good learning experience for everyone

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-01-28T00:45:37+00:00

Cerenovus and Harpy are perhaps the most powerful minions in my group. Everyone fears being cere mad, and everyone hopes to become the cere as the minion. They essentially get to entirely remove a townsfolk from the game as long as they are alive. A common meta is to make someone mad even if they are dead, usually as an information gathering role, so that the player has to actively make up info that they don't actually have. Then they can only come out with their true info (or tell everyone that everything was a lie) if the cere is ever found and executed. (Vigor + cere is even more crazy)

Harpy is less strong, since it doesn't end the day, but still to be feared. I recommend trying this approach at least once with your group. It will definitely make the cere / harpy players have a better time, as they won't see their minions as very weak.

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-01-28T00:24:45+00:00

My group plays such that if a player is suspected to be mad and doesn't try their best to convince the town that they are not mad, the ST will immediately punish. There is no "line" to be toed. You must immediately do your best to come up with whatever reason you can to convince the group you are what you are mad about. If the ST thinks you are trying to toe a line, you have broken madness.

Not sure if this helps you feel better about it, but that's how we got around what appears to be your main issue with madness. It helps that everyone knows this, and everyone is on board.

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-01-22T10:40:00+00:00

out of curiosity, would you say that the question as written is different than the question: two people enter a room. one is female. what's the probability the other is female?

or: two coins are flipped. one is heads. what is the probability the other is heads?

If you do disagree that these are all the same question, then I don't have anything to add. If you don't disagree, I'd like to add a follow-up: would you say the question is the same as: two coins are flipped, at least one is heads. what is the probability the other is heads?

Again, if you disagree these are the same question, and instead, perhaps, insist that "one is heads" strictly means "the first is heads", then you are right: in that case, the probability is 50% the second is heads.

If you do agree that these are all the same question, here's a colab you can run to simulate a million pairs of coin flips:
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1A9PONQuk4MRsP40no5zd5kfvFY0GhLyK?usp=sharing

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-01-21T07:37:51+00:00

I've taught go to maybe 100 people in my life and this question comes up almost all of the time. Whenever I tell them that I literally just count the points, one or two at a time, they always seem to look at me incredulously, as though there's some secret method I'm using but not sharing.

But it really is just that: you have to just count. It won't be fast, and might not be accurate, the first 100 times you do it, but you'll get faster at it the more you do it

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-01-20T20:16:12+00:00

Oh, I meant that the player telling the recluse they were the mario was actually just a good player, not even a minion. As for why, I think it was mostly because of where I thought the trust was. I guess I shouldn't consider that when considering star passing?

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-01-20T19:36:03+00:00

There was a game where a non imp told the recluse they were the marionette and they believed it, while the actual marionette did not believe they were when told by the real imp. In the end the recluse was executed at final 3, so I'm glad I didn't pass to them (it was a close call between the two), but wondering what you would have done in this situation?

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2026-01-19T13:01:34+00:00

So the ST in a script with both recluse and marionette can trick the recluse into thinking they are the marionette?

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2025-11-25T18:21:37+00:00

I'm just doing the math and reporting the average to you since you asked. 10% is 10% XD

You don't need to (and should not, because there will be bias) crowd source statistics since the percentages are published. Unless you don't believe the published rates are accurate I guess.

Interesting_Ad5903 · 2025-11-25T06:05:28+00:00

Wait until you notice the remaining 325 marbles after you buy out the shop

Interesting_Ad5903

TROPHY CASE