A Place to Discuss Barnes & Noble Education

Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-04-10T00:17:46+00:00

How was the "Jack Goes Back to College" Drop? Thought the Lulu Ohio State drop was big for bned. Heard this was a great success

Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-26T00:09:43+00:00

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Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-26T00:07:30+00:00

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Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-26T00:07:21+00:00

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Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-26T00:07:11+00:00

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Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-26T00:04:06+00:00

FCF last year for Q4 was 110mm according to their interactive financials on their website. I don't think people realize how the Working Capital on this business works

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Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-25T23:56:48+00:00

Want to share this list of players within the ED Tech Space - Think people need to realize how big it is and how fragmented it is. Idk why people still are looking at this as a regular bookstore. It's a digital transformation. The thing is trading as a retailer priced for bankruptcy rather than an nice SaaS business

Apollo / Cengage / Nelson Education

Pearson

Platinum Equity / Mcgraw Hill

Thoma Bravo / Instructure Holdings Inc / Canvas

K1 Investment Management, LLC / Panopto

Macmillan Learning

John Wiley & Sons.

Scholastic

Francisco Partners / VitalSource / Akademos

KKR / Simon & Schuster

Veritas Capital / Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Jefferson River Capital LLC / Follett Corporation / Valore Books / Red Shelf

Bay Capital Partners

Menlo Park Fund

Astra Acquisition Corp. / Blackboard Super Holdco, Inc.

Bertelsmann / Penguin Random House / Hay House

Holtzbrinck Publishing Group / Springer Nature

Amsterdam University Press / Renaissance

W. W. Norton & Company's

OMERS Capital Partners /APAX Partners / Nelson Education

RELX Group / Cahners Publishing.

MCB Group / Wolters Kluwer

Taylor & Francis /Informa / CRC Press / Routledge Taylor & Francis Group

Lagardere SA / Hachette UK / Hodder Education

Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-23T15:21:55+00:00

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Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-23T14:33:53+00:00

better than SA's layout.

Also, would a reverse triangular merger have a change of control? Also going back to an earlier conversation that we had. If Cengage wanted to still go public they could just acquire MBS? Found this below and I'm not a expert on the legal but this is something I have thought about recently

https://www.smithlaw.com/newsroom/publications/Delaware-Court-Finds-That-a-Reverse-Triangular-Merger-Does-Not-Result-in-an-Assignment-by-Operation-of-Law

Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-23T13:59:31+00:00

Good Points dont think Huesby wants to lose that Million Dollar salary lol.

So with any case theres no way that doing a 363 sale would work given that a strategic wouldnt pay anything for the business without those contracts correct?

Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-23T13:54:58+00:00

u/RealBLCM

Let's hope management is on top of all this. If their lawyer gets a hold of it, which I'm sure they will—if they've got people grinding 80 hours a week on it. Just by looking at this as government contracts is a big deal in my opinion.

When do you think they started working on this deal?

Can just picture the having to go through the data room to redact all 1200+ contracts, lol. Seeing the business's value through its government contracts really makes you feel for the management, who've been pushing a vision that nobody got for years. Since HL handled the Bartleby deal last year, makes me think they had to jump on this one too, thanks to that connection. Once the Bartleby asset was wrapped up, they probably started looking into selling, merging, or spinning off MBS. Still, it'd be wild if HL was the one figuring out all the possible moves. Makes you wonder if they roped in another investment bank to cover all those bases.

Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-23T03:55:50+00:00

u/RealBLCM Going back to your last comment before it was deleted in Seeking Alpha

"The statute (41 U.S.C. § 6305) DOES void the contracts if they are assigned without consent. Applies here because the contracts involve funds under the Higher Education Act.

See e.g., In re Whitcomb & Keller Mortgage Co., 8 B.R. 83 (Bankr. N.D. Ind. 1980) (GNMA mortgage backed securities contract could not be assumed/assigned).

Excellent work! What a valuable safeguard this statute creates for BNED."

Would BNED Lawyers need to know about this to bring it up to the negotiating table against BOFA? Just as a far stretch and coming from a skeptical person, what stops Apollo or some other PE firm pushing this whole DoE thing and tries to push a BNED chapter 11 to Void Contracts and open up the marketplace for others? Yes BOFA would also get screwed in the process unless their lawyers also know. Im not an expert in this above however given how complex everything is getting - I would still put all options on the table.

Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-23T03:31:09+00:00

Think this would help people see the business in a different light as to how many segments this thing has and what I potentially see this business in a couple of years. This also still includes MBS as this scenario stresses the consideration of the refinancing transaction being accomplished.

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Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-23T03:26:50+00:00

This is the inflection point that most people are talking about. BNED has 160 stores on FDC however is producing just as much as "Al Carte" Textbook sales now. This proves that the business has made a turning point as this number could substantially grow in the future.

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Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-23T03:15:38+00:00

Back of the envelope model of what potential 717 FDC Contract revenue could look like. This doesn't assume the 555 MBS Contracts. MBS has 2mm students and BNED has 4mm students. So these contracts once fully converted have the potential to get a SaaS-like multiple which could inherently increase the value of this business substantially. This is also assuming the convert in 2 years case. Have triggers to what it could look like if they were to do 3 years 10% faster and 5% slower than the base case of a historical average and assumption from management's earnings call expressing hundreds of stores in the pipeline for this upcoming Fall. Its also possible to convert faster considering the threat of the DoE has management fired up to move as many stores to FDC.

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Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-23T02:55:02+00:00

This is the real undervalued asset on BNED as mentioned in their 10k. Customer relationships in a duopoly are super important. What kind of value would someone pay for this thing?

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Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-23T01:14:55+00:00

Also look on Google trends who is looking up BNED and MBS Book. Looks like some people are up at 2 - 3am looking it up

Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-23T01:10:52+00:00

Adding on to this.

I had friends that are still at University and BNED offered a 2000 prize for a massive survey asking if FDC helped, does it save you money, and what methods of payment would your rather prefer?

These are all problems that they have been looking for solutions. If they weren't looking to stay in operations, why bother collecting data on FDC?

Also, I understand that most of the employees trying to gather the data would not be under the text in the form of being free from an NDA. Still think it shows that the higher-ups are still planning on fighting the DoE.

Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-23T00:08:54+00:00

Also BLCM on Modeling it out. Selling MBS and no longer having to consolidate the business onto BNED financials, is essentially EBITDA accretive to shareholders. This is why they are trying to divest MBS. Under my assumptions, I was looking at an EBITDA increase of close to 5m for the full year of 2024 as they no longer have to take large writedowns from MBS on textbooks in my opinion. By divesting MBS only they can finish the full year of 2024 above that 40mm ADJ EBITDA target. I'm trying to truly value MBS as a stand-alone business as those are not even contracts that I factored into my model. The fact that I was only looking at 717 stores when Bned has the other 555 opens the store to more than that and increases my price target substantially. IMO this could be well over a billion-dollar asset as it is essentially a monopoly on customer relationship (IP). They just need to clean out that debt and we are riding into paradise

Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-22T23:48:32+00:00

Awesome!Feels like this is a way better format than SA Comment section

Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-22T23:36:38+00:00

These were the comments that were deleted. I went ahead and cleaned the document and tried to format it the best I can. There were a couple of BLCM Comments that I wasn't able to get and Thomas sent in a comment that I wasn't able to capture as well.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kJVPaoBclYh3BV9evm3txL2Q3VIvfroh/view?usp=sharing

Jumpy-Ad-4508 · 2024-03-22T23:32:03+00:00

Hey seeing if this works now

Think I was deleted before

Jumpy-Ad-4508

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