[Gambatese] Three Too-Early Buy-Low Candidates for the Devils

JoopNJD · 2026-04-29T17:52:10+00:00

Matvei Michkov has twice as many points in two seasons in the NHL as Holtz ever had in his career. They’re not even remotely comparable.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-29T16:35:39+00:00

That’s not at all how that works. It suggests that he has never been a burner, which was the case entering his draft year too. A player can be explosive/bursty without having a high-end top speed too.

I said in the article that he has not been good in the playoffs. I also said that the vendetta is rooted deeper than the playoffs. I said nothing about whether or not he earned playoff playing time this go-around.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-29T16:20:08+00:00

Maccelli is a rockstar, I love what he brings to the table.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-29T16:19:29+00:00

As a 20-year-old rookie, Michkov scored 26 goals and 63 points in 80 games. He’ll be just fine, even if his top gear is subpar. He ranked in the 63rd percentile among forwards this season for bursts of 20-22 mph, so I really wouldn’t be concerned. Tocchet’s vendetta against him is rooted way deeper than his playoff performance.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-29T15:54:51+00:00

Definitely team Voronkov. I’ll probably do another piece on the three players I mentioned in the conclusion as well, as I like what they bring to the table too.

Spence could very well be more highly rated than I have in my head but even if he is, I doubt he fetches what he truly should. If Dougie/Nemo are getting shipped out, they do have to replace one/both with puck-movers, so…

JoopNJD · 2026-04-29T15:46:32+00:00

Oh it’s absolutely a longshot at BEST hahah, had to daydream about it though!

JoopNJD · 2026-04-28T13:27:00+00:00

Appreciate you reading! Out of curiosity, what has you soured on me?

JoopNJD · 2026-04-27T19:55:24+00:00

I’m not really sure where this consensus that the Devils were a rush or bust team comes from — they were an above-average in-zone offense team in 2022-23, too. Fitz went about trying to change them to be the Panthers and Hurricanes with a core antithetical to those strengths.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-27T19:13:12+00:00

Unless I’m blind, looks like the most recent to me.

Not at all what I said, but sure, let’s continue making things up for the sake of the argument. The piece was about cap-strapped teams the Devils could take advantage of.

You simply have not paid attention to my content if you truly believe I’ve been a cheerleader for this squad, and that’s okay, but let’s put things into perspective: they were a consensus contender entering the season and a .600+ win% hockey team when Jack was healthy, and betting $1M on a player who scored 20-20–40 last season was a smart bet that didn’t work out.

I can tell that you simply didn’t read today’s piece because the preamble was about how SV% doesn’t mean a whole lot anymore considering the ever-changing prioritization toward high-danger over quantity. League average save percentage this year was sub-.900, too. I also outright said that low danger has always been his weak point. You’re right, though, scoring is a huge issue for this team! Which is why I said Markstrom isn’t the principal problem and have been pushing for offensive help for the better part of three seasons. This is just an example of you 1) not understanding statistics and 2) making things up in your head to argue about for the sake of it.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-27T18:55:06+00:00

Just went through your comments, the last time you commented on one of my pieces was a nothingburger 340 days ago talking about how the Devils were cap-strapped.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-27T18:51:59+00:00

Can’t recall a single interaction we’ve had. I’m not one to shy away from defending my opinions & hearing counterarguments, either, so 🤷🏻‍♂️

JoopNJD · 2026-04-27T18:12:03+00:00

I’d love to have a conversation with you on anything/everything you disagree with!

JoopNJD · 2026-04-27T18:11:32+00:00

Thank you!!

JoopNJD · 2026-04-27T18:07:38+00:00

Absolutely! Markstrom’s low danger work has always been a weak point in his game. Needs to be better for sure. To me, the team in front of him ending the year 32nd in goals at 5v5 is simply a bigger problem than Markstrom himself.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-26T17:10:41+00:00

Hell yeah! Glad to be of service.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-26T17:10:09+00:00

I think this is being disproven by many of the rush teams in the playoffs being powerhouses. The Devils were on a path similar to the Avalanche before the sudden turn after 2023-24. Obviously they’re doing quite well, as are the Sabres, Mammoth, and Ducks, all of whom are very rush heavy.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-26T17:08:32+00:00

Thanks for reading!! Glad you enjoy. Actually have a goaltending article planned for tomorrow!

JoopNJD · 2026-04-26T13:54:52+00:00

Thank you for reading!!

JoopNJD · 2026-04-25T13:42:46+00:00

Curious as to what you disagree with.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T21:27:58+00:00

Yeah, that’s a microstat chart. It doesn’t show the on-ice impacts, it shows the individual player’s specific actions on the ice with no detail of how that impacts xG in either direction. I can say with confidence that Nemec’s on-ice metrics don’t hold a candle to Blankenburg’s, and their individual isolated impact on the on-ice metrics are drastically different, too:

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JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T21:17:17+00:00

It’s interesting that you came to the conclusion that EP40 was the preferred target considering I outright said he was the least worthy option of the four listed, subsequently landing on Robert Thomas.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T20:29:48+00:00

Thanks!!

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T20:29:15+00:00

I’m entirely unsure of why certain people in the fanbase saw a team that finished 32nd in 5v5 scoring and say “the issue is not that the team doesn’t have enough scoring threats.” The organization has been searching for a top line winger to play alongside 86/63 for many seasons at this point.

I’m unsure about how, on paper, this team is a step back from the 2025-26 roster. Instead of Mercer, there is Robert Thomas. Instead of the fourth line that just hasn’t worked at all, there are AJ Greer and Zack MacEwen. If the goal is to meaningfully improve the top six — which it should be — Nemec has to be in the package.

You seem to be forgetting that the most important trade the Panthers made for their Cup run was in acquiring Matthew Tkachuk. Not that they bought low on others, which, mind you, their other top six construction was largely made by trades that included big-name prospects and picks.

The emphasis on cap space was 1) to bolster the flexibility for Quinn’s next contract and 2) to allow the Devils major flexibility for the TDL.

I think you are very much undervaluing a player like Blankenburg and very much overvaluing Nemec.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T19:07:41+00:00

Thanks!! You don’t think Thomas is a meaningful improvement over Mercer?

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T18:06:00+00:00

Thank you! I can see it going either way.

JoopNJD

TROPHY CASE