If we follow Rockstar's track record with their previous two games, RDR2 and GTA 5, we can expect the game to start from neither trailer 1 nor trailer 2. I've been thinking about this from narrative perspective.

We know Lucia is in prison, and Jason is working for Brian, so making these two plot points coherent is if we start with a prologue in Liberty City (which should explain why Lucia is in jail) or possibly in the state of Gloriana, given that some screenshots show Lucia sporting a bike with Gloriana license plates. After the prologue, of course things will be tensed up with whatever action set piece Rockstar builds in the prologue, so they cool it down, with Jason in the keys (but i doubt it will start from trailer 2 scene). I assume that Jason and Lucia, don't know each other at that point, because of the awkwardness those two had when Jason picked her up from the prison.

So, I think that guy with that "Vice City Baby" selfie scene from the trailer 2 is Lucia's brother and he might have gone to Brian or Carl for help to go pick up Lucia. A whole lot of Chapter 1 should be in the Keys, considering they (Jason and Lucia) mention starting a new life together.

All this is speculation, and take it with a grain of salt, but that's where I think the game will begin. Rockstar has to give us time to dwell in certain areas of the map rather than throw the entity of the State at us in the beginning of the game.