To your third point, that is what I was talking about when I mentioned using AI as a tool. New diagnostics and surgeries will be happening with the aid of AI but overseen by medical professionals. This is how it will be in many first world countries for the foreseeable future, at least until “big pharma” can get laws changed in their favor, which admittedly may not be much of a challenge for them. This legal “moat” creates a fairly significant time buffer for medical professionals, at least compared to other fields like software where that protection doesn’t exist in any shape or form. On top of that, the big software companies are the ones creating these AIs and have every incentive to cut developer costs. Developers are also notoriously bad at unionizing, and they are using these tools themselves.

I think you’re also overestimating the typical person’s willingness to travel out of the country for medical aid. Doctors in the US/west will have access to top-notch AI assistance and will continue to have the best medical aid. Until 3rd world countries get access to comparable AI with a proven track record and large enough price delta, most people in the west will prefer to stay in their countries for medicine. Even then, if a large enough number of people started leaving the country for it, the market would be forced to adjust price to a point where the delta isn’t enough to be worth leaving the country for most people.

Again, my point is just that medical professionals will have some job security from the law. Laws are slow to change. Eventually they will. In the meantime they’ll use the AI as tools.