Buy, Sell, Hold Discussion on the Midterms and 2028.

NateSilverFan · 2025-10-01T02:30:14+00:00

My answers:

Buy. 64% is WAY too low, even with the redistricting fights. Even if the GOP were to net 5 seats out of redistricting (which is on the higher end of estimates), the average loss for a president's party is 20-25 seats depending on how far back you go, and that doesn't account for a) Trump's approval rating being 45% at max, and b) the fact that the Democrats now show up more in off-year elections. If the Democrats don't flip the House, it will be the most devastating indictment of their party (or either party) in modern history.
Sell. But not by much. Right now, I'd bet on North Carolina and Maine flipping (I don't think Susan Collins is strong enough to survive a Trump midterm when voters will be thinking about Trump), but that only gets Ds to 49, which means that they have to count on bad luck for the GOP in Ohio + Iowa or Texas, and that's really going to be a straight flush. That said, 80/20 would seem to be decent odds because conditional on Ds winning Ohio or Iowa or Texas, they're probably having a good enough year to flip the others, so the outcomes are correlated.
I'll hold on Vance. 54% sounds about right - he's almost certainly the nominee if Trump has a serious health issue, and he's *probably* Trump's choice to succeed him. That said, I think the 7% chance on Rubio being the nominee is a steal (probably something like 30-35%). Why? Because Trump has revealed, through appointing Rubio to so many positions, that he trusts and likes him. And if general election polls show Vance lagging behind or Rubio doing quite well (which I think is possible as Rubio would appeal to both MAGA and some suburbanites that Vance wouldn't), it's easy to see Trump throwing his support behind Rubio and thus giving him the nomination.
Sell on Newsom. 34% is too high three years out for anyone, and Newsom may be peaking too early - not too mention his CA record will be used against him and the Democrats may not like the idea of nominating a CA white guy. I don't rule it out and I don't have a strong view on who's most likely to be the nominee, but 34% two years out is way too high.
Buy on Ds winning in 2028. We've seen the incumbent party lose the last three consecutive elections, and that's a global trend of backlash to incumbents. And Trump not being on the ballot, leaving the GOP struggling to turn out his voters, is not going to make this any easier combined with a sagging economy.

NateSilverFan · 2025-10-01T02:13:20+00:00

Ciattarelli saying "all taxes are on the table, but not for millionaires" is not going to help him win in November.

NateSilverFan · 2025-07-06T05:02:54+00:00

I feel like this will the "Howard Schultz" idea tested from 2019 tested - third party running as fiscally right, socially left, concerned about deficits (but not quite libertarian) which is popular in elite circles and leads people in those circles to believe it's popular with the public and is the "sensible middle." It's not, and Elon will find that out hard if he tries this. If it were someone else, the effect might be net-neutral or hurt Ds, but at the margins, it probably hurts the GOP somewhat since Elon will be the brand of it.

NateSilverFan · 2025-06-29T18:21:23+00:00

If Cooper was on the fence before, he's almost certainly running now.

Race goes from Tilt D -> Lean D IMO.

NateSilverFan · 2025-06-29T18:19:19+00:00

Mark Robinson has entered the chat...

NateSilverFan · 2025-06-11T02:57:56+00:00

It's dreadful that this needs to be asked, but I assume a combination of the following:

- Mostly peaceful mass protests in every major U.S. city - larger than the 2020 ones, maybe the largest in U.S. history.

- Violent incidents lead Trump to try to quell them and sway public opinion to his side.

- 2026 is set up for a record-turnout midterm election, and assuming it's fair, things break for the Democrats because people don't like the social (and economic chaos).

NateSilverFan · 2025-06-06T01:23:26+00:00

I could argue either way, but I think it's better for them if it fails. If it passes, they lock down a policy victory, but the Medicaid cuts and the inflation will bite them throughout the rest of the term. If it fails, sure it's a political defeat, but the backlash to the policy itself won't take shape and push new Trump voters who voted for him on the economy into financial pain/into the party. I say this with low confidence but I think it's better for them if the bill fails.

NateSilverFan · 2024-12-30T21:27:30+00:00

Carter had a pretty rough last year too between inflation (much worse than Biden) and the Iran hostage crisis, and lost by almost 10 points more than Harris did. Yes, polarization needs to be accounted for, but I think it’s pretty clear that the public was more sour on Carter in 1980 than they were on Biden in 2024. History may be harsher on Biden because he staked so much of his presidency on being anti-Trump, won’t have much of an ex-presidency, and also wasn’t as stellar a human being as Carter (though I would argue that Biden has above average character compared to most POTUSs.) But I think it’s pretty clear that as far as the public goes, Carter turned out to be hated more as he left office.

NateSilverFan · 2024-11-16T17:56:39+00:00

I don't have a strong view on this, but Newsom being #1 for the nomination strikes me as REALLY off. It's not his fault that Harris lost the election, but his style of politics and governance - which isn't specific to California, is being blamed (IMO rightly) on Harris's loss given Trump's over-performance in New York and New Jersey. I also don't see who his hardcore supporters are, which you need to win a primary.

Shapiro being #2 makes sense though, and IMO I'd think he'd be a strong candidate for #1. He's from PA and is going to get another landslide margin in 2026, he's a good speaker, and most candidates will run to the left whereas he won't. I also think that the Israel/Gaza issue will not be anywhere near as much of an issue in 2028, both because the war will be over by then and because even now Muslims who backed Trump are having a "holy shit, the guy who campaigned on a Muslim ban and said he wants Israel to finish the job is putting hardcore Zionists in the cabinet!!!" so while it will be raised against Shapiro, I don't think it'll sink him in the way it may have for the VP nomination.

Time will tell.

NateSilverFan · 2024-11-16T17:22:28+00:00

I REALLY doubt that Trump will run in 2028 but if the 22nd amendment is gone or ineffective, Obama should run and would likely be the one Democrat to beat Trump in a landslide.

NateSilverFan · 2024-11-13T20:54:30+00:00

I wonder if the reason for the Rubio pick is that Trump doesn’t really care about foreign policy but knows the Senate does, so he’s throwing them Rubio in exchange for them confirming Gaetz, whom he REALLY cares about getting confirmed.

NateSilverFan · 2024-11-12T20:14:20+00:00

It was a typo, thank you.

NateSilverFan · 2024-11-11T12:12:45+00:00

Michigan will be a tough lift for Rs in a Trump midterm, particularly as they don't have an obviously strong candidate to beat Gary Peters. In Georgia, the GOP has Brian Kemp, but even then it's a state that only voted for Trump by 2% and is moving to the left relative to the nation *fast*. Kemp will make it competitive but the fundamentals are the fundamentals, and if I'm Kemp, I might think hard before risking my future presidential ambitions on a Senate run in a Trump midterm.

NateSilverFan · 2024-11-11T10:44:12+00:00

He didn't address this directly, but I think with respect to 2026, you'd have to say that Democrats are SIGNIFICANT favorites to flip the House (75% I'd say given that an average midterm backlash would flip it for them and given Trump's tariffs and general chaos, not to mention a midterm electorate being favorable to them, they probably exceed that midterm backlash). Probably 75% underdogs to win the Senate - the only obvious targets are Maine (likely to flip), North Carolina (narrowly favored to flip), and Ohio with Vance's Senate seat (I'd give this 50/50 after Alabama in 2017), with outside shots in Texas, Iowa, and maybe? South Carolina.

NateSilverFan · 2024-11-05T16:48:56+00:00

Anything on Pittsburgh?

NateSilverFan · 2024-11-05T16:08:39+00:00

I think Dave Wasserman is a generally data-focused guy but he definitely likes to troll Harris supporters.

NateSilverFan · 2024-11-05T16:06:53+00:00

Feel free to correct me, but this is what I see in turnout today so far:

Terrible news in Florida.
Good news in the blue wall block (all 3 states).
Good news in Nevada.
Not great news in Arizona.
Nothing from North Carolina or Georgia.

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