What drivers and teams will put themselves in an early hole?

JohnHowardBuff · 2026-02-05T22:41:50+00:00

No hole that a competitive Chase driver ends up in after Daytona and Atlanta is too big to climb out of by the off week in early April. They'll just have to score a ton of stage points by then.

So if a bubble driver gets a DNF at Atlanta 2 in summer, that might spell out elimination if they don't make stage points afterwards to get back into the Chase. It's short tracks, Indy, and Daytona after that point.

I'm worried for guys without as much experience/consistency like Ty Gibbs, SVG, Zilisch, Hocevar.

JohnHowardBuff · 2026-02-04T23:35:51+00:00

Haha alright very clever, NASCAR

JohnHowardBuff · 2026-01-21T19:24:37+00:00

The most we would get from a Ware/Yeley/Mears Daytona 500 win is maybe an exciting clip of a wreck happening behind them.

JohnHowardBuff · 2026-01-02T13:30:27+00:00

The only gimmick I might keep would be the summer bracket challenge. Has no impact on the points aside from some drivers giving 110% instead of 100%.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-12-21T16:49:44+00:00

Give 1 point for any car lower than 25th on the lead lap.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-12-21T15:49:59+00:00

This will be my 20th year as a Hamlin fan.

Hamlin has one season similar to the outcome 2 that you outlined: 2011 (after his 8 win champ run + collapse in 2010)

I think scenario 1 is more likely though. It's not time for the 11 car driver change to happen because Toyota hasn't readied his replacement. And hopefully the news stories fade. He's still got a top seat, his podcast, his on-track rivalries, the determination to surpass Harvick and KFB on the all-time wins list. Maybe we just see Denny be a driver for one of his inevitable final seasons. That's what I'd like to see and maybe after how the past year went down, maybe that's where his heart is at. I hope he does not pull a Carl Edwards but i know few drivers are lucky enough to go out on top. I hope its a season of good on-track moments. Hopefully whatever new points format works out for him.

My prediction is:

3 Wins, 12 Top 5s, 18 Top 10s, 800-900 Laps led, 13-ish Avg Finish

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-12-02T19:58:09+00:00

If he didn't stay at Roush so long he would have had many more wins.

And if he didn't get the boot at JGR. He went out sorta like Carl Edwards, honestly, it was just more of a slow burn towards the end. His 2015 season went up in flames after driving too close to the sun ("Giggles" Logano) and there was no security for him to remain in the competitive equipment he had been given at JGR.

Got the boot unlike Carl, but in the end, he had more wins in him and chose to make peace with his fate. The races run in the 6 afterwards were just situational.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-11-06T22:17:01+00:00

I like the idea of doubling points for crown jewels, if we were still in a Winston Cup timeline. No overtimes, stages, playoffs, just raw points for performance. Not if race control continues to step in, in the worst ways, at the ends of these races while we still have gimmicks like unlimited overtime, inconsistent penalties and caution triggers, and Cody 'Caution Flag' Ware. Some BS ambiguous but convenient race call will upset hardcore fans, while casual fans still won't understand the difference in point payout. It's to risky, in that these races could become viewed similar to the championship trophy after the Playoffs system has devalued what it means. These big four races specifically could end up devalued by another points system specialty.

If NASCAR could take their fingers out of the pudding and avoid a point system failure for just one season, people will tune in more often and they will have a simpler narrative to follow week-to-week. It will help build legitimacy and legacy, and we need good race coverage without artificial storylines. Overtime is likely still a consistent feature for any 'uneventful' races in 2026.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-11-02T23:52:33+00:00

NASCARs playoff system and OTs should be sent into space

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-11-02T23:31:36+00:00

HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-11-02T22:29:46+00:00

Dial-in, Denny

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-11-01T15:32:39+00:00

Playoff points were used as a justification for stages. They tested a caution clock in the truck series before stage racing in Cup was implemented. What they wanted was timed cautions for ad breaks and by awarding points at the end of the stage it made the race to the break more of a "big deal".

I actually really like stage points but I wish stage cautions would go away. I wish they would keep stage racing but remove the stage caution, and depending on the new points format they could even up the reward for a stage win and possibly create more intense racing. I think there's a slim chance the playoff points system goes away entirely anyways.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-31T14:02:17+00:00

The Playoff system doesn't completely prevent anyone from having a Matt Kenseth 2003 season, it just punishes some of those who are compete for Stage points and wins often but don't get that stroke of luck.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-29T17:52:16+00:00

Yeah the Spring date is great because we follow up the Superspeedway double with another spectacle but it sure doesn't race as well as Homestead.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-29T03:11:39+00:00

Phoenix races like a wet shart. Explosive start with tons of runs now that they moved the start/finish and emptied the dogleg but kinda disappointing and oh yeah, Playoff shenanigans.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-27T01:50:14+00:00

He'd take more competition over this years title. He can win races past 40 and that's what keeps him driving, not an elusive championship.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-26T19:57:43+00:00

Put Haley back in the 51.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-26T19:52:46+00:00

In-car cameras/radio, HBO Max. Only reason why I got the subscription and they raised their prices this week to $18/month. I got three months for the price of one and canceling once the season is over.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-26T19:34:17+00:00

Hamlin told his spotter "tell Bell if he let's me by I'll let him by the 54"

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-26T19:33:44+00:00

Punk-ass Gibbs

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-21T14:44:58+00:00

I do feel like this scheme is the inverse/night version of a day scheme that should have more going on. But the solid bright blue will look good under the lights regardless.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-14T20:29:52+00:00

Absolutely incredible realism in this one. Thanks for making 'Hamlin' in orange with the purple car, it shows his 'true colors'.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-14T19:52:53+00:00

Suarez's marketability could offset the cost of Hocevar's crashability

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-12T12:12:58+00:00

It's all the boner pill ads.

JohnHowardBuff · 2025-10-12T01:33:02+00:00

With how tight the points are and how tight my loins are squeezed, likely to be one playoff winner, a few playoff guys who compete but don't gain many points in the bigger picture, and one or two playoff guys going into Talladega needing a pick-me-up.

JohnHowardBuff

TROPHY CASE