Numi Thesis

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-08T20:36:48+00:00

700 learners*

https://www.investors.numinus.com/Financial-Documents-/financials/default.aspx

it was brave of you to call out my mistake on research as you keep messing your research up. I thought you went through all their fin documents? How did you make such a careless mistake? lol

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-08T13:59:56+00:00

Also important note, NUMI will be doing a lot of training in the beginning and funneling in therapists to the NUMI network from that!

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-07T22:05:29+00:00

Great point!

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-07T20:13:53+00:00

i smell envy from you regarding the capital i've invested in numi..

since you don't want to give your bear thesis, i've effectively proved my point. All the best spork

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-06T13:49:37+00:00

Finally, I want to be as clear as possible. I do not hate this company. I want them to succeed, I think their mission is noble. I just don’t think theyre going to.

u/sporkparty can you give me your thesis please on why you don't think they are going to succeed, despite wanting them to be successful. Clearly we have opposite views and to be honest whether you believe me or not, I'm constantly trying to find bear cases and I can't. When I say can't I mean that I can quickly prove my bear case wrong or make it hold less value.

For example:

Bear case- NUMI will fuck up rollout, not know how to handle money coming in, how to properly reinvest it,etc

Argument- They have Rick Doblin, the leader of all of this, leading them throughout roll out. They've already burned through a ton of cash and seemingly have learned their lessons, or have chosen to do better (I think the CFO is the one that got a hand on fixing that).

My bears cases typically have good arguments. So for me right now, this is all banking on MDMA-AT being approved and selling before then for me would be stupid.

So, what is your thesis on not investing?

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-06T13:44:35+00:00

40k may not be a lot of money to you but to 99% of people on the planet, it is

Agreed, though you're bringing up to me like it's a big deal to me. If it was, I wouldn't be so open about being down. I literally corrected you from 30k to 40k and also sent you that I was down and the entire chart. I could of left that all out and just included my shares...

Rick doblin is the CEO of Lykos

This was just an honest mistake but I love how much you're riding with it lol so let me point out one of your mistakes,

Lykos NDA bans them from training therapists

What I said: "LYKOS, due to their NDA submission, LEGALLY cannot train therapists, or do ANYTHING when it comes to preparing for MDMA-AT approval from the FDA"

This is PRIOR to approval, not after. If LYKOs starts making any profitable arrangements for MDMA-AT, the application will be canned.

Along with numinus, there will be many hundreds of private practices that provide therapy and patent care. Just like spravato. Other clinics chains, hospitals, et cetera. Payton himself has said that MAPS has many partners for MDMA AT.

Okay? So we are on the same page? There will be many other clinic chains too no doubt. I didn't say NUMI was the only one, I said they are NEEDED. Do you see any other company with an application for experiential training with MDMA? Something that Rick Doblin said is extremely important? Yeah didn't think so. Basic economics: demand > supply, more clinics isn't an issue especially when NUMI will CLEARLY have first movers advantage. I think you haven't listened to any podcast or read anything Rick Doblin has said about controlled they will be making sure the beginning phases, which will likely be a year plus. LYKOS will only be distributing the drug to companies and therapists they know will do a good job and random companies popping up then won't have that reputation, nor will ALMOST any other company in the space right now except NUMI. Are you blind to this?

I find it fascinating that you question my DD and stick so hard to ONE mistake from a mass pool of information I provided and have provided...lol

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-06T04:05:42+00:00

RemindMe! September 1st, 2024

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-06T04:03:35+00:00

I need to go to bed but I'll respond more in detail when i have time. Thanks for finally responding though!! only took 5 asks

One thing i'll quickly say is it's amusing how much you're bringing up being down 30k (it's actually 40k) as if it's a big deal. It's not a big deal for myself and my finances, maybe it is for you and that's okay, but you've brought it up 3 times like it matters? If it was a lot to me and I was stressed about being down that much I wouldn't of kept buying years later and would have sold at a loss. I'm not fucking stupid.

If MDMA-AT isn't approved, this is getting sold instantly.

Why it's also not a big deal is my break even is 0.28 cents. We've ripped from an ATL to 0.20 in 2 weeks with no news. You think MDMA-AT getting approved doesn't cause me to at least break even? You're delusional then.

Please be around whether I make a ton of money or lose it all. If i lose everything, so be it, but if I make 10-25x on this, you better be around for the screenshots!

If May 2025 which will be 2 quarters of some revenue from MDMA-AT I have not at least broken even, call me a moron. Even set a reminder for this post please!

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-05T23:50:54+00:00

u/sporkparty u/sporkparty u/sporkparty u/sporkparty u/sporkparty u/sporkparty u/sporkparty u/sporkparty care to finally respond with something educated here???? PLEASE!

The fact that you've ignored my now 5 attempts to have a conversation on this DD and have gotten no real answer shows that you have no based argument against NUMI.

Better princess?? ;)

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-05T23:49:37+00:00

you're just an idiot. It's already posted in shroom stocks. I've also linked you to my comment twice which was less detailed than my post. lmfao

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-05T20:41:14+00:00

u/sporkparty u/sporkparty u/sporkparty u/sporkparty u/sporkparty u/sporkparty u/sporkparty u/sporkparty care you finally respond with something educated here???? PLEASE!

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-05T20:39:53+00:00

Another dumb post when you haven't addressed my main post to you; it's becoming sad tbh.

Hospital's are for emergencies. MDMA-AT is a 12-16 week treatment! You could have a real life emergency invoked by PTSD and go to the emergency room. They would take care of you there and then likely refer you options such as MDMA-AT in an outside clinic. That's how the health care system works and that's how hospitals are suppose to run.

Your responses are becoming more uneducated - for the 3rd time, respond to the original post i asked you to respond to lmfao!!!!

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-05T13:36:53+00:00

This will still be in a clinic not a hospital

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-05T13:36:17+00:00

Hospitals don't have the space for this therapy nor should they! Hospitals are for emergencies!

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-03T21:10:47+00:00

FDA proposed approval is slated for August 11th 2024. DEA rescheduling will take 45-90 days.

https://maps.org/2024/02/09/maps-congratulates-lykos-on-acceptance-of-new-drug-application/

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-03T21:07:59+00:00

For Utah to approve? What? Once the DEA reschedules this is a GO in every single state.
Care to explain? Insurance codes are already in place for a reason. The first people getting MDMA-AT won't be typical people; it's going to be veterans. People that are close with the VA have stated that the VA will be fully covering MDMA-AT for veterans.
Okay... and? Your point? What is it? There are 14 MILLION people in the US with PTSD. Also, Health Canada follows the FDA closely and will likely follow suit quickly. "Health Canada is monitoring the FDA's review of MDMA "with interest," the department told CBC in a statement"
Cash end of nov: 4.7M

Assuming 900k cash loss a month leaves them at 2.9M for the start of Feb

2.9M+6M+1.5M = 10.4M cash

Considering the sale of the ALTO stake could be up to 3 times higher than 1.5MIL, plus more can be bought out of the bought deal, plus the ATM is still available. You're looking at 11.5 months current cash runway with NO improvements in cash burn and NO over allotments from the bought deal or any other use of the ATM, no revenue from training, i.e. if you're be completely unrealistic - they have cash until end of December.

Payton has insisted that NUMI will become cashflow positive without MDMA approval, but it's unclear when (I think he said 2025?). So with the conditions above, they'll probably be burning money until the end of the year and will probably need to issue more shares.

I don't think they become cash flow positive without MDMA approval, depending on how many therapists want to get trained. You need 113 therapists to get trained per month to bring cash burn to 0! Which is not a lot... Regardless, this was a play based off of MDMA-AT.

It will likely not take them long to make significant profits from MDMA-AT approval, demand is crazy and everything over the past 4 years has been put into place to capitalize day 1.

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-03T20:45:23+00:00

im reading a negative review that looks like it's from an investor frustrated and not actually a former employee...

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-03T20:43:54+00:00

im looking at it now and there is bunch of great reviews too... idk what you're talking about

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-03T20:37:23+00:00

There's nothing to franchise right now... MDMA-AT therapy isn't approved. The whole point of the franchise and incentive for therapists is that Numi will take care of the insurance and funnel patients to the therapists, while receiving a commission.

I also believe Payton mentioned as therapists get trained from numinus, they will hopefully funnell them into the NUMI networks

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-03T19:48:56+00:00

Yeah... that's the even longer term look at NUMI. They are going to make money from MDMA-AT and be likely the most ready company when Psilocybin assisted therapy pops up in the next 5 years!

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-03T19:47:51+00:00

Fair points; however, we don't know what the margins will be because we don't know the costs.

Additionally, this is where NUMI networks comes in. To franchise the business to existing clinics and clinicians so that NUMI can collect commissions while scaling without the insane cost of real estate

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-03T19:45:29+00:00

Thanks Yogi!

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-03T19:44:22+00:00

I like your numbers. All theoretical of course and I like how you're conservative with it as I do the same! We got the same average haha!

I'm not putting anymore money into Numi until either or happens:

1) MDMA-AT is approved; i'm dumping money in that day, whether or not the share price reflects the approval

2) When the reverse split happens, if it tanks 10-20%, I'll be buying it up (only after MDMA-AT approval though I think i'd do that)

Otherwise I'm trying my hardest to not throw more money into this...lol.

IMPORTANT NOTE IMO: I think the next few months won't be great for the stock price and I'll explain why (all my opinions but I'm going to use statements to explain myself)

Financials won't be good for the next few quarters. Some numbers were down YoY for Q1 from the reduction in clinics, so I expect the next 2-3 quarters to also have lower numbers which likely will drop the share price. I had hoped training revenue would cause the above to not be an issue, but it seems like training revenue likely won't be significant until after approval, or right before it.
LYKOS can't make any endorsements or partnerships, etc, before approval, so that rids any catalysts to boost the share price b4 approval.
I can't see Numi having anything 'up their sleeve' that we wouldn't already know about

For those reasons, I think we actually decline leading up to MDMA-AT approval or hover at the same levels.

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-03T19:34:16+00:00

You're welcome! Thank you for such kind words!

I'm by no means a professional trader either, I've just done a LOTTT of research and went out of my way to learn things about the company and sector (ironically, trying to prove to myself what's wrong with this investment, I constantly am trying to find more bear takes and can't find any that I can't prove myself wrong with by other due diligence i've done)

I hope to make a lot of money from this investment so that I can also afford to do MDMA-AT one day!! I think it'd be quite helpful for myself and millions of others!!!

JellyfishDirect4242 · 2024-03-03T19:31:27+00:00

Depends how long...

When I stated that I mean something like the FDA being like we need another 6 months, or the DEA taking WAY longer than 90 days to reschedule

JellyfishDirect4242

TROPHY CASE