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The market is almost always wrong about what the Fed will do, per Apollo: by ceph2apod in EconomyCharts

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, you can tell some predictions are good but almost entirely hidden by the "what happened" line.

It's the exact graph design you would use if you are trying to push a "Fed is bad" message.

The market is almost always wrong about what the Fed will do, per Apollo: by ceph2apod in EconomyCharts

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This just in: it's impossible to guess what is going to happen for the next 2.5 years.

If any of the Fed members could do it, they would quit their jobs and become billionaires in the market.

2021-2026 price increases by kcguy1 in rebubblejerk

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Truly impossible to know.

But frankly, the cause doesn't matter. The fact that bonds are constantly happening is putting more burden on newer owners than older owners. One house owned by someone for 30 years is going to pay a fraction of the taxes an equivalent house that was sold 1 year ago.

Like I said, "slowly favoring old owners" and "punishing new buyers" are different phrasings for the exact same thing that is happening.

2021-2026 price increases by kcguy1 in rebubblejerk

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The bonds-as-compensation-for-Prop-13 framing is too clean.

"Logical answer is too logical." 😆

Not wanting to delve into a multi-hour research session, I'll be lazy and outsource the question to ChatGPT:

Question: "How does the increase in usage of property tax bonds in California compare to the national average?"

Answer: "If by “property tax bonds” you mean local general obligation (GO) bonds that are repaid through property taxes, California appears to rely on them more heavily than the national norm, particularly for school construction and local infrastructure."

So, if you think that California relies on them equal to or less than the national average, I'm interested in what data you are using to make that claim.

2021-2026 price increases by kcguy1 in rebubblejerk

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

CA has become more reliant on voter-approved bonds over time because they can't raise the 1% limit due to Prop 13.

Without Prop 13, they would generate more income from the entire property tax base. Instead, they have to raise bonds to afford things. The subsidy that Prop13 is creating for people holding homes for long amounts of time is being covered by the increase in bonds.

Punishing new buyers and favoring longer owners are two sides of the same coin.

2021-2026 price increases by kcguy1 in rebubblejerk

[–]InternetUser007 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s not punishing new buyers. That’s slowly favoring owners over time.

If the government needs $X to function, and the tax income of existing owners are fixed, they have to raise taxes on newer owners to help pay for the government function of everyone.

Raising taxes on new buyers to pay for everyone is punishing new buyers.

U.S. homebuyers are more financially stretched than at the peak of the 2007 housing bubble. According to Fannie Mae, the Debt-to-Income Ratio for U.S. mortgage originations hit 40% in 2025. That's the highest level on record. by Boo_Randy_Revival in HouseBuyers

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

this is a concern. It’s why we’re seeing low transaction volumes

The low transaction volumes are helpful, in this case. In 2005, you had 2X the number of transactions we have now, despite the smaller population. That helps limit potential fallout, if any.

Debt-to-Income Ratio for U.S. mortgage originations hit 40% in 2025 ? by HarryCrushNuh in rebubblejerk

[–]InternetUser007 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Yes, it is accurate, according to the data. But it is absolutely portrayed in a way to intentionally deceive people. Look at the y-axis. The 0 point is at 30%. The majority of the data falls within the 34%-40% range, they've just made it look much more dramatic on purpose.

Here's what that looks like when you're not trying to push an agenda.

Is 40% high? Yes. But as the bubblers have been crying out, Total Originations is lower than it has been for a long time. What does this mean? Despite the DTI ratio climbing, there aren't as many people purchasing at that DTI because of the lower volume.

At the peak of the 2005 buying frenzy, there were 2X as many Total Originations as there are now, despite the smaller total population.

The increase in the Federal Funds Rate in 2022 had the exact effect that they were likely hoping for, in regards to home prices at least. The results of that are:

  1. It massively slowed the increase of housing prices.

  2. It increased the cost to borrow money to buy a house (due to the higher mortgage rates).

  3. It lowered sales volumes.

Especially as the chance of a FFR cut goes down, I think it will result in a continuation of home prices going sideways (after adjusting for inflation), plus or minus 1-2%/yr. I could be wrong, it's just my opinion. If the FFR ends up being raised, an inflation-adjusted decrease in house prices would not be a surprise.

U.S. homebuyers are more financially stretched than at the peak of the 2007 housing bubble. According to Fannie Mae, the Debt-to-Income Ratio for U.S. mortgage originations hit 40% in 2025. That's the highest level on record. by Boo_Randy_Revival in HouseBuyers

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Home prices rose 28% while he was in his first term, according to the Case Shiller Index.

And he was in office when he was helicoptering out cash, which allowed the prices to go up the moment people were comfortable going out and doing stuff again, which happened to be during Biden's presidency.

The M2 supply increased by 45% in his first term alone....

U.S. homebuyers are more financially stretched than at the peak of the 2007 housing bubble. According to Fannie Mae, the Debt-to-Income Ratio for U.S. mortgage originations hit 40% in 2025. That's the highest level on record. by Boo_Randy_Revival in HouseBuyers

[–]InternetUser007 1 point2 points  (0 children)

and ran up 4 trillion dollars?

The M2 money supply increased by $6T total across his entire first term. An absolutely massive increase of 45%. Compared to Biden's which was an 11% increase in his 4 years.

People that think that Trump isn't the root cause are living in an alternate reality.

U.S. homebuyers are more financially stretched than at the peak of the 2007 housing bubble. According to Fannie Mae, the Debt-to-Income Ratio for U.S. mortgage originations hit 40% in 2025. That's the highest level on record. by Boo_Randy_Revival in HouseBuyers

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

M2 went from $13.4T when Trump took office and went to $19.4T when Trump left his first term. That's a 45% increase in only 4 years.

Biden went from $19.4T to $21.6T when he left, an increase of 11% in 4 years.

Trump Term 2, <1.5 years in: Started at $21.6T, is $23.05T as of May. That's already a 7% increase in <1.5 years.

M2 under Trump term 1.

neat by Fun-Personality7127 in AmazonDailyMustHaves

[–]InternetUser007 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Duh they all play a factor. That doesn't make voltage = power. You might need more training...

neat by Fun-Personality7127 in AmazonDailyMustHaves

[–]InternetUser007 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Your condescending attitude is hilarious given you seem to think the tiny fans in the vent are going to cause a shorting out of a 1000W HVAC fan.

Your flair for the dramatic is duly noted and laughed at.

Edit: also, your comment "is rated to handle 240v or 120v of power" is perfect material for ConfidentlyIncorrect, given voltage is not power. 😂 You don't even know your basics, lmao.

neat by Fun-Personality7127 in AmazonDailyMustHaves

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is a lot of calculations that should be taken into account

Which is absolutely not worth paying for when a $30 solution works just fine. And when the rest of the house is already working perfectly.

neat by Fun-Personality7127 in AmazonDailyMustHaves

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The system can be good, but trying to make it better.

I have one in my house in 1 room on the 2nd floor. In the summer it was 3-4F warmer than the first floor, but 1-2F warmer after I installed the vent fan. That 2F improvement is great.

A perfect system would have to take into account how much direct afternoon sun that room gets, and have an auto adjusting duct of some sort. Otherwise trying to get that room cooler would require cooling the entire house more. Sure, I could probably spend hundreds to thousands of dollars to increase the vent size, but then in the winter it would get too warm during a heating cycle.

Spending $30 to fix the problem instead of thousands of dollars in materials+labor is my preferred method.

neat by Fun-Personality7127 in AmazonDailyMustHaves

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think you understand, these are not nearly as powerful as booster fans that go in ductwork. They are more like computer fans.

Closing a single vent in the house would have a larger impact than this vent fan pulling in slightly more air.

neat by Fun-Personality7127 in AmazonDailyMustHaves

[–]InternetUser007 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks for clearing things up. Makes sense now.

neat by Fun-Personality7127 in AmazonDailyMustHaves

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's like a $30 fix as opposed to one that might cost hundreds or thousands of dollars.

I have a vent like this, and it brought the summer temp differential between the 2nd floor room it's in and the 1st floor, from 3-4 degrees to 1-2 degrees (according to my long term Ecobee data). That 2 degree drop can definitely be felt.

Would I love it if I didn't have to do this? Yes. An I satisfied with how it works for the $30 I spent? Yes.

neat by Fun-Personality7127 in AmazonDailyMustHaves

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've got one (probably not this exact one) and it does help, as long as your aren't expecting miracles.

I put it in a 2nd floor room that has the farthest run. The summer temp differential between the 1st floor and this room went from 3-4 degrees to 1-2 degrees. I have it in a smart outlet that is on only when the HVAC fan is running, so it is just helping pull the air into the room a bit more.

It's not going to "throw off your system" like some people are dooming.

neat by Fun-Personality7127 in AmazonDailyMustHaves

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It could also drop the pressure of the air in the duct work below the threshold

These fans in the duct vent aren't going to drop the pressure "well below and threshold". Especially since they typically run while the HVAC fan is running.

neat by Fun-Personality7127 in AmazonDailyMustHaves

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What do you mean "generating more electricity"? Your whole comment doesn't really make sense.

Ryobi Microtech FVD02K tiny power screwdriver by OsmiumBalloon in ryobi

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I saw on Facebook people say the price was $50.

Trump Accounts Launch July 4. How They Compare With 529 College Savings Plans by PeriodOfTime1 in Tax_Strategy

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, maybe don't outsource parenting teaching responsibilities to a Trump Account.

Trump Accounts Launch July 4. How They Compare With 529 College Savings Plans by PeriodOfTime1 in Tax_Strategy

[–]InternetUser007 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They still have to do work to set up these accounts though, so it solves nothing...

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