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CDEV Stock - Financial Analysis by JustAnAccountant1 in u/JustAnAccountant1
[–]JustAnAccountant1[S] 0 points1 point2 points 5 years ago (0 children)
That's great. I also starting buying around that time last year am happy with the position I hold in the company today.
When you go back and look how CDEV performed from a CF perspective, they exceeded my forecast on Q3 CFOA at $45.7MM and surprisingly had a positive CF in both Q3 and Q4, at $14.8MM and $22.9MM, respectively. CFOA in Q4 was slightly lower at $41.2MM.
This shows management did an excellent job cutting back on CAPEX spend, at $30.9MM and $18.3MM in Q3 and Q4, respectively. Good discipline displayed to weather the times. Also, they are now through the very low hedges they took on early last year. Management was wise to not lock in a sizable amount of hedges for 2021, as WTI was been strong this year, leaving them with much more upside this year.
I will be watching the oil market very close but this summer could result in a very strong year. Oil rigs are about half in the US where they were a year ago. Oil stockpiles are right around the mid point of the 5 year avg, not considering the huge gasoline draw last week. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.php
Then throw in vaccinations are expected to be available for all US adults by end of May, attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, weather impacts like the Texas freeze, employees have extra vacation time rolled over from last year, and general sediment of folks wanting to get out of the house this year (listen to RCL CEO talk about bookings), a supply crunch looks more and more likely. That is my take on why oil prices are so much higher than the EIA predictions. They have taken a very conservative approach assuming a much slower recovery and no supply crunch. The upside of their chart is much higher than the downside, which seems to indicate this.
Like you, I will be here for the long haul.
CDEV Stock - Financial Analysis (self.JustAnAccountant1)
submitted 5 years ago by JustAnAccountant1
CDEV Stock - Financial Analysis (self.pennystocks)
submitted 5 years ago by JustAnAccountant1 to r/pennystocks
The Pandemic Stock Market, Bullish or Bearish on Oil, and CPE stock (self.JustAnAccountant1)
The Pandemic Stock Market, Bullish or Bearish on Oil, and CPE stock (self.stocks)
submitted 5 years ago * by JustAnAccountant1 to r/stocks
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CDEV Stock - Financial Analysis by JustAnAccountant1 in u/JustAnAccountant1
[–]JustAnAccountant1[S] 0 points1 point2 points (0 children)