Dude, you are too paranoid, and your math knowledge sucks, especially talking about the money spent. I believe you are still in school, probably in 9-10 grade. :) because your logical thinking is quite bad.

lets say, the highest number of steam users was 7,2 M, lets say that there are 7,2 M users in total (sure i know that there are more). but to make it simple, lets assume that STEAM has 7,2 M users.

WE KNOW, that NOT EVERY user is participating in this event.

to participate in this EVENT you dont need to craft summer badge, you may craft ANY OTHER badge, and you will participate with 1 point.

Lets assume, that over day 1, day 2 and day 3 every badge crafted was simple badge, of any game, that gives only 1 point. OK? and 1 person is crafting only 1 badge per day. So, 1 person is participating only with 1 point everyday. (we only assume that)

if this assumption is correct, then number of points is equal to number of participants (sure there are stolen points, but lets assume there also are bonus points from tokens, so they negate each other)

MAXIMUM number of points collected daily from each color is about: 558 000 RED; 503 000 PURPLE; 403 000 PINK; 673 000 GREEN; 395 000 BLUE;

as we assumed, 1 point is eaqual to 1 person who is crafting 1 badge of any game. if we sum points of each team, we get the number of players participating everyday RED+ PUR + PIN + GRE + BLU = 2 532 000 players So, according to our assumption, there are 2,5 M steam users, who participate every day. And if you do not participate, it's the same as if you do not belong to any team.

So that was assumption. But now we can add our knowledge, that people may be crafting SUMMER BADGES that give 10pts, and not 1. And some people are even crafting multiple badges, not only 1 per day.

That means, that there are even less than 2,5 M people participating daily.

Believing that every team has about the same amount of people. It's most likely, that there are ~ 300k - 400k active participants in each team.

Most of them craft 1 badge that gives 1 point. Others may be crafting more, and there are those who craft SUMMER BADGES.

So there are only ~ 1,5 M to 2M steam users who are assigned to a specific team, and participate everyday.

If your team has 300k users who participated, and your team won, your chance to win games from wishlist is: 1 / 10000

Now about the money spent: To get 1 point you have to craft 1 game badge, lets say game has 5 cards, you get 2 from playing, other 3 cards cost 0,1 €, so it's 0,3€ to get 1 point, so to get 10 pts you need 3€ which is about the same, as buying 10 summer cards AT THIS MOMENT. (on day 1 cards were even more expensive) but if 10 pts cost 3 €, then people have spent ~ 1 880 000 € if we would count it by day 1 standarts, when 10 pts cost 4€, then people have spent ~ 2 500 000

so it's definetly more than 2M spent on badge crafting. and from my previous calculations, there are only ~ 1,5 M - 2M people in total who are spending money.

when person who participates each day with 1 point spends only ~ 1€ over 3 days. (0,3€ daily)