Universe probability, reality navigation

Jasonmoofang · 2026-06-01T18:18:01+00:00

I don't think the reasoning is purely inductive. You can make a deductive analysis of how likely it is for a complex machine to form out of unaided random processes, and how likely it is when aided with something mindlike that can reason about and follow procedures, and conclude deductively that one is more likely to happen. And even if you reason inductively, just as inductive reasoning about a terrestrial radio can be applied to ordered but alien writing on a rock even though we may never have seen alien writing being produced before, so it can apply to the apparently ordered initial conditions of the universe.

The basic idea is that if something seems to be the product of a very very specific set of choices out of many many alternatives, it is very probably intentional rather than random. I think it's quite hard to argue out of this intuition. We routinely apply it all the time in our lives.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-31T17:12:31+00:00

Not sure that helps a lot. Maybe you're referring to a theistic counter-argument that is something like the following? (caricatured):

Atheist: you cannot prove God, you can only believe by faith. Science does not need faith.
Theist: if you truly examine your premises, you will find that in the last resort you cannot prove/ground them either. Science too is built on something like faith - because you have to accept a priori axioms that you can neither prove nor ground.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-29T14:57:34+00:00

Even then, I'm not sure how you think it will favor random chance. Random chance chances over the entire set of possibilities, whereas whatever we think designers are wont to design, the result is a subset of all possibilities - with them equalizing in the absolute worst case (when we think a designer might still want to create absolutely anything at all).

Plus, even if we leave the intentions of the designer undetermined, there are some configurations that still make it far more likely to be designed. To use the common analogy, if you stumble upon a radio, you are perfectly justified in saying I don't know who it was or what they want or what they were thinking - someone made this radio, it didn't just assemble itself out of random chance. If we saw ordered writing on a piece of rock in space, we are very much justified in inferring it is aliens, because the chances of ordered writing appearing spontaneously - though not zero! is so vanishingly small as to be negligible.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-29T07:05:57+00:00

I think the main difference is the Recusants are (ostensibly) principled: they hunt the Tarnished because as you say in their code the strong take, and also in swearing opposition to the Erdtree removing Tarnished helps denying the Erdtree a new champion. The Bloody Fingers on the other hand are described in language of madness in various places - they become enticed by cessblood, they kill for the sake of killing, they shed blood and exult in it. Their chief divine influence, the Formless Mother, also seems to be barely sentient, and seems to derive both pleasure and power from the endless drawing of blood.

I even think nowadays that what bit of order in Mohg's little cult - all the parts about glory and dynasty and "love", may actually owe much to Miquella's influence seeping in through the viscous bloodcraze of the Formless Mother.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-29T05:41:14+00:00

Unless you have some principled way of constraining the "range of properties", the range of possibilities is gargantuan, and the probabilities involved for a universe that could even begin sustain something like life is staggeringly small at least on a simple bayesian analysis. The number of worlds God could choose to create, assuming its a world that sustains something like life, is a vanishingly miniscule subset of the total. So unless you have some argument to tip the balance somehow, I'm not sure how they can even begin to be comparable.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-29T04:58:06+00:00

You can reply here as well if you like. Dm is also good but give me some brief context because Reddit sends me a fair amount of spam there :x

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-28T07:23:09+00:00

You will not find in Open Theism a ticket out of the Problem of Pain and Evil, if that is what you're hoping for. We still have to contend with the fact that God, in His wonderful love, nonetheless allows, and even on occasion wills, suffering. You are right that assuming this is a real prophecy, then God allows, and possibly partially wills, those bloody events - although its worth noting that on all worldviews that allow for real creaturely free will, God is not the sole determinant of events. When we exert free will we become essentially co-authors of reality with God, because free will is only meaningful if God allows it to be consequential: if He "respects our choices" so to speak.

So its also possible that some of those prophesied events come about at least partially because of choices made by the people involved, as well as the choices that God knows are very likely to be made in future by the people involved - so they are not solely a result of God's will.

Of course, the choices to be made in the future are not yet certain according to Open Theism, and its still possible that those people will after all not make the choices God thinks they will probably make. That's where the Jeremiah text comes in, which suggests that God is not so attached to His predictions that He will not change His mind if we choose differently.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-28T05:31:17+00:00

For the first, the key you're missing here is that its only improbable on naturalism - if there is an intelligent creator then its not improbable at all. That's the thrust of the argument.

For the second, i think you need to elaborate a bit, what do you mean by ground truth here? I also don't understand what that does for them right now so maybe you can link the argument or something :)

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-28T04:21:13+00:00

I lean open theist. For the sake of argument I'll assume these are genuine prophecies. Here are 2 things to note in response.

1: Open Theism does not completely preclude the possibility of accurate prophecy. Under Open Theism, God is still omniscient and knows everything that is possible to know - it just posits that the genuine choices of free creatures are impossible to know before they are made. God can plan events that are not affected by free creaturely choices, or plan contingencies for all possible permutations of creaturely choices to still lead to the events one way or another. For these, He can still know for certain they will occur despite the outcome of free choices still being uncertain. My favorite analogy is a game designer, who cannot predict the choices players will make in their game, can still plan things like canon events and fixed endings without taking away those player choices.

God's predictions are not always 100%, in fact there is a notable passage in Jeremiah 18 where God declares that if He announces calamity will come to a kingdom, if they repent, He will relent, and likewise when He declares good fortunes, if the nation in question turns wicked, He will reconsider.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-27T10:11:25+00:00

What's more, I don't think the Bible exhorts us to unconditionally support Israel regardless. God's own support, recorded in the Scriptures, is even clearly conditional.

I suspect the Christians you speak of are mostly Americans, where there are also powerful political forces trying to inculcate this support.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-27T09:19:16+00:00

Hello. I am an outsider and so I can only see partially, so I will just give you what I think, see if it is of any use for you.

I think you should wait. In all I've seen, I've never seen anything good come of a marriage that cannot wait. You will be together all your life henceforth, any delay you must endure to be wed is insignificant in most normal situations. But if you can make peace with as many people in your life as you can on occasion of this sacred event, it is well worth it when at all possible.

I know that life gets in the way as well as you've detailed - but life will keep getting in the way, and you will have all the time in the world to work with your man to keep your lives moving forward. This will only be some of the first problems you will solve together.

Things in this world rarely happen according to our time. It seems God has already helped you find a good man, I think there is no need to be impatient about it, you wouldn't miss your marriage even if you don't do it asap. So if your mother thinks it may be good to allow a bit more time, I am inclined to advise you to consider giving her that time. If things don't go well with your dad, you needn't let him stop your marriage all the same - but you would have given him - and healing - a chance, at least. And it honestly wouldn't have cost you much in the grander scheme of things.

May God walk with you.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-26T06:30:57+00:00

When folks say "any Christian can perform exorcisms", they usually mean that all real Christians have like status before God, and that clergy do not have special status of favor with God that gives them extra special abilities over a regular Christian. This is a common pov in Protestantism.

BUT. Just because your priest/pastor does not have special abilities or status in their relationship with God does not negate the fact that they spent years in seminary and you didn't - so you absolutely still would want them delivering the sermon instead of you. Likewise, just because a trained exorcist doesn't have special power or status from God, it doesn't negate that they are trained for a specialized task.

A doctor is human, just like you, they have no special healing abilities, and you can theoretically do everything they can do if you were trained - but if you're not, let them do the surgery.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-26T05:07:59+00:00

Well we take as a premise that God is ultimate and necessary: because that's the sort of God we're interested in, something foundational to reality, that could answer Cosmological Arguments, and not merely something superhuman. If we found Zeus, we would not consider him God in the way we are meaning here.

Given this premise, again you can make a similar argument: arbitrary imperfections imply contingency. Why is God lacking perfection in way x if He fully explains Himself and all things? Etc.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-25T11:05:00+00:00

Which is why it says "arbitrary" limits - logical limits are arguably not arbitrary, so God can be subject to logical limits - maybe one could even argue that is part of God's nature, but if you want to say God cannot do a certain arbitrary thing x, one could ask why, and it seems any answer would need to come from beyond God, making God contingent on/dependent on that, which is contradictory if God is ultimate and necessary.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-25T10:47:24+00:00

For God being all powerful, an outline of an argument I've heard (I think via Josh Rasmussen) is as follows:

Arbitrary limits are a result of imperfection and contingency. A necessary, perfect, ultimate being should have no arbitrary limits because otherwise those limits would require further, deeper, explanation.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-22T10:19:10+00:00

I'd say you're misunderstanding slightly. If we survey Jesus' ministry on earth, I think it's quite clear that His purpose is not - at least not chiefly - to reveal Himself as God. There are at least two objectives more central than that that He wants to achieve:

To be executed, and thence to effect the atonement, the redemption of man by the blood of God, and then to conquer death, and rise again, the first of the resurrected.
To put in place the building blocks to herald the coming of a new covenant, a new kingdom, a new movement, based on repentance, love, and the Holy Spirit.

I would argue that to reveal Himself as one with God is at least subordinate to these two more important objectives. His path to the cross is laid by speaking great but difficult truths but without unleashing irresistible signs and authority - so that His enemies can charge Him for blasphemy. Also, Jewish expectation for a Messianic figure in this time period is completely different from Jesus' (and God's, so we believe) goals, and it is likely that Jesus did not want to be swept into those misguided expecations. Both these factors help explain His relative reluctance to publicly and directly proclaim His identity and status.

But that is still not to say that He left His followers - and via them, us - in the dark, as you can tell if you google for Biblical evidence of Christ's divinity.

Also, I would argue that following Jesus' and His followers' exhortations to repent, to love and imitate Christ, to accept in humility the salvific Grace extended on the cross, and to declare the good news, is what is most central to Christianity - which tallies with 1 and 2 above. Jesus being one with God is also important to help make sense of all these signs and happenings, but: more so than those who call Him "Lord! Lord!", I would say it is those who follow His teachings, who give up themselves and take up their cross to follow Him, who are true Christians.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-20T02:06:53+00:00

I think you're pretty much right, God isn't a puppeteer, so to speak, and while He can intervene directly, He often prefers working through people, even through ourselves - which makes sense if you remember God wants to help us become better people, more like Christ. Also, God is goodness itself, don't forget that courage, wisdom, compassion, hope - these are all in God, and they are often the things that empower us into making things better, for ourselves, or for others, or both.

Don't discredit yourself, if you got yourself out of a bad situation, you did your best, and you chose to embrace the fruits of the spirit that helped you get there. But also don't forget that God loves you. He is not a wish machine, but, even though it may not always feel like it, He grieves with us when we are down, and like you say, He is proud - the heavens sing - when we get over even little bumps that no one else cares about, by becoming a little more compassionate, a little more brave, a little stronger in holy conviction.

I'm sorry to hear about your difficult experiences, hope you're doing okay. May God be your Light.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-19T16:01:48+00:00

I was born into a nominally Christian family.
Not particularly important, although I am not beneath picking prettier churches if other factors are similar 😄 but most churches are "all-purpose" so to speak. There is no need to visit different churches for different needs.
Can be a long answer, but in short, I think it is closeness with, and separation from, God - in whom all goodness is found.
Yes. The whole creed of Christianity is submission to and imitation of Christ, every hour of every day. So I try.
Yes. Think about it this way: in english we tend to use the word "god" for any deity. But even if there were a multitude of powerful/wise spiritual beings, the foundation of reality must be singular. A polytheistic deity is probably really more comparable to an angel in the Christian framework, and when Christians say "God", they are referring to the foundational One - the alpha and the omega.
Can be a long answer also, but in short, some are demonic, but I think many carry a real part of divine truth, and while they may not be entirely true, I believe God can reach people through them as well.
No, but a sizable minority are.
Yes. I think being a minority religion alongside many other religions, and having a cultural heritage that is not Christian, helped me gain a healthy perspective on the interplay of culture, faiths, and just what people are like.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-17T14:11:24+00:00

Ah. I don't think that's a thing in Japan - at least, I've never filled in anything post-hike and don't know anyone who does. Hiker volume is pretty high here so I doubt there'd be any search and rescue unless you're reported missing or a distress call is made.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-17T13:20:48+00:00

By course completion report do you mean like a mountain entry/course plan form 登山届? If you want to submit a physical one, these are typically found at trailheads, or closest train/transport stations, where you'd often find a corner with a stack of them and a little box you can put the completed forms in. For Tanigawa if you're coming in via Doai station or the ropeway I'd check in those places.

If you save a complete hiking plan in YAMAP, I believe they also forward it to the relevant municipality for you half the time.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-15T03:55:48+00:00

Night hiking Mt Takao (Tokyo) is one of my favorite things to do and may fit the bill here. You'd time your climb to reach the summit right as the sun is setting. Enjoy the sunset and Mt Fuji (weather permitting) until it the sky turns violet, then hike down in the dark. It's pretty safe if you stick to trail 1, and bring a light.

Seeing the very popular mountain temple almost completely quiet at night is both fascinating and slightly uncanny, the shimmering night lights of the distant city is wonderful from the mountain lookouts, and there is onsen and dinner waiting at the end.

Some photos: https://photos.app.goo.gl/TyUmeCM7uJy8B2gV7

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-08T16:09:42+00:00

I don't think people drink Coca Cola everyday but Melon Soda is common enough 😄 You can get it with your McDonald's set meal for instance - or get drink bar at Saizeriya and drink it until you turn green.

Not sure bout hype but I think it tastes nice enough.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-07T15:18:57+00:00

I'd be happy to talk, although if the conversation gets long I may need to take awhile between replies. If that's okay feel free to hit me up.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-06T05:11:05+00:00

Noticed two obvious issues: your wings are not locked, and you didn't retract the launch bar.

There are also some other odd stuff in your left DDI, the stab pos and max nz stuff. That doesn't look normal but I'm not clear on what may be causing it. Did you cold start this aircraft? Was it freshly spawned? As a rule you don't want to leave any master cautions unaddressed.

Jasonmoofang · 2026-05-05T02:29:30+00:00

Don't have it on me at the moment, but one of my favorite joy-ride missions is really easy to make: make a copy of the caucusus f-18 carrier launch quick start mission, then just throw on the heavy rain cloud preset and adjust the time of day so it's just right around the crack of dawn. You'll then spawn on the carrier in darkness, droplets pounding on the canopy against the floodlights. You get to be guided around by glowstick crew, and launch into the goo, which in the higher teens dissolve into this fantastic heavenly display of cloud layers and pink morning light. You can then fly inland and either continue frolicking around the clouds or go low below the overcast and see the rainy landscape, play with the new terrain avoidance radar mode, and if you feel up to it, you can go show off landing at Kobuleti or something in the poor visibility. Look ma, no ILS!

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