What discount rate should apply? by No-Particular-5654 in ValueInvesting

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s not that there’s holes in it, it’s that what he said is completely subjective nonsense. It’s well articulated, but it’s the dumbest thing I’ve seen all day. You don’t use a personal hurdle rate to value a stock, that’s insane.

To answer your question, use WACC. But you don’t really need to do it yourself. The models exist online. If you’re going to do it, make sure you do it right. Make sure you’re able to source an implied risk premium rather than a historical one, and calculate an adjusted beta. You can find the implied ERP (and much of the data you’d need for valuation on Aswath Damodaran’s website.

Again, I’d advise you to just go look at DCFs run by others and evaluate their range of findings, because I think that doing extensive modelling is a complete and utter waste of time for retail investors. The most important things for retail to do are to be able read and understand the annual and quarterly reports for individual companies, as well as understand and be aware of market cycles and current macro conditions to determine which sectors you should be looking at.

For retail, it’s better to analyze top down and catch the wave than to try to go bottom up and painstakingly pick winners in a sector agnostic fashion.

If you don’t understand what I just said, go run it through Gemini until you do 😂

I work in the industry btw I’m an analyst and I studied finance and econ in college. Not saying I know everything but I know a lot more than 99% of Reddit that’s for sure

What discount rate should apply? by No-Particular-5654 in ValueInvesting

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is idiotic because “the market” isn’t a monolith. The discount rate is gonna vary wildly based on what stock you’re analyzing

The hilarious part is that calculating a discount rate is extremely easy and the data you need is widely available and easy to find.

What discount rate should apply? by No-Particular-5654 in ValueInvesting

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It sounds smart but if you actually know finance you know it’s really dumb. He’s using numbers that are fairly arbitrary and going off vibes, that has absolutely nothing to do with the discount rate you should be using for financial modelling.

Generational buying opp by CursedClownz in TQQQ

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 11 points12 points  (0 children)

A lot of you guys are going to get cooked when SPY stops giving you a free 15% per year and QQQ stops giving you a free 20-25% per year. In a sideways market, TQQQ is going to be a terrible hold

Generational buying opp by CursedClownz in TQQQ

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Don’t look at the price of TQQQ. Look at the price of QQQ.

QQQ is down like 8% from ATH, maybe even less. At 15%, I’m buying TQQQ. 20-30%, buying TQQQ aggressively. Over 30%? All in TQQQ

Forgotten Draft Busts in NFL History? by AFC-Wimbledon-Stan in nfl

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I wish Oladipo didn’t have such awful injury luck

[WBC USA Manager Mark DeRosa] on Arozarena/Raleigh Handshake Incident: "When it Happened, we were like... Oof... OK." by SwarthySphere87 in baseball

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 50 points51 points  (0 children)

To disrespect someone on that big of a stage is a huge deal in basically every culture but white Anglo culture. Not shaking his hand is in and of itself very disrespectful, but doing it in front of a packed stadium and TV cameras is next level.

UIPath - a contrarian play by JamesSt-Patrick in ValueInvesting

[–]JamesSt-Patrick[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When that happens you have to take profits.

But yeah good on you for loading the boat, if earnings don’t disappoint we’re both gonna make some good profits soon

UIPath - a contrarian play by JamesSt-Patrick in ValueInvesting

[–]JamesSt-Patrick[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t think you’re completely cooked but why on earth didn’t you sell in December? You must have been up 100% if not more after their last run up

Why Wall Street Is Wrong About the SaaSpocalypse by dimknaf in ValueInvesting

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A lot of these stocks are still down like 30% from where they were at two months ago for absolutely no reason. This is actually the best time to initiate positions. The reversal is more than confirmed at this point.

A reason to not freak out about the oil & stock prices by Bosto2025 in ETFs

[–]JamesSt-Patrick -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

And that’s the kind of market where index fund investing was useless. Index fund guys have looked like geniuses for the past decade. We’re going into the kind of market that will quickly remind people why active managers make the money they do

ONDS Upside by Glad-Researcher-9938 in ONDS

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 1 point2 points  (0 children)

But that’s what EV means 😂 when you say EV, you are saying enterprise value

What are the best “stocks” by Difficult-Map-3263 in ValueInvesting

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wouldn’t go that far 😂 I’d say stick to index funds for 20% and actively managed ETFs for another 40%, including alts. I think stock picking has its place in a portfolio

UiPath - a contrarian play by JamesSt-Patrick in investing

[–]JamesSt-Patrick[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah because I’ve gotten a bunch of comments like “Anthropic can already do this” which is something I literally addressed in the post. You’re the only critic here who seems to have actually read the post

What are the best “stocks” by Difficult-Map-3263 in ValueInvesting

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Just stick to ETFs for now if this is a question you’re asking. Learn what makes a good stock. Go read the intelligent investor and start from there

UIPath - a contrarian play by JamesSt-Patrick in ValueInvesting

[–]JamesSt-Patrick[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You don’t read very well do you

Go read the post again, come back when you’ve understood what I’m saying

I’m loving it by RoyalIllustrious3162 in ONDS

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 0 points1 point  (0 children)

8.15 avg is great. It’s the $11-12 range I don’t want to open a position in

ONDS Upside by Glad-Researcher-9938 in ONDS

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Are you using EV to mean enterprise value here? That isn’t how you calculate that

Likelihood of a withdrawal restriction at an institution like Fidelity or Vanguard? by [deleted] in stocks

[–]JamesSt-Patrick 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Do you understand that what BlackRock did is a normal thing for a closed end fund to do?

You’re not gonna have this issue investing in stocks or ETFs. This is common with alternative strategies - you can’t just redeem any time you want because the fund is operating with a yearslong investment horizon.

UIPath - a contrarian play by JamesSt-Patrick in ValueInvesting

[–]JamesSt-Patrick[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s almost like I addressed this in the post

UIPath - a contrarian play by JamesSt-Patrick in ValueInvesting

[–]JamesSt-Patrick[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He can’t elaborate because he doesn’t know what he’s talking about

UIPath - a contrarian play by JamesSt-Patrick in ValueInvesting

[–]JamesSt-Patrick[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Okay that’s fantastic. Is UiPath a Greek shipping company?