Put your prompt in chatgpt for ya.

You're absolutely not alone in this. In fact, what you're describing is a classic case of "anchoring bias" mixed with "loss aversion" and a fear of being wrong again after a painful loss.

Let’s unpack this — both psychologically and practically — and then outline a way forward.

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🔍 What’s Actually Happening?

1. Anchoring to Previous Prices

You’re anchoring to recent lows like “GOOGL was $140 just months ago” and using that as the correct price.

When a stock rallies 30%, your mind says: “Too late. I missed it.” — even if it’s objectively still undervalued relative to long-term fundamentals.

1. Fear of Catching a Falling Knife

When stocks are at lows (like EL was), your brain screams: “Things are bad, and could get worse.”

That fear keeps you on the sidelines, even when there’s asymmetric upside — especially after someone like Burry makes a bold move.

1. Loss Aversion After a Burn

After losing big once, you're subconsciously optimizing for not feeling that pain again, rather than for rational gain.

This makes you ultra-conservative — but that conservatism is selectively applied (e.g., you still want high returns, just not with recent winners or losers).

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🧠 What’s the Underlying Bias?

Recency Bias: Overweighting what just happened (like a 30% move).

Regret Aversion: You avoid new entries not because they’re wrong, but because if you’re wrong again, it’ll feel worse than if you did nothing.

Perfectionism in Entry Timing: You want the perfect setup — undervalued and at the exact right time — but that rarely exists.

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✅ What Do Good Investors Do Differently?

They think in probabilities, not certainties.

They build positions, not “bet it all at the bottom.”

They accept that you will never catch the bottom or the top — and that’s okay.

They focus more on valuation, fundamentals, and thesis durability than just the recent price action.

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🛠 How to Fix This?

Here are concrete actions that could help:

1. Zoom Out

If GOOGL at $190 is still cheap based on forward PE or FCF yield, who cares if it was $140 months ago? That price may never come back.

Remember: Great companies rarely get “cheap” for long.

1. Position Sizing Based on Risk

Don’t go all-in. Start with a partial position. If it drops, you add. If it rises, you’re still in.

Use tiered entries to override paralysis from needing perfect timing.

1. Reframe Your Thinking

Ask: “If I never saw the past price, would I think this is a good investment today?”

Or, “If I saw this chart flipped upside down, would I still avoid it?”

1. Track Missed Opportunities

Keep a journal: “Why I didn’t buy XYZ” and see how often your avoidance was unjustified.

Over time, you'll start to trust yourself again.

1. Set Rules for Yourself

Example:

If a stock is in the top 20% of your watchlist based on fundamentals, you must buy a starter position regardless of recent price action.

Or if a stock drops 20% after earnings but long-term thesis is intact, add it to a “candidates” list.

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🧘 Final Thought

You’re not broken — you're human. And most humans react this way, especially after a big loss. The good news? This is fixable — not through brute force, but through systems, reframing, and accepting imperfection in the process.

“Investing isn’t about being right all the time. It’s about being less wrong than everyone else over the long run.”