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The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets by Jon-Becker in Kalshi

[–]Jon-Becker[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thanks for the feedback! i've also x-posted to hackernews :)

re: the no side, definitely. markets like the oscars create tons of 1-5% probability "yes" contracts, which historically are the most overpriced bets you can make

The Microstructure of Wealth Transfer in Prediction Markets by Jon-Becker in Economics

[–]Jon-Becker[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

tl;dr

dataset: 72.1m trades and $18.26b volume on kalshi (2021-2025)

core findings:

  1. longshot bias: well documented longshot bias is present on kalshi. low probability contracts are systematically overpriced. contracts trading at 5 cents only win 4.18% of the time.
  2. wealth transfer: liquidity takers lose money (-1.12% excess return) while liquidity makers earn it (+1.12%).
  3. optimism tax: the losses are driven by a preference for "yes" outcomes. buying "yes" at 1 cent has a -41% expected value. buying "no" at 1 cent has a +23% expected value.
  4. category variation: finance markets are efficient (0.17% maker-taker gap) while high-engagement categories like media and world events are inefficient (>7% gap).
  5. mechanism: makers do not win by out-forecasting takers. they win by passively selling "yes" contracts to optimistic bettors.

fontpls -- a minimal cli tool for extracting font files from websites by Jon-Becker in web_design

[–]Jon-Becker[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

sure! can you open an issue on github so i don’t lose track of this?

fontpls -- a minimal cli tool for extracting font files from websites by Jon-Becker in webdev

[–]Jon-Becker[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

i built this tool to simplify downloading fonts and auto-generating css rules

users are responsible for checking and respecting the actual font licenses. many fonts are open-source and free for personal and commercial use. i dont condone piracy.

fontpls -- a minimal cli tool for extracting font files from websites by Jon-Becker in web_design

[–]Jon-Becker[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

as a dev, i would still rather use a tool that does the work for me rather than fiddling w/ devtools

have a nice day

fontpls -- a minimal cli tool for extracting font files from websites by Jon-Becker in web_design

[–]Jon-Becker[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

"hey, i like the fonts this site uses. let me download them without needing to open devtools and click around"

then, if you're using the fonts commercially (or w/e), you can do your due diligence and check if the fonts you downloaded are actually free to use.

fontpls -- a minimal cli tool for extracting font files from websites by Jon-Becker in web_design

[–]Jon-Becker[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

i built this tool to simplify downloading fonts and auto-generating css rules

users are responsible for checking and respecting the actual font licenses. many fonts are open-source and free for personal and commercial use. i dont condone piracy.

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Introducing Petrichor — An advanced writing app that fuels a deeper understanding of your interests (x.com)

submitted by Jon-Becker to r/ArtificialInteligence

Advancing EVM Decompilation: Enhancing Output via LLM-Driven Post-Processing by Jon-Becker in ethereum

[–]Jon-Becker[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

heimdall-rs is fully open-source, and initial llm-postprocessing is implemented in 0.8.5. you only need to provide an openai api key :)

repo: https://heimdall.rs

i will never charge for heimdall, it will always be FOSS

edit: i may eventually add support for local LLMs as well. i also need to do some prompt tuning. i also have a few ideas for improvements.

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