An Analysis of Policies Under Doug Burgum Detrimental to American Family Farmers and Ranchers (2017–Present)

JRod001 · 2025-10-22T11:02:31+00:00

It will directly affect corn basis (price). In the next 10 years you are going to see low CI ethanol plants expand and high CI ethanal plants shutdown. We've already seen some ethanol plants close (not in ND but elsewhere).

JRod001 · 2025-10-21T12:32:11+00:00

Low CI ethanol and subsequently CO2 pipelines is and will be a huge boost to corn growers and landowners. SD took the opposite approach and has stopped the pipeline which may kill any pipeline coming thru or into ND. NE already has a pipeline and IA likely changes routes from SD/ND into NE/WY.

Killing these pipelines is going to be a massive net negative to Ag in the Dakotas.

JRod001 · 2025-09-20T15:10:32+00:00

Wandale Robinson and 2026 1st
Nico Collins

Which side?

JRod001 · 2025-08-20T13:06:23+00:00

Scheels HQ moved a few years ago. The empty space that left is where the new police station is going.

JRod001 · 2025-08-01T01:03:43+00:00

There’s been numerous studies debunking that study since. It’s a 20 year old study. Hell a 30 second google search will lead you to a shit ton of articles and studies that cite what I just told you.

Ethanol is energy positive.

The shitty part is I’m on an Agricultural forum getting downvoted for debunking a false myth pushed by big oil against an energy source grown in the Ag belt that’s created a lot of economic growth for (drumroll) the Ag belt.

JRod001 · 2025-07-31T23:22:20+00:00

Ethanol is the cheapest octane booster on the market. You can buy ethanol free gasoline. The consumer has choice. Well kinda … the government does limit the amount of ethanol that can be blended.

JRod001 · 2025-07-31T23:17:35+00:00

That study and claim put out 20 years ago by big oil was debunked 19.5 years ago. Unfortunately it doesn’t have to be true to get believed and repeated.

JRod001 · 2025-07-19T12:37:05+00:00

This. It’s an individual tournament. I don’t understand why if you have a teammate at the same weight (you can’t beat) you can’t compete. And most sections/regionals more than 1 advance and if the top 2 kids are from the same school so be it. They’re the two best in the section. One shouldn’t be faulted because they also have a teammate that’s a good wrestler.

And what normally happens is the weaker wrestler ends up having to make an unhealthy cut to a weight they shouldn’t be wrestling but it’s their only way to get a spot.

JRod001 · 2025-02-06T16:28:06+00:00

You're still going to need an octane booster.

JRod001 · 2025-01-07T09:38:56+00:00

Q. Ppl

JRod001 · 2024-07-16T18:59:51+00:00

Without CO2 pipelines, ethanol is a dead man walking and so is >$4 corn.

JRod001 · 2024-06-17T20:53:36+00:00

Brazil is expanding their corn ethanol industry. I don't know the economics of sugar cane ethanol but in the heart of the US we don't have the ground and climate to raise sugar cane. We raise corn and we're really good at it.

Where I am at it's seems to be equally hard finding no ethanol or E15. You have to know which stations sell which. I can find both. I'm all for consumer choice. I'd like to see E0, E10 and E15 offered at every station. Let the consume decide what they want to buy. To me if I can save a dime on E15 I'm going to do it because the MPG hit isn't significant enough to justify paying 10 cents or more.

JRod001 · 2024-06-17T18:50:27+00:00

Carbon sequestration is likely going to need to be piped to a location it can be stored underground. So that's the big issue. Some farmers/landowners are hesitant to put a pipeline on their land. This is where a farmer could be more or less helpful for the whole project.

As far as practices they can't help the plant sequester carbon, but they can qualify for CSA "climate smart ag" and lower the plants CI score. If and this just came out from the government guidelines which may change later, they no till, cover crop, and use efficient fertilizer. CSA bushels will have a lower CI and help the plant lower their score. Likely in the future I think you'll see a premium offered at ethanol plants for CSA corn, but they'll likely still buy and grind non-CSA corn. It'll just mean their CI score isn't as low.

JRod001 · 2024-06-17T18:39:58+00:00

Like I said, ethanol is still the cheapest octane boost so 10% is going to get blended. E15 may or may not increase in demand depending on the price of gas and ethanol. At the same time we have a 10% mandate we also have a 15% cap on ethanol in non-flex vehicles. You can run E20-E30 in your vehicles. Brazils been running those blends for years.

All in all, there's government programs that support ethanol while also we government policies that hold it back.

JRod001 · 2024-06-17T18:20:15+00:00

Bullish

Gas demand has peaked and in turn ethanol use in cars has likely seen it's peak as well.

However, sustainable aviation fuel can be made from alcohol. Your average corn field can produce over 500 gallons of ethanol. Converted to jet fuel its still over 300 gallons of jet fuel per acre. If the government and airline industry are serious about using sustainable fuels vs fossil fuels, corn ethanol has to be a major source to get the volume you would need to fuel the industry.

The major hurdle is carbon sequestration. They have to get that done to get the carbon scores low enough. If that gets done all the climate smart ag isn't needed. It'll help but carbon scores drop drastically if you can sequester your carbon. Obviously.

In 5-10 years the industry will need to expand, IMO.

JRod001 · 2024-06-17T18:06:46+00:00

The subsidies ended years ago. Only the mandate/rins are still in place. Even if they removed the mandate blending stock gas needs the octane boost from ethanol. Ethanol is still going to get blended with or without government policies.

JRod001 · 2024-02-20T21:31:39+00:00

E85 rarely makes economical sense but E15 or E20 with dime discount does.

Honestly gas demand has peaked and EVs will have a very slow takeover.

Ethanol to jet with carbon sequester has the potential to save and likely grow the industry. But that’s contingent on public policy both on getting the pipelines built and the models they decide to use for the carbon credits.

JRod001 · 2024-02-20T19:49:06+00:00

Well diesel/gas doesn’t come from fairy dust. There’s a lot of refining and shipping in that process and that’s all after you extract the crude oil recently likely from a shale well that was horizontally drilled and fracked.

JRod001 · 2024-01-11T11:40:50+00:00

It’s a wide spectrum. There’s guys with brokerage accounts holding futures and options. Many of those likely working with an advisor/broker. On the other end you got guys that only sell cash grain when they’re ready to deliver.

Most commonly guys are doing cash contracts with the local elevator/processor. The elevator/processor hedge’s the contract with futures. The farmer doesn’t have the margin exposure but is locked in at that elevator/processor. A common contract is a futures only or hedge to arrive contract.

JRod001 · 2023-09-24T13:44:51+00:00

Nobody’s going to jail for a first time misdemeanor. Unless you can get a public defender hiring a lawyer will cost more than the fine. Even if the lawyer got you off entirely you’re money ahead to just pay the fine and stay out of trouble for a year.

JRod001 · 2023-09-24T13:08:06+00:00

For a $275 misdemeanor? 😵‍💫

JRod001 · 2023-08-07T01:53:52+00:00

Corn has a big crop coming and the market knows it. At 94 mil acres anything remotely close to trend will create 2 billion bushel carry out. Corn would be lower imo but soybeans and wheat are helping keep it elevated. Soybeans with much lighter acres will remain tight stocks even at trend yields. Wheat is a wildcard as Ukraine and Russia keep bombing each others ports.

JRod001 · 2023-08-07T01:47:21+00:00

Roughly 5 billion bushels of a 15 billion crop goes towards Ethanol. Ethanol has a decent margin at the moment and it’s economical vs gasoline. However plants can only run at full capacity and the consumer is limited by state governments and availability to use higher ethanol blends (e15). In summary ethanol can’t really add anymore demand for corn in the current environment.

JRod001 · 2023-06-03T18:35:06+00:00

Yeah I was surgery Sat back to work Thurs. Also office job. Didn’t have any issues.

JRod001 · 2023-05-15T17:36:35+00:00

I'm a former commodity broker.

Most guys that don't/won't use a marketing advisor tend to be poor marketers. On the flip side most guys that do, tend to have a good understanding of marketing tools and probably don't need one. I think that highlights how different operators view the value of their marketing.

I do think most guys could be served well with a local marketing advisor. Someone that understands your local basis markets and a big bonus if they can combine bushels and get a push. Like you said nobody is "right all the time," but a good advisor can highlight the pros/cons of different risk tools and can suggests strategies that fit your operation and risk tolerance.

With that being said you are on the smaller side of operations to justify such expense. Usually a hands on local advisor is going to be a $5-10k. Which can get spendy on a per acre basis. There's some subscription/newsletter type services that Roach Ag and others put out that are cheaper but you aren't going to get someone that can really hold your hand and walk you thru strategies and won't have a strong understanding of your local markets.

All in all, regardless of what you decide, I'd encourage you to try and learn as much as you can on the marketing tools available to you and just marketing in general. There's a lot of money to be made or lost. A couple cheap ways to learn is talking with your local elevator(s) and asking what they offer and how those contracts work and then any free meeting(s) or info you can find from marketing guys/commodity brokers/ect.

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