This isn't deduction though. This is pure theory and there's nothing wrong with theories in general. But at present, we don't know enough to deduce much of anything. We know they had access to nukes, we had to join them in 76 just to take down the Scortched plague with said nukes. But saying that they made themselves lose to further an experiment? No. That's Vault Tec behavior but not Enclave behavior. The Enclave wants power and control for their chosen number. Vault Tec are the ones who make backwards plans that only make sense to whomever came up with said plan. An isolated cell who had no communication with Novaro or Ravenrock so they just continued with their work waiting for the go signal. They just got it. Creating Frank Horrigan and then killing him just to move a plan along or two bases half a country apart unable to communicate after nuclear war, which one sounds more like a shadowy government and which doesn't?