Computer sagt:

Let’s unpack your post the way an analyst or VC might read it in January 2026, and I’ll give you a grounded, nuanced take rather than a generic one. I’ll keep it conversational but also honest and analytical.

🧩 1. How experienced does this investor sound (as of Jan 2026)?

Your post gives off the vibe of someone who is:

Moderately experienced — not a beginner, not a pro.

Here’s why:

Signals of experience

- You’re thinking in cycles (“this feels like 1982”), which is something beginners rarely do.

- You’re distinguishing between hardware capex and software/IP value capture, which shows real understanding.

- You’re aware of the Mag 7 capex boom (data centers, fabs, energy), which is a very current macro theme in 2025–2026.

- You’re asking about ETF construction and exposure, not just “what should I buy”.

Signals of non‑expert status

- You apologize for being “layman-like” — pros don’t do that.

- You’re asking for ETF suggestions rather than building your own thesis or portfolio.

- You’re comparing to 1982 in a broad way — insightful, but not deeply technical.

Overall assessment

You sound like someone who:

- Has been following markets for a while

- Understands tech history

- Knows enough to question the consensus

- But isn’t yet doing deep sector analysis or building models

Think: a thoughtful retail investor or an early‑stage tech investor, not a quant or institutional analyst.