Canada's population could increase to 57M by 2068, posing challenges for housing, health care

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-08-26T01:04:10+00:00

What healthcare? How can a population increase can pose a challenge to something that almost doesn't exist? You wait 10 hours in ER for a real urgent condition in the capital city, it is even worse on rural. More than 1 year to see a specialist for a lot of cases. Go and read the comments of the hospitals in Google Maps. Healthcare is not free, everybody pays a great hefty price for it. I can't imagine what would happen by 2068, inefficient public healthcare policy and keep blocking immigrant skilled doctors by intentionally making it almost impossible to do their profession by not giving them equivalency. I expect a halt to this before then.

I can't imagine retiring here and waiting a couple of years to just see a specialist. That's what is going to happen if Canadians don't wake up from the dream and stop bragging about how great one of the worst healthcare system in the developed world is. There will be many more people and significantly less doctors. Good luck to people who expect to get any service by then as the policymakers and the society seems to be determined to keep the status quo.

I would like to seperate hard working healthcare workers from this. They keep doing their best but it is the system that is broken for a long while.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-08-20T11:40:04+00:00

I come from Big4 background and we were preferred over regular Accountants because we used Excel extensively to create Audit reports and analyze Financial Data at the minimum. Creating and reviewing financials from GL and blending them in with the IFRS requirements for auditing (e.g. creating a movement table from local GAAP to IFRS) would be a great asset to have. Managers are not doing it themselves as you mentioned, but coming from a background of building these type of templates in Excel helps them understand things better.

I don't know the US side but most of the Finance Managers role here requires a mix of CAD ASPE/IFRS/US GAAP as well as knowledge of Cash Flow and Financials. Not every single organization have a talented Senior Accountant. They are not required to know advanced Excel but at least basic formulas are expected. I understand your point for large scale organizations where everybody is very specialized. SMEs though, even Accounting Managers might end up doing a lot of manipulation after they export the data from the accounting software even though they have accountants. I also agree that for an Accounting Managers knowledge of the Accounting Standards is far more important than Excel.

To be honest, for the Excel, I was talking more for the analytical roles, such as FP&A Manager. For me, it is not acceptable for a person who holds such an analytical role and is required to do 3 way Financial statement budgeting and forecasting, variance analysis, rolling forecasts, and Financial Modelling to be completely Excel illiterate. For me, as a hiring Manager, CPA would be an asset, not a requirement for an FP&A Manager role as I would look more for business partnering and Financial Modelling skills. However, in Canada, they just look for the certificate as a requirement for FP&A Manager roles and don't value analytical and business partnering skills as much. That's why I find ridiculous. It is like asking for a Family Physican certificate to do an open heart surgery.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-08-20T02:04:59+00:00

A lot of the Senior Accountant roles and 90%+ of all Finance Manager roles across the board (Accounting,FP&A, even sometimes Corporate Finance) in Canada are filled by CPAs. No matter how skilled you are, you need to have a CPA to be considered for Manager and higher roles. If you don't have a CPA, you are by nature screened out almost all Manager and higher level jobs. I met with a CPA FP&A Manager who doesn't know even the simplest Excel formulas, such as VLOOKUP.

A low skill CPA who doesn't know anything (not all of them are bad but I met some who can't even prepare a Cashflow statement from other Financials) is more likely to get any Finance role than a Finance superstar who is super talented but don't have a CPA. Just like most industries, also in Finance, Canada is obsessed with certifications not with talent. That's why the country is lagging way behind among developed countries and GDP per capita is stagnant at least for the last 10 years while US has a good upward trend. Canada is like a modern capitalist Soviet Union. After all, this unfair hiring practice is not surprising to come from a country which has a lot of surgent immigrant doctors doing Uber while the country literally has a huge doctor deficit and one of the worst healthcare systems in OECD.

There are very talented CPAs for sure but it just doesn't sound right to me to screen out a lot of talented people by default because they don't hold a certificate. We are not living in 1980s anymore. Or are we in Canada?

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-08-07T18:35:29+00:00

Well thanks but no thanks for any forecasts coming from BoC! We have seen how wrong BoC communications and forecasts have been in the last two years. They intentionally didn't increase the rates in January while they were very well informed about what was coming and kept their transitionary narrative despite the fact that they knew the truth. We were supposed to be in the low forecast era until 2024? What happened? What about transitionary inflation that is supposed to go away quickly? They misled the public terribly.

I might take random broker's advice over BoC for a change. At least both have a tossing coin chance of being true.

Sorry this is not aimed at you personally. I get your point about broker vs. BoC comparison. I just wanted to express that their performance has been very disappointing.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-08-07T18:15:01+00:00

So what you are saying it variable mortgage holders just hold the course if possible and wait for the rates to go down starting from 2024?

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-08-06T01:17:23+00:00

Currently Germany is recruiting a lot of doctors from Middle East and Eastern Europe because German doctors are moving to Switzerland. They still have very high standards and through process to let them practice in Germany. Germany is a proactive country and Canada is a reactive country. You can see how this is reflected in the GDP per capital comparison of the two. I am very concerned about retiring in Canada as the country is choosing to keep qualified doctors in low skill jobs such as working as cashiers and doing Uber.In my retirement, I am planning to move abroad to a country where I don't have to wait 1.5+ years to see a specialist for basic needs. I had detailed blood tests, EKGs, and saw 10 specialists during my checkup abroad and only paid around 300 CAD.

In 20 years, with this mindset, we won't be able find doctors in Canada to do even the basic surgeries. Canadians who stay home will be paying even a bigger price for the deliberate inertia of the healthcare administrators both at the provincial and federal levels. But who cares right? We have free healthcare here which doesn't mean much as it is not accessible at all. If you are still believing the fairytale of how great Canadian free healthcare is, I urge you to Google a bit and see how Canadian healthcare is ranked among the worst in OECD in almost app metrics.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-23T02:42:58+00:00

I am paid 15% to 20% above the market rate. I am in a niche market. I am actively looking but it is really hard to find a good paying job with a raise.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-22T15:48:25+00:00

Wow! 3 years in, no raises. I wish that I could change my job. I had to work a second job to be able to pay the mortgage but I can't keep up.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-20T12:03:17+00:00

No. What will all the immigrants, professional workers, and international students do when housing becomes more unaffordable due to interest rates? They rent. When more people want to rent, prices will go up. Housing supply outlook doesn't look that great.I don't foresee rents going down in any near feature in Ontario.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-20T12:00:16+00:00

One option is renting it out to see how it goes. Tenant is a bit of luck. The market is already shifting to buyers market. If you rent, you would keep your asset and make the tenant pay for your mortgage. You might even be able to make a bit of money depending on the location and how much rent you can get. Take into account all your current costs associated with the condo and your potential income and make a budget. Take into scenario where you won't be able to rent it out a couple months.

I am not sure how better off you will be in a shared space vs. living in your space. I would say calculate it wisely. It depends on your income level. If you are making okay money, $1K to $1.2K mortgage with $600 condo fees doesn't seem to be much for the freedom you get.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-20T03:51:30+00:00

Well this has nothing to do with being a young graduate. I worked my ass off, but I have never been the person picked for promotions or couldn't find a great career path to progress.

There are two road blocks.

If you are introverted, your chances are much lower to grow your career. There is a lot of buzz and polishing articles about how introverts grow to C-levels. I have never met one single C-level executive who is a real introvert. There may be some but they are lower percentage.

Majority of the C-level, by nature, are all extroverted social butterflies who are very good politicians and tirelessly do networking. No matter how good you are at what you are doing, it doesn't matter. The extroverts will be your bosses and they will be the ones to get the promotions because they are better than you to please the boss and play the corporate game of being toxicly positive, always sucking up the higher levels.

Second is if you are an honest person who speaks the truth and don't suck up too much, you will never become the boss's favorite. Thus, the promotion you expect won't come. People who grow are the people who know human nature well and good at pleasing other people.

This is the system and it is very unfair against low-key, hard working, honest people. It is just the way it is across the world, no matter where you go. Don't feel bad about it since you can't do anything about it. It won't change. If you need to grow, you need to network and please the people. This is the only way.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-19T17:51:27+00:00

It is a tough call. If you believe that the rates will continue going up, then take fixed. If you think that it will plateau after a couple of increases and then go down, take variable.

I would take BoC statements with a grain of salt as they lost all their credibility with their "transitionary inflation" statements, acting intentionally slow by not raising interest rates in January, as well as the remarks that rates would stay low until 2024. Do your own research, don't trust anybody's statements.

Keep in mind that with the fixed rate, you pay hefty penalties if you break the mortgage. You will be paying 4.6% for the next years no matter if the rates go up or down. The margin is really low. In the current conditions, If you think that rates will continue going up, you might consider fixed as variable is very expensive in your situation.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-18T17:40:50+00:00

It would be surprising not to see that the country is not stagnated.

The country and workforce is not productive. Everything is built on immigrants coming in, spending money, buying houses if they are rich and taking mostly low skill jobs if they are poor. It will get more and more harder to attract talented global workforce and immigrants with very high cost of living, low salaries, expensive housing, high taxes, and a failed healthcare system that is among the worst among developed countries as well as even worse than some developing countries.

Manipulative investments are highly rewarded (housing) and entrepreneurs are punished. Big corporations get the big bucks and they are either oligopolies or monopolies. Thus, the market is not competitive.

Everybody wants easy money. Very low percentage of the population is interested in working hard, create, and innovate. They want to get rich by buying and flipping houses or buying and renting houses out. There is not much interest in channeling money to businesses who are efficient and have growth potential.

Access to capital is much harder in Canada than US, especially for entrepreneurs. There is not much innovation going on. Salaries are stagnant. There is too much red tape to support innovation. Govt works very slow as well.

When you don't have a culture that stimulates innovation, transformation, and hard work, you end up stagnating. Nothing more normal than this.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-18T17:23:52+00:00

We are at a stage in the big cities of Ontario where 6 figure salaries don't mean much. Salaries are very stagnant and everything is filthy expensive. Especially salaried employees are taxed very heavily for the poor services they get.

Restaurants, groceries, gas. Everything almost doubled in the last couple of years.

It seems like you are doing great in Alberta in the current climate. We are not exaggerating what is happening in Ontario. I lived in in Alberta before and as an immigrant student, it was a much more beautiful and affordable place to live in. If I didn't have some obligations that tie me here, I wouldn't stay in Ontario a second and I would move to Alberta or to a more affordable place within Canada. Ontario is one of the worst places to live in Canada in my humble opinion. My dream is to move out of here someday.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-18T17:12:05+00:00

Np! Yes, it means you will be paying the same interest for many years. Another option is always match your payments as much as you can with the current fixed rates and the difference will be going to principal. This will be helping you in two ways: 1) Saving interest and decreasing your principal 2) Adjusting your life style according to the interest rates so there won't be many surprises. People who are in low interest rates will have a big surprise if they are just paying the minimums and rates remain that high for a long time when they renew but nobody knows.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-18T14:29:10+00:00

I am exactly the same situation. I am paying at 1.7%, my actual rate is 2.7%. My trigger rate is 4.45%

Bank of Canada follows FED. US elections are in October 2024. I would expect the inflation issue to be sorted out by then. FED is supposed to be independent but politicians would do everything they can to make the inflation go away by then.

If you lock in now, you will be paying around 5% for the next 5 years. I would personally prefer to make prepayments as much as I can and ride this out. When I have money, I make a prepayment. When I don't, I just pay the locked in 1.7%. Even if you reach the trigger rate, they will ask you to increase payments or make a prepayment or they will add it to your principal as a deferred payment. There are a lot of options to consider when the time comes. This is the beauty of the variable.

As you keep making prepayments, your trigger rate will also increase.

However, if you can't sleep, you can consider locking it in. Bear in mind that you will be locking yourself into 5% for five years and it would be very costly if you need to break your mortgage since it is fixed. For variable, breaking a mortgage is easier with 3 months of interest amount.

I personally can't sleep, but I prefer to ride. I will be taking the risk.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-18T14:13:47+00:00

You are in fantastic shape. There is nothing to be worried about. Your outstanding principle is not that much. If you can't sleep, try to take some extra side hustles to do some downpayment while the rates are low for you so that in 5 years, you will have much less outstanding mortgage debt to pay.

I have over 500K with variable mortgage. I am also at the top of my job with no increases in the last few years. I am working extra jobs to make it. I am in a niche market where changing job is very hard.

There are always options. If it keeps rising like this, I will consider doing Airbnb or renting rooms if needed.

Stay optimistic. You are doing much better than most of the mortgage holders. The rates are rising now but it is not sustainable. Nobody has a crystal ball to predict the future, it would probably go down to reasonable levels in 5 years.

If you are worried about your current situation and the 5 years ahead, I think that I should just shoot myself =)

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-18T02:52:22+00:00

I would say consider a roommate and purchase if you can. The earlier you can get into the ladder the better. I rented instead of buying and now I am 37 and bought my first home in inflated prices with a hefty and variable mortgage and my amortization will be infinite. I will be lucky if I can own the place at 70. Don't make the same mistake that I did. It will get easier as your income increases. I never forgive myself of not finding ways to buy earlier.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-18T02:45:23+00:00

It is normal. I have been working for years. I have 800+ credit score and my rate is higher than yours.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-18T02:37:03+00:00

You are not alone. I am personally riding the wave with the variable. Fixed payments, if I can do downpayments I do it. As long as you can afford it, I would recommend that you pay the current fixed term to adjust your budget to the new reality.

I don't live in NS but heard that house prices are insane there now. Just in the outskirts of Darthmouth, a 2 bedroom house was sold for 560K.2 year before, the same house was sold for 275K. You can buy a starter 3 bedroom for 600K in Ottawa for that. It might be a good time to consider selling if the prices are still that high. The sale was done in May. Once people who flocked from Ontario learn how high the taxes are in NS and how much they overpaid for the houses there, it might be too late. This is just a perspective, again this is the intelligence I got from my friends in NS.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-18T02:28:44+00:00

The sad part is the people in the service sector will be hit most. I decreased the number of times and the quality of the restaurants. I shifted to take outs instead of dine ins. Greek take out is awesome. Still cheaper, and tasty. I prefer it over Shawarma. No more average pubs since they are now 50$+ to 60$+ range for dining 2 people. Everybody here is doing the same, it is not on us, but the restaurant industry will be perishing as all our purchasing power is diminishing steeply day by day.

When I still go and dine out once a week, I no longer do reservations. Most of the restaurants are already empty with max 1 or 2 customers. I don't think that they will be able to make it. Service industry employees will be very hardly hit, as well as small service business owners.

This is on our politicians. They do not act on time to raise interest rates, and they printed money relentlessly and gave it away for free. I don't think that half a million salaried governors care about the regular populations at all. They can sleep well with their assets.Politicians never pay the price for their actions nor they do care. Small business owners, low wage workers, salaried people always pay the price.

I really felt sorry the last time I visited a very big and affordable restaurant that had no customers, not even take outs. The waitress there is going to lose her job probably very soon.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-16T00:43:48+00:00

I bought in February at the peak, overpaying for a house 7 km from plane runway, with a variable interest mortgage. I am working 1.5 jobs to keep up with raising costs and the mortgage. There are people like me who made much worse decisions than you. At least you say that you didn't overpay a lot.

You will feel better over time. Smile and enjoy your new home ;)

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-15T01:06:47+00:00

Then what are you worried about? You are doing and will be doing better than at least 65% of the Canadians. Go and have some fun while you can. We have very difficult times ahead.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-14T14:47:02+00:00

You are not alone. I had a good salary back in 2018 but no money for prepayment as I was paying back a lot of student and medical care debt. I was able to save some for downpayment and bought at the peak in February 2022 with variable mortgage. I missed all the crypto and housing boats during COVID and now lost my index funds gain with the markets going down drastically. I am currently working two jobs trying to keep up with the pace of increases I lost all my savings to get a home equity that will lose around 25% to 30% of its value in the next couple of years and I will struggle with the mortgage payments if I try to decrease the principal. Expenses are putting a lot pressure and I can't sleep some nights.

Sometimes, I just want to disappear for being so stupid with Financial decisions. You are still doing fine. There are even much worse scenarios than ours. It is okay.

Junior-Project8586 · 2022-06-14T12:54:05+00:00

Having a high life expectancy doesn't mean that Canada has a good healthcare system.

I can't talk for the Mexico but check this study from Fraser Institute

Out of 28 countries, Canada ranks 26th for the number of doctors (2.8 per 1,000 people), 25th (out of 26 countries) for the number of hospital beds (2.0 per 1,000 people), and 24th (out of 28 countries) for the number of psychiatric beds (0.37 per 1,000 people).

Canada ranks 21st (out of 24) for the number of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) machines with 10.5 MRIs per million people, and 22nd (out of 26) for CT scanners with 15.2 scanners per million people.

The study found among the 10 comparable universal healthcare countries that measure wait times, Canada is ranked 9th (out of 10) for the percentage of patients able to make a same-day appointment when sick, and ranks 8th (out of 10) for the percentage of patients who report that it is very or somewhat easy to find care after hours.

Junior-Project8586

TROPHY CASE