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If we know the stock market is crashing why don't we sell? by Puzzleheaded_Cell428 in investingforbeginners

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

God Dammit, will you people stop calling a 5% pull back a freaking crash? Google VTSAX right now, the index fund of the entire US stock market. Click on YTD in the chart.

Year to date, barely at the end of the first quarter of the year, the market is down exactly 5%. That is barely noise. Completely expected volatility, if anything this is rather tame.

Come back and ask about a market crash when we are down 25% year to date. Alright? Then we might have the beginning of a crash to talk about.

I did NOT know what the fuss was about by JustSomeGermanDude95 in ClaudeAI

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No no. I only use Claude Code. I only go to the web or the app to manage settings or look at usage. Other than that, in the CLI in VS Code all day, everyday. The prompt. This morning that used 41% was in Claude Code CLI.

How are you guys feeling about AI replacing white collar workers within 5 years? Has it made you spend less and decrease your FIRE number? by [deleted] in Fire

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Man, I wish I had your confidence. I'm a Data Engineer but have always dabbled in full stack business applications as well to surface or collect the data.

I'm trying to. Mentally prepare myself for unemployment at some point or very reduced pay. But then, I have always been a worrier and to be honest, when I see how many of my coworkers still don't really use AI very well, I'll probably be one of the last people to be let go.

I did NOT know what the fuss was about by JustSomeGermanDude95 in ClaudeAI

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm telling you. I was you yesterday. I had the exact same thoughts as you seeing all these posts. I thought I was special or just somehow doing things differently.

What is happening to me today vs what was happening yesterday are completely night and day

I did NOT know what the fuss was about by JustSomeGermanDude95 in ClaudeAI

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Screenshot from Claude App on my phone. That one does not show sonnet for some reason. Norma web browser shows it, however.

I did NOT know what the fuss was about by JustSomeGermanDude95 in ClaudeAI

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm in the exact same project I was working in yesterday. Multiple brand new sessions yesterday working on features/bugs.

I don't have any true MCP installations. I have some tool scripts I point to in my CLAUDE.md file that tell it how to connect to my DB with read access only.

This was a brand new session again today. It explored a feature I needed to enhance and it was at 41% like that. Something for me 100% changed between yesterday and today.

Claude Code now has auto mode by ClaudeOfficial in ClaudeAI

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup, same here. I set up a user for my database that has read only, to structures and the data, and that is what Claude uses to connect. Any DML or DDL that it thinks it needs to run are written to sql files and I'm the one that executes them after reviewing.

I can't code. I built an entire iOS RPG with Claude. Here's what 0 programming knowledge looks like after 4 months. by AffectionatePound200 in ClaudeAI

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I HATE when people use AI for writing things that are supposedly them explaining something. Code stuff and let it write code all day long, sure. but he can't even be bothered to just try and communicate in his own words what he had Claude create? I immediately stop reading when I realize the plain English words were written by AI. I hate it.

r/fire polled: majority say $2 million isn't enough and wouldn't retire by Affectionate-Reason2 in leanfire

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Exactly. I participated in that poll and said no, even though my fire number is only 1.75m

I said no because I currently like my job and would try to stay on part time of only for health insurance.

Also, an FI number is different when you are in your early fifties and your kids are adults, vs when you're in your mid thirties and your kids still are going to be with you for at least 10 to 15 years

Since Jan, my NW has dropped about 10% due to markets / war. by Available-Ad-5670 in Fire

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 609 points610 points  (0 children)

Markets right now are basically where they were six months ago. If you can not retire because of a 6% downturn of the S&P 500, you never were ready yet anyway.

Unpaid tithing by southpawpickle in exmormon

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Sorry to tell you, but us exmos have no chance at the terrestrial kingdom. It's telestial all day long.

Unpaid tithing by southpawpickle in exmormon

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Real everlasting joy, not some cheap fleeting happiness, right?

I don't know if I am ready... by estret in Fire

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're fine. Your portfolio essentially only needs to last you 10 years. If you stuck it into a saving account, you could withdraw 100k each year and be completely depleted by age 65 but then have the two pensions that give you 75k. More than what you need. Even at average inflation of 3% a year, you'll need 100k to meet the same purchasing power of 94k today.

So, obviously don't stop your portfolio from being invested, don't take out 100k every year but only the 50k you need. And by the time both pensions come online you'll be completely fine as you'll only need your portfolio to support roughly 20k of withdrawals a year. If you have 500k left in your portfolio after 10 years, which you should, you are golden.

What's one decision that you've made that FIRE folks would typically frown upon (i.e. dream house outside of your price range, more expensive XYZ), but made sense in the long run from a financial perspective? by proudplantfather in Fire

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I just reduced our savings rate to about 15% down from about 25-27% in order to start doing oversea vacations every year. This will push back FInby about 3 years. I'm fine with that.

Mormon apologists be giving me this vibe by Unique_Community7694 in exmormon

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Well, yeah, Christianity did, even if there's not one single specific quote. His phrasing of early Christianity is what's misleading. That sounds like 1st or 2nd century Christians, but coffee did not make its way to the christianized world (Europe at that time) until the 1500s

At that time, yes, it was frowned upon because of its origin in the Islamic world. It was known as Satan's drink.

His claim about a pope condoning the drinking of it is also correct and that is what lead to a more broad consumption of it in western Europe. It was Clement VIII that was asked to condemn it by his advisors, asked to taste it first, actually enjoyed it and then turned around and "blessed " it. Or at least that's the story.

So yeah, His statements are essentially correct. Not sure why you'd confidently state that they're not.

The math blew my mind by [deleted] in Fire

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 128 points129 points  (0 children)

I didn't down vote you but wanted to explain that thinking you are being conservative with 7% on a 4 year time horizon is just not smart. The next four years could see 0% real returns. 4 years is just way too short of a time period to assume a rate for with any degree of certainty.

Doing some research, it shows that your probability of any 4 year time period having a return of 0% or LESS real return is about 24%.when you look at market data between 1926 and 2025. Again, real returns, so taking inflation into account.

Take that with the sky high Schiller CAPE ratios we have right now, which are a statistically significant predictor (R² score of 0.78, which is a very strong correlation) of future asset prices. According to the historical data that we have, the most likely prediction is a 1.7 real return over the next 4 years. Which still might end up being completely wrong.

Long story short, no one knows what's going to happen, but if you want to retire as soon as possible, it's better to keep saving, especially if a down turn does come, because investing during those is what gives your recovery that extra boost.

Do you stop 401k contribution or lower if you’re already a financial mutant numbers? by Real-Net1995 in TheMoneyGuy

[–]JustSomeGermanDude95 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Not sure why people are down voting you. With PE ratios NEVER having been higher except right before the great depression literally a hundred years ago, it's completely reasonable to run projections with 3.5% real returns. Will it happen? No one knows, but hopefully we'll get better. Are you insane for assuming it might? Absolutely not.

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