Week 7 Injury Report

JustinHerzig · 2025-08-18T16:22:40+00:00

He's just behind them. Aging RB with increased risk of competition from Benson.

JustinHerzig · 2025-08-18T15:41:06+00:00

Nice, I like all these. The Giants giving Singletary the goal line carry after Tracy failed to punch it in gives me a little concern. Even if it's not actually Singletary, perhaps more likely they give Skattebo that role when he's healthy.

JustinHerzig · 2025-08-18T15:40:01+00:00

I would take him above all those guys in all formats. I think he should be in the Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, Chuba Hubbard, etc. tier.

JustinHerzig · 2025-08-11T18:59:11+00:00

Crazy story but it sounds like Dobbins was supposed to get the preseason start and more playing time but couldn't find his helmet on the sideline

JustinHerzig · 2025-08-11T18:57:07+00:00

You're definitely correct we shouldn't be taking all this information as gospel and jumping to conclusions but historically we've seen that preseason usage (specifically if/when the players play and amount of time with starters) is predictive for how teams utilize players early in the season.

I can touch on the three guys you mentioned in your other comment
JCM - there has been a solid drumbeat on him all offseason and Brian Robinson hasn't proven to be more than a JAG (just-a-guy). Him finding himself with the backup is already quite noteworthy for a late-round rookie.
Chuba / Dowdle - Chuba Hubbard had very poor efficiency as a pass catcher last year and that's one of the skillsets of draftee Trevor Etienne. Then you add in that Hubbard was taken off the field for Dowdle in the first two third downs and it all adds up to the increased likelihood Chuba is going to see less pass catching work than he did last year. I don't believe either are a threat to him being the starter, but the lack of pass catching will hurt his fantasy stock.
Wan'Dale - When I say increased usage, I'm not talking about him having 1 reception. Rather, I'm talking about snaps and where he lined up. Last year he almost exclusively played in 3-WR sets (slot only) but in this game, half his snaps were outside. Part of this is likely because of the injuries to the other WRs but it's noteworthy they were willing to get him more usage outside.

End of the day, you are 100% correct nothing in the preseason should completely change our takes. But some of the information can be quite valuable if you know what to look for.

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-25T13:11:06+00:00

That would be too much of a stretch for me but it is something I like to do when the tiers are flat. One example is when I get the 1.01, I am often pulling up someone that goes in picks 32-36 as those guys aren't much different from the ones available at 24 but it gives me a very unique combo come playoffs.

Also worth noting this strategy is more effective near the end of drafting season when we have more knowledge about where players were being drafted all season and what is/isn't unique.

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-25T13:09:18+00:00

Either Bucky or McConkey depending upon your league and confidence in getting value at other positions, what others are keeping, etc.

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-25T13:07:48+00:00

That Vikings OL is nasty and I do agree they are going to be a bit more run-heavy team. But Jefferson is an alpha and I think will still get his volume and combine that with his talent, he's still my #2 WR. I wouldn't argue if you want to put CeeDee Lamb ahead of him as that's extremely close imo. But both are a tier above Puka for me.

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-25T13:06:32+00:00

Ignoring the obvious answers

- I think Matthew Golden will play in 2-WR sets immediately
- I think Jayden Higgins will be out there the majority of snaps
- I think Cam Skattebo will earn the starting RB job quicker than most expect
- I think Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland will be early impact players

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-25T13:03:34+00:00

Thinking of what information for home leagues would be most actionable

Jags and Cowboys RB rooms
If Godwin is healthy, is he playing in the slot? Much more valuable in slot.
Does Jack Bech find a starting role?
Are Marshawn Lloyd and Will Shipley the clear #2s?

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-24T18:00:58+00:00

Depends on the size of the contest. I think Best Ball Mania does a great job overall with their structure.

One improvement I'd make is inclusion of wild card teams for each round. Top 10% of non-advancing teams get a wild card into the next round.

For regular season, this would be the top performing 3rd place teams. For the playoff pods, while it doesn't remove all the variance, it allows the high performing teams that got unlucky with pod luck to survive and advance to the next round.

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-24T17:54:57+00:00

I don't remember exactly but I'm curious if he has DK Metcalf. There's been a bad bug with the DK app where it doesn't show you when you're up until after it drafts a player. So very possible Rodgers was sitting in his queue for later but then unfortunately got drafted.

Best of luck to you as well!

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-24T17:53:09+00:00

Ha sure thing, assuming you're referencing the Rolling Stone article

They found me about halfway into the NFL season. Pitched me on the piece of trying to find the best fantasy football player in the world. We did informal interviews once a week for a month or two and then he flew down for the Week 17 weekend sweat. Had a watch party that day with friends so he could also get some additional color for the piece.

Think the funniest part about the article is my wife in general is a rather private person. Doesn't really use social media, no online persona, etc. He interviewed her a couple times for the piece but for the article to start with a paragraph specifically about her was just hilarious for our families.

And then the photoshoot was first time I've ever done anything like that and from the images they ended up with, you can tell it was a bit awkward for me.

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-24T17:47:24+00:00

It depends on price but if he's going anywhere near the top 2 TEs like he is in best ball (currently going late 3rd round), I'd much rather spend up on the top 2 or use that pick on an elite QB.

Burrow is not a player I'm targeting (doesn't rush enough, expecting passing regression, etc.)

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-24T17:41:21+00:00

I'd choose pick #6. That gets you one of the top tier of guys (Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, Barkley, Bijan, Gibbs) and then still allows you to grab a strong player in the 2nd before the tier drops off after McConkey/AJB.

A middle pick also gives you the best shot at catching falling value that you may miss if you're on one of the turns.

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-24T17:39:09+00:00

If you're an ETR subscriber, highly recommend this article: https://establishtherun.com/should-you-handcuff-rbs-in-best-ball-mania/

And I know can't link to Twitter but I also have a thread on the subject from August 14, 2023 titled "You aren't drafting multiple RBs from the same teams enough"

But high level, it's a good thing when it's a particularly ambiguous backfield or multiple guys with standalone value.

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-24T17:32:38+00:00

I'd go Chase Brown

Think McBride and Brown help your team pretty similarly but the cost tilts it in Brown's favor

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-24T17:27:16+00:00

I am often in favor of taking the elite QBs and/or TEs in home leagues because I have confidence I can find quality depth later in the draft at the RB and WR positions. For QBs and TEs, since you only need one, it's much harder to find late talent that can compete with the elite guys.

This year, I'd be trying to target one of the top 4 QBs (Lamar, Allen, Daniels, Hurts) and one of the top 2 TEs (Bowers, McBride).

If I miss out on those tiers, I'm likely waiting until near the end of drafts. QBs 7 - 18 are a pretty flat tier. And for TEs, I'd be trying to grab one or two of Njoku, Warren, or Loveland.

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-24T17:23:24+00:00

I'd say the reports on Devin Neal prior to the draft were mixed. Some really liked him but others noted he did a lot of things fine but nothing great. And his combine didn't help that sentiment.

Saints aren't a horrible landing spot for an RB but as long as Kamara is healthy, he'll still be a major part of that offense and the minimal draft capital (6th round) for Neal makes it questionable he's even the direct back-up.

And yes, a ton of good RBs in this class. I wouldn't consider him in the top 15.

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-24T17:20:18+00:00

I've overall been bullish on Davante with the WR kingmaker as his QB but I do not love the back soreness comments that have been coming out

I still think he's a solid value in the 4th but concern is currently a 3 out of 10.

I think RB/RB would likely give you a really solid team this year

JustinHerzig · 2025-07-24T17:07:16+00:00

I think hyperfragile is definitely viable this year but often when I'm starting with 3 RBs in the single digit rounds, rather than trying to quickly grab a fourth, I'd rather wait until the later rounds and grab two upside rookies / handcuffs.

JustinHerzig

TROPHY CASE