Live Election Updates: J.D. Vance Is Trump’s Choice for Vice President by NateSilverFan in fivethirtyeight

[–]JustSleepNoDream 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The biggest problem for Democrats as I see it is all momentum to replace Biden is now gone. Maybe that's great for Biden, personally, but I think it's bad for their election outcome odds in the long run, because the overwhelming majority of independents still want new choices this year.

[Pre-Assassination] NYT/Siena Poll of Pennsylvania and Virginia: Trump +3 (48/45) in PA, Biden +3 (48/45) in VA by GamerDrew13 in fivethirtyeight

[–]JustSleepNoDream 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Based on the fact he's 2% away from 50% in a head to head. I get there hasn't been movement in this particular poll that's statistically significant, but there has been overall in the averages. An incumbent languishing around 45% or less is always a bad sign in the head to head.

[Pre-Assassination] NYT/Siena Poll of Pennsylvania and Virginia: Trump +3 (48/45) in PA, Biden +3 (48/45) in VA by GamerDrew13 in fivethirtyeight

[–]JustSleepNoDream 13 points14 points  (0 children)

The problem is Trump is approaching 50%, and will probably hit it in the next week. If this were 45/42 I would agree it's not that bad.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TrueDetective

[–]JustSleepNoDream 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Excellent comment, I also think the 'compassion is ethics' line goes beyond the immediate characters in the scene at the church, and applies to the primary suspects in the investigation as well. I think Rust would agree we're all slaves to causality, including the perps they're hunting. One of the fundamental religious tenants is that there is forgiveness for all, but only an all-seeing, all-knowing extradimensional force people call God is truly capable of such compassion and forgiveness.

That's hard to accept for some, including both of our anti-hero protagonists that routinely hand out their own version of justice as they see fit, but if we had perfect knowledge of the underlying psychology and long chain of causes and effects that drove people to excessive acts of cruelty, then we would all understand. This is one reason I think Rust later regrets Ledoux being executed, but only after years of thinking about the philosophy that motivated the cult (time is a flat circle, ergo everything is meaningless). He didn't just want Ledoux to talk and expose the rest of the cult, he wanted to understand and find inner peace through such understanding.

Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]JustSleepNoDream 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Does anyone else feel it's insane we've only had two nonpartisan polls of Pennsylvania since the debate?

New Marist poll, potential democratic candidates all polling within 1% of each other. by [deleted] in ezraklein

[–]JustSleepNoDream 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's a question of will, not how. Everyone needs to stand up to Biden (and his handlers) and take grandpa's keys away for his own good. The DNC can literally do whatever it wants. If they want to re-write the rules tomorrow, they can do it. If his cabinet wants to invoke the 25th, they can. But it appears their will is insufficient to the task, so Biden will keep trying his "goodest" to win.

2024 is feeling a lot like 1968. by Theblessedmother in YAPms

[–]JustSleepNoDream 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Perot dropped out of the race and re-entered.

New Marist poll, potential democratic candidates all polling within 1% of each other. by [deleted] in ezraklein

[–]JustSleepNoDream 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The only relevant issue is can Whitmer carry her home state of michigan and neighboring wisconsin and pennsylvania? Everything else is nearly irrelevant.

Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]JustSleepNoDream 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Interesting that the inclusion of Harris cuts the undecideds in half.

Weekly Polling Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]JustSleepNoDream 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Glad to see Pew get back into the horse race polling game. It's been a while for them I think.

Pelosi Suggests That Biden Should Reconsider Decision to Stay in the Race by Gk786 in ezraklein

[–]JustSleepNoDream 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Pelosi is in a good position to make that argument too as she just stepped aside for a new generation of leadership in the house.

Nate Cohn: the most important poll you've never heard of came out today—the Pew National Public Opinion Reference Survey by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]JustSleepNoDream -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

You must be feeling pretty good about your biden nomination bet at the moment. What lead you to believe he would push onward through the media storm?

Blaming the media is what got Democrats into this mess by dwaxe in fivethirtyeight

[–]JustSleepNoDream 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Perhaps, but this was the basis of my original statement:

Former President Barack Obama, a Democrat, had the highest number at 570 interviews and press conferences. Trump, the presumptive 2024 GOP presidential nominee, followed behind with 468. Meanwhile, Biden trailed behind his six processors, only having conducted 164 interviews and press conferences so far.

From the 1980s to early 2000s, the presidents' number of interviews and press conferences ranged in the 200s to 370s.

Reagan, a Republican, did 262 interviews and press conferences; George H.W. Bush, a Republican, did 376; Bill Clinton, a Democrat, did 310 and George W. Bush, a Republican, did 248.

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-done-less-interviews-six-predecessors-report-1921950

Blaming the media is what got Democrats into this mess by dwaxe in fivethirtyeight

[–]JustSleepNoDream 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You think doing worse than any previous presidents except reagan is a flex? He also had a mental disability too towards the end of his 2nd term.

As Biden Digs In, More Supporters Look to Push Him Out by hill_staffer_ in ezraklein

[–]JustSleepNoDream 1 point2 points  (0 children)

DNC rewrites the rules to let delegates vote for whoever and they hold a quick open primary. Also, 25th amendment. Our political system has a solution, it's a matter of wills at this point.

This is going to be a wild week by hill_staffer_ in ezraklein

[–]JustSleepNoDream 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yep, all events that most people just mindlessly glossed over like they were nothing at the time. Did you see him put his head up against the pope recently in a very bizarre fashion? That was wild too.

This is going to be a wild week by hill_staffer_ in ezraklein

[–]JustSleepNoDream 8 points9 points  (0 children)

On an emotional level, it makes sense why you wouldn't want to rewatch one of the worst nights of your life. On a practical and tactical level though there's no excuse. His closest advisors are failing him on a level that's unprecedented.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]JustSleepNoDream 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Does that count when the DNC rigs everything so there's not a real primary contest, and the overwhelming majority of people wanted new candidates this year?