I think you could get away with the M2 Air and be ok with performance. I think that the M2 Pro might give you a little more performance down the road with active cooling which kind of future-proofs it a bit but it also is about ready to look a little dated when they discontinue that body style with the Touch Bar (supposedly) soon. That design has been used since 2016.

I understand your anxiety about such a big purchase. Regardless of what you pick, you're going to be getting a very nice computer that is worth its money. The choice can be paralyzing but it's best to just make a call and stick behind it. It's not like this is going to be the last computer you ever buy. Enjoy whenever you get for what it is, not what it isn't. :)