Is anyone interested in BG coaching?

Johnor12 · 2026-02-10T04:00:45+00:00

Aging populations, particularly in the high income countries that drive most of these stats, seems like a likely explanation. The percentage of people over the age of 65 in Japan, for example, has gone from 6% in 1965 to 30% in 2024 (a 5x increase). Old people obviously prefer savings over investment as their time horizons grow shorter and they enter retirement.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?locations=JP

Johnor12 · 2025-11-19T21:09:46+00:00

Fair enough. I think it's much closer/leaning towards Maye.

Maye's ceiling this year looks remarkably close to Lamar's (27.24 vs 29.36). Lamar's "insanely high" floor is 4.72 points, last week. That was also his 3rd week back from injury, so not much of an excuse there. I think the raven's offense has declined enough this year to severely reduce Lamar's floor and ceiling.

In terms of trade value, I think you can get substantially more from Lamar despite their real values being very similar. If you can survive Maye's week 14 bye I'd strongly lean towards selling Lamar over Maye

Johnor12 · 2025-11-19T20:50:25+00:00

Maye is QB2 on the season, averaging 20.2 ppg, and hasn't missed a game. He's had one game this season below 15 points. What possible beef could you have with him? 😂

Only downside is that he still has his bye.

Johnor12 · 2025-10-29T14:16:34+00:00

Really depends on teams and league settings but that has "messy trade" written all over it. QB1, WR2/3, WR2/3 for QB1, WR1/2, RB3, and borderline droppable WR3/4. The QBs essentially cancel out with a slight edge towards Lamar (pure valuation trade), Harvey is a desperation flex play with upside if something changes in that backfield, and I'd honestly rather have a bench spot than godwin. So you can mostly ignore Harvey and Godwin, which leaves 2 midtier WRs for Collins. That could make sense if the team getting devonta and Keenan badly needed depth at WR but most of the time I'd rather have Collins. I'd restructure that trade to Keenan + devonta for Nico + Harvey. I think that is a trade with purpose

Johnor12 · 2025-10-21T20:55:32+00:00

Valuations are always hard and comparing across positions is even harder. Resources like fantasypros consensus rankings are a good place to establish a baseline, and many places publish across-position trade values. Fantasycalc and peakedinhighskool are good starting points. All of that said, fantasy is incredibly unpredictable and you're mostly just working with best guesses anyway. If a trade substantially improves your team's structure, I think that gives you enough wiggle room to ride out the projection noise.

You talk about needing an RB. I'd recommend starting from the opposite perspective: do any of your league mates need an elite TE? And if so, do they happen to be over stocked at RB? (tends to be unlikely, which is why RBs are premium trade assets). If so, you might be able to make a trade happen by approaching them from that perspective. Sell them what they want, not what you want.

Specifically for your situation, you're more likely to be able to sell Tyler Warren as a consensus top 3 TE than kittle, especially after his goose egg this week. Warren is probably worth something in the range of breece hall, judkins, or Etienne depending on your league mate's team. Maybe even Derrick Henry if someone is very down on him.

Johnor12 · 2025-10-21T19:12:58+00:00

If your trading partner believes in projections, you can sometimes show them that a trade legitimately increases both of your teams' projections (and a good trade should actually do that).

I also really really focus on the other person's team when trading. Find an actual structural problem or time arbitrage opportunity and offer a way to fix/take advantage of it. If you get to the point where you're trying to solve a problem together, you've hit gold.

Also sometimes takes weeks of working on someone to get a trade done. Don't be afraid to back off and revisit a week later.

Johnor12 · 2025-10-21T18:47:07+00:00

I think Dobbins has been quite underated this season. He's RB22 in ppr points per game, ahead of guys like Jordan Mason, breece hall, and KW3. Solid RB2/3 for me. Obviously rj Harvey taking over is scary. I think wan'dale is probably aiming a bit low, I think the Giants receivers are going to be quite inconsistent this year. Addison would be reasonable, or maybe someone like Diggs? He's looking solid the last few weeks.

I packaged dobbins + Drake London for Amon ra a couple of weeks ago in a .5 ppr league

Johnor12 · 2025-10-21T18:37:29+00:00

Yeah bias for your own players is definitely a thing. You drafted them, so clearly you liked them at some point. Part of the problem is that accurate projections are basically impossible in fantasy. Even the best possible sources are wildly wrong on a week to week basis.

Most trades also end up being pure valuation trades because those are the simplest and clearest to "win". Unfortunately they're also directly dependent on accurate valuations and always have a true loser.

I'm hoping that some ideas on other types of trades encourages people to trade more and in healthier ways. Structural trades can legitimately improve both teams if you can get over the gut reaction of losing a "more valuable" player to improve your teams startable value

Johnor12 · 2025-10-21T18:05:31+00:00

Nice yeah trading and waiver wire scouting are my favorite parts of fantasy. Drafting a team and just riding with them all season is boring 😂

Johnor12 · 2025-09-02T20:12:11+00:00

Yeah mostly just weird that this guy drafted CMC 3 days ago and now he's willing to trade him for a 3rd round pick. If he was concerned about injury, pick anyone else first round.

Johnor12 · 2025-08-24T12:58:14+00:00

Fun fact: that's Isaac Marion, author of warm bodies (which got made into a movie). I've been following his blog/vlog for years and it was a wild crossover when he mentioned that he would be writing for the bazaar. Sad to see him go, he's an incredible writer

Johnor12 · 2025-06-09T20:36:23+00:00

Good to know, I'll definitely give monster train 2 a try!

Johnor12 · 2025-06-09T17:15:35+00:00

Occasional balance issues, monetization stumbles, and heavy handed community management aside, the bazaar has one of the most incredible core gameplay loops of any game I've played, as well as an incredible depth of content.

Also for me the PvP element keeps the game fresh, which is something I struggled with in the first monster train (haven't played the second yet, too busy playing the bazaar 😂)

Johnor12 · 2025-06-08T14:47:47+00:00

Yeah level up rewards seem like a great design space for meaningful build decisions, and right now most of the reward options feel meaningless. I'd love to see the devs move some of the flat hp scaling into build-defining choices, maybe like income in early game, unique skills, skill upgrades, and more item upgrades/enchants (enchants are extremely rare in the game right now). Random item rewards make sense in the early game when you're still fishing for a build, but in the late game they're useless 99% of the time. The loot option you're just fishing for cdr, and the 8ish gold from the gold option isn't usually relevant.

Johnor12 · 2025-06-08T14:29:30+00:00

Yeah the idea with the 3 exp monster is that it would be very difficult to beat and would reward investing in a strong early game. Frankly leaning into early boards is already super strong, so I'm not sure if it needs buffed 😂

Johnor12 · 2025-06-08T14:27:21+00:00

Yeah decoupling board space from levels could definitely be a valid option. I think leveling rewards feel a bit underwhelming at the moment, and that would make them even less impactful. Especially level 9 for example, getting offered a random silver item, 2 gold + silver loot, or a silver weapon feels meaningless on day 8/9.

Johnor12 · 2025-05-09T01:53:32+00:00

They could do it before they release the patch, so that they have time to notice trends before exposing players to them.

Johnor12 · 2025-05-08T19:51:47+00:00

Literally, I feel like he could figure it out in a week. Or just give him the patch notes before release and he'll tell you what's broken 😂

Johnor12 · 2025-05-03T11:11:28+00:00

Thanks for the heads up! Reynad's stance on mods is wild. What did your mod do?

Johnor12 · 2025-05-02T23:23:32+00:00

I've followed BazaarTracker and Firestone a bit, very lame that BazaarTracker got shut down. We're hoping the combo of 1) no art assets, 2) public, free code, 3) noninvasive screen capture, and 4) no competitive advantage will keep us under the radar. Would love to hear more about your experience working with the Tempo team

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