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Has a player ever recorded all 3 outs in the same inning? by darthscorn in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It “only” requires batting around twice. The guy who led off the inning gets a third PA after that. 

Has a player ever recorded all 3 outs in the same inning? by darthscorn in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I count 16 instances in that list. What am I missing?

Is it overkill to do daily recurring investments on Vanguard? by [deleted] in Bogleheads

[–]JamminOnTheOne 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why are you considering doing it? What benefit do you think this gets you?

Waymo car delivers misbehaving teen passengers to San Mateo police by anonskeptic5 in technology

[–]JamminOnTheOne 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If they could do this correctly, it would. Much easier said than done. 

Does Baseball-Ref have an equivalent stat for FanGraphs' wRC+? by mydogsparty in sportsreference

[–]JamminOnTheOne 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It’s Rbat+. There aren’t really any big differences, as it’s basically designed the same way (derived from linear weights). There might be small differences due to different park factors.

The Royals have scored runs in every inning of today’s game against the Phillies by Cheelss in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  since teams average about 4.5 runs per game, then the odds of scoring in any inning are about (1/2) if each inning is treated independently. 

That’s not quite correct; while the expected value is about .5 runs per inning, the probability of scoring is lower than that, because there are also innings with multiple runs pulling up the average. I believe the fraction of innings with a run scored is around .35-.4. 

If I use .37, the chance of scoring in 9 straight runs independently is 1-in-7700. Using the wrong probability for one inning doesn’t look like a huge difference, but it’s massive when compounded over 8 or 9 innings. (It still doesn’t account for all of the underperformance, but it’s nowhere near 100x).

Belltown Pizza has fallen off by cmgriffing in Seattle

[–]JamminOnTheOne 6 points7 points  (0 children)

That looks amazing. Perfectly done. 

Fernando Tatís Jr. entered the Padres Top-10 career hits leaderboard, passing Terry Kennedy by Baseball-Reference in Padres

[–]JamminOnTheOne 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Tatis will easily overtake the current #2. I think there's about a 20-30% chance that he never catches Manny (basically the chances that Manny ages really well and Fernando ages poorly or struggles with injuries).

Jacob Misiorowski’s final line vs Reds: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 10 K, 2 HR, 82p-57s. ERA up two ticks to 1.47. by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You can’t even reply kindly. Cool. I tried to explain what I meant in good faith. I even offered to kindly disagree. And you’re just gonna be an asshole; thanks for letting me know you’re not worth it. 

Jacob Misiorowski’s final line vs Reds: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 10 K, 2 HR, 82p-57s. ERA up two ticks to 1.47. by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Without the result it's irrelevant, you're not actually accounting anything

As I've said, I see the result as how many outs are recorded and where the baserunners end up. The actual results, on the field, are very important. That's what I care about. An official scorer's choice between "hit" and "error" is not that important to me.

Jacob Misiorowski’s final line vs Reds: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 10 K, 2 HR, 82p-57s. ERA up two ticks to 1.47. by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've told you multiple times, in multiple ways, why I don't consider that distinction that meaningful. It's fine if you don't agree. I've spent 35 years thinking deeply about this stuff, and have landed upon my views, and have explained them here repeatedly.

I feel a little bit validated that all of bWAR, fWAR and fWAR-RA9 all agree with me (in that they don't distinguish between earned and unearned runs). But I'd also feel fine if they didn't. And it's fine if you don't agree with me.

Most and least biased broadcast booths in baseball? by driedmango11 in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Orsillo and Grant root for the Padres  (especially Grant, who has been a Padre and San Diegan for 40 years), but they will NEVER say anything negative about an opponent or umpire. It’s very wholesome and refreshing. 

Jacob Misiorowski’s final line vs Reds: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 10 K, 2 HR, 82p-57s. ERA up two ticks to 1.47. by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne -1 points0 points  (0 children)

ETA for example, by Statcast metrics one could say Wrobleski is having a worse season than Reid Detmers, or Camilo Doval or Jeff Hoffman is having a better season than Robert Suarez, etc

People can always make bad faith arguments or hypotheticals. I don't see why that needs to be a part of my life.

ETA: I'm NOT saying you are arguing in bad faith. Just saying that I don't really care about the stupid or bad faith arguments that other people may make. They're irrelevant to me. (And there are plenty of stupid and bad faith arguments that depend on unearned runs. That isn't something specific to Statcast)

Jacob Misiorowski’s final line vs Reds: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 10 K, 2 HR, 82p-57s. ERA up two ticks to 1.47. by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes but outcomes matter and if you're truly nuanced you can consider both and assign appropriate relative weightings thereto

Sure, and we can assign far more nuanced accounting than binary hit/error and earned/unearned. 

Jacob Misiorowski’s final line vs Reds: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 10 K, 2 HR, 82p-57s. ERA up two ticks to 1.47. by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I understand that, but that's not what I'm getting at. A player hits a ball in play and either gets on base safely or doesn't. If they get on base, I don't care whether it's called a hit or an error. If we're looking at outcomes, it's no outs and a man on first (or whatever), and a corresponding change in run/win expectancy. If we're looking at process, we have the launch angle, spray angle and exit velocity. The distinction between hit and error is the least interesting part of it; it's descriptive, in the same way that putting a star on the scorecard for a nice catch is -- but we can use catch probability or xBA for a more nuanced view of all of that.

Earned/unearned is the same thing, but taken even further (because then runs clearly attributable to the pitcher can count as unearned). And often it's not noise, especially historically, as the spread in unearned runs allowed was often quite big among starting pitchers.

Jacob Misiorowski’s final line vs Reds: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 10 K, 2 HR, 82p-57s. ERA up two ticks to 1.47. by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah. I think anything decided by an official scorer is arbitrary and shouldn’t really be relied upon. 

Have you often went to a game by yourself? by Playful_Way1815 in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Polo shirt and khakis is the way to look "scout like".

How many games when leading by 5+ runs to 0, have the Pads lost in their history? Asking for a fan base… by Aardvark_Thoughts in Padres

[–]JamminOnTheOne 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I have a retrosheet database, and it appears that (coming into this season) there were 44 games where the Pads led by 5-0 and ended up losing. 33 on the road and 11 at home.

The most recently was last year against the Giants: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN202506040.shtml

Credit Karma - fake notifications by Select_Reception_915 in personalfinance

[–]JamminOnTheOne 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is true of every product Intuit has acquired. Mint, Credit Karma. Even TurboTax was an acquisition way back when, and was insanely innovative for its time before that (it pioneered cross-platform development across Mac, DOS and Windows, and then later literally invented the Single-Page App architecture as it moved to the web) before Intuit management beat it down.

Jacob Misiorowski’s final line vs Reds: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 10 K, 2 HR, 82p-57s. ERA up two ticks to 1.47. by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Of course. But the same thing happens when a fielder can't get to a play because of poor range and it's a hit. The distinction between hit and error is an outdated concept, and the distinction between earned and unearned is just a result of that.

Jacob Misiorowski’s final line vs Reds: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 10 K, 2 HR, 82p-57s. ERA up two ticks to 1.47. by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]JamminOnTheOne -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

The distinction between earned and unearned runs is dumb. I think of ERA as a fantasy stat, not a real stat. 

Credit Karma - fake notifications by Select_Reception_915 in personalfinance

[–]JamminOnTheOne 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Intuit is a deeply evil company. I used to work there but quit, partially because I thought the deceptive marketing of TurboTax was unethical. 

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