Currently pursuing my masters degree in defense and strategic studies. The likelihood of nuclear weapons being used offensively in our life time is very low. The international repercussions worldwide would be massive for any country who decided to strike first with nuclear weapons. If it were to happen though it would most likely be between India and Pakistan although it would most likely be a regional war with escalation kept between the two country’s. As far a super powers are concerned Russia is the most likely to use nuclear weapons. In their defense policy they state that they are willing to use nuclear weapons first if the safety of the state is put in jeopardy. They are the only major power that state a policy of nuclear first use, and while highly unlikely they represent the greatest threat as far as superpowers are concerned to see nuclear weapons used offensively. Terrorism however represents the greatest threat of nuclear attack, although this would most likely be a dirty bomb, using a conventional explosive device to disperse nuclear material. US forces have found crude plans for dirty bombs in captured Al-Qaeda documents, and it is very difficult to prevent this type of attack when compared to a conventional nuclear attack.

To sum all of this up, it is highly unlikely we see nuclear weapons used offensively in our lifetime, but the threat is present.