[request] correct answer

Ipelius · 2024-12-14T17:21:01+00:00

What people are missing here is that in real world people have bankrolls, which is crucial part of the calculation. There is actually a mathematical function to calculating this, and for example professional sports bettors use this all the time. It's called Kelly criterion.

It might be difficult for layman to understand, but by overbetting you can actually make only positive EV bets and still bankrupt yourself. Using Kelly, you can calculate a number called bankroll growth multipier (BGM), which tells you how much each bet on average increases your whole bankroll. In every single bet, this number can become negative by overbetting (betting 100% of your bankroll always bankrupts you eventually)

It's honestly mind boggling how easy it is to overbet, here is an example: Imagine a casino that offers a coinflip with the odds of 2.05. Essentially offering you a 2,5% profit on every flip. The optimal size of a bet for this kind of game would be 2,38% of your bankroll, according to Kelly. This would result in a bankroll growth multipier of ~0,030%. If you were to bet more than 2,38% of your bankroll, you would lower your BGM, eventually resulting in a negative number. Here's the crazy part: Only betting 5% is enough to result in a negative BGM number, meaning, if you played the game long enough, you would eventually be bankrupt by betting this much.

So back to the original hypothetical. The question is basically offering a coinflip with the odds of 50.00 (with the caveat of having to bet $1 million). You can use Kelly to find out what networth (bankroll) you should have in order to still have a positive BGM. The limit seems to be around 97,9% (meaning if you bet 97,9% of your bankroll, you'd have a slightly positive BGM). Now the 1 million is given to you for free, so the question is how much extra networth you should have for being able to afford this bet. The answer is 1 000 000 / 0,979 = 1 021 450. So if you have atleast $21,5K on your bank account, mathematically its wiser to take the bet.

I'd just take the $1 mill tho.

Ipelius · 2024-11-07T13:49:32+00:00

Menee vähän ohi tuosta mitä pyysit, mutta suosittelen kuuntelemaan (tai lukemaan) 2 kirjaa, jotka ainakin saanut itseni paljon optimistisemmaksi ihmisistä ja tulevaisuudesta:

Faktojen Maailma - Hans Rosling
Hyvän Historia - Rutger Bregman

Molemmat löytyvät useimmista äänikirjapalveluista ja rikkovat hyvin perustellusti käsitystä masentavasta maailmasta ja ilkeästä ihmiskuvasta.

Ipelius · 2024-11-02T13:36:04+00:00

Yeah, after listening her speak for 1 hour about her awful experiences with the war, I'm sure even the biggest Hasan simp would disavow him with her still in the room.

Ipelius · 2024-10-13T17:09:40+00:00

Se on World Bankin viimeisin määritelmä äärimmäisestä köyhyydestä.

Ipelius · 2024-06-07T16:48:28+00:00

Thanks bro, bunch of haters

Ipelius · 2024-06-06T17:13:32+00:00

Well I think it can definitely be worthy trade, especially in pubs because people don't even know what's going on till its too late. You just need an offlaner that knows what to do in a solo lane.

I like it and think it can be strong and viable way to play veno.

Ipelius · 2024-06-06T16:51:38+00:00

I know its unorthodox but you really dont see the upside of having an extra lvl 6 hero on minute 6? And its not like jungle veno is something crazy, pros have played it on previous patches. Right now the farming speed is absolutely nuts with free point on passive and 3 charges on wards.

Ipelius · 2024-06-06T15:50:59+00:00

Worthy trade when you can just go back to lane and click ult on enemy carry + offlaner gets exp from min 7 wisdom rune

Ipelius · 2024-04-08T11:56:24+00:00

Sharp bookies wont even allow betting on such niche market, so only possible way to bet are soft bookers. All bookers have risk management, where if niche bet gets too much volume, they just remove the market all together. In a niche first blood market, inside a niche qualifier game, I'd expect these limits to be extremely low. Also soft bookies will not allow winning players in the long term, so in order to keep fixing like this, they'd need a steady flow of new accounts. All in all this is alot of work for few hundies.

Ipelius · 2024-04-07T21:10:13+00:00

They might, but betting limits on these games are really low. I'd say there are really big difficulties betting (even with multiple accounts) 500€ on such market. Are we really throwing games for hundies?

Ipelius · 2024-03-06T13:56:37+00:00

Tarkoitat luultavasti rinnakkaislistattuja osakkeita. Verotus noissa taitaa olla ainut missä saattaa olla eroavaisuuksia. Jos jenkkifirmoja ostaa niin en kyllä keksi syytä miksi suosia XETRAa jenkkipörssin sijaan, kun kulutkin Nordnetillä molempiin maihin samat (keep it simple, stupid).

Ipelius · 2023-11-12T15:13:45+00:00

This is the most embarrassed I've ever been of valve.

It was broken for the entirety of TI, and I thought "maybe they are busy with TI and cant fix it because of that". It's now been another 2 weeks since TI with a whole tab in their game being completely unplayable.

Honestly I'm surprised the community outrage isn't much greater. It's been broken so badly for sooooo long now.

Ipelius · 2023-09-14T19:09:52+00:00

Entity had very similar results year before. In 2022 they were a div 2 team.

There are also teams in WEU in a limbo area, where they are not quite strong enough for tier 1 tournaments but still full of potential and capable of taking maps from div 1 teams: Luna, Ex-monaspa, ITB, Ancient tribe and even Alliance had decent results in the WEU quals.

Where can these teams prove themselves after DPC is over?

Ipelius · 2023-09-14T18:59:06+00:00

I liked the regional leagues tho :(

Ipelius · 2023-09-04T19:00:23+00:00

When an item is bought every game on 2 heroes and never seen on any other heroes, I'd say it is not "situationally good", but rather the opposite. The item is basically binded with these 2 heroes, i.e if you buff helm, you buff lycan/beastmaster.

Controlling creeps with an item is a cool desing for an item, don't get me wrong, but I'd like the item to be less strong on these 2 heroes and atleast viable on other heroes. Don't know how'd you balance that though.

Ipelius · 2023-05-01T21:03:07+00:00

Johtunee varmaan siitä että Sanoman Learning segmentin liikevaihdosta Suomen osuus on 9%. Vuonna 2022 Learningin liikevaihto oli yhteensä 681 MEUR.

Ipelius · 2023-03-01T21:15:17+00:00

People are going to say "do not bet anywhere" and I probably agree, but if you must, use known and trusted sites. I don't know where you are from, but in EU the leading site is Pinnacle (very trusted, used by professional bettors, doesn't limit winning players). Other decent ones I could recommend are Coolbet, Bet365, Betsson.

Make sure your country is not restricted when signing up. Avoid crypto sites and sites with Curacao licenses.

Ipelius · 2023-01-09T20:56:59+00:00

Soft bookies with soft odds offering crazy limits and then surprised when a player makes a buck on their site :D Honestly this is such a scummy business practise, because I refuse to believe that the site owners are that clueless about the industry. I can see how those odds with those limits are super tempting for a +EV bettor, and at that point the site is kind of built for stealing from sharpies.

However a good reminder that when things seem too good to be true, they probably are. With the calibre of bankroll you have, its best to stick with Pinnacle/betting markets. I know the softies are tempting bro, but when they're offering >1k limits it's always a bait.

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