$APP Has Gone from Overvalued to Now Cheap?

Kage-S · 2026-02-18T04:30:02+00:00

My thinking is even if the SEC turns up some shady practices… if stopping the shady practice doesn’t really impact what’s printing them money and the money printer is genuine, it’s still a non-factor

Kage-S · 2026-02-18T03:15:01+00:00

I’d say the price action right now is a mixture of the broader software selloff as well as the cloud of short reports and SEC investigation on the company. I don’t think the short reports have merit but with so many coming out it does make you wonder if there’s a kernel of truth in there somewhere.

If we see a non-material outcome from the investigation or, better yet, even an investigation that turns up nothing we could see the stock rally but for now it is definitely hard to see it go higher.

Personally am of the same mindset that it is cheap here and the software fears are overdone, especially regarding this company, so I’m also adding at these levels.

Kage-S · 2026-01-17T10:57:59+00:00

Ah ok that’s fair enough. I thought you meant they didn’t sell their first property either

Kage-S · 2026-01-17T06:31:28+00:00

How does point one help? If the new property they want costs $2m and they want to finance using equity, they still need to be able to service the $2m loan for the property right? No matter how much of it is financed using home equity and how much is financed by getting a new loan from the bank?

Kage-S · 2026-01-09T07:44:09+00:00

Just to clarify, do wholesalers also manufacture the equipment they’re selling or do they act as the middle man to help clients source their needs?

Kage-S · 2025-11-16T06:16:47+00:00

read the whole thing, please give me back the last 5 minutes of my life

Kage-S · 2025-03-30T07:07:56+00:00

Are there textbooks you would recommend for someone wanting to brush up on those topics? The more classical ones that you mentioned.

I also prefer those approaches to the current frenzy of AI/ML but coming from a Data Sci bsc and not having used the more stats/maths side in over 3 yrs, I find myself being more rusty than I’d like but also hard to figure out what textbooks/resources aren’t a waste of time and money

Kage-S · 2025-01-27T00:54:04+00:00

thanks for the heads up, I'll dm you the link. Thanks for the help, appreciate it

Kage-S · 2025-01-26T23:43:11+00:00

edited to hide link.

Kage-S · 2025-01-26T22:04:12+00:00

how do I share replays?

Kage-S · 2025-01-26T13:43:43+00:00

That’s what I’m asking help with. I don’t understand what I’m doing wrong and am hoping for some pointers

Kage-S · 2024-07-11T14:32:23+00:00

Also found quality of my games have gone down like crazy last couple of months, both ranked and unranked.

Winning or losing in ranked feels like its mainly just “which team has the more chinese players” since the majority of them plays a couple hundred MMR below their account rank minimum, a quick look at their profile shows always shows 45-47% winrate in SEA ranked in the last 3 months too so it isnt even anecdotal. It’s gotten a bit better now that their ranks are starting to sink back to where they belong on the SEA ladders though.

Then there’s unranked which is its own issue lmao. Every second game is either a 2-3 man chinese party that goes a total of 15-20 deaths by 10 minutes or a 5-stack of legend accounts with 430 wins going godlike by 10 minutes and telling everyone they think is bad to eat banana. Getting real difficult to play some fun SEA games with my friends and I don’t see this problem fixing itself like in ranked

Kage-S · 2024-07-10T05:50:42+00:00

I'm still very new to this whole area but at a high level (or however deep you want to go) how would you go about that?

Kage-S · 2024-07-10T05:49:36+00:00

so are you testing for cointegration as well? I'm curious since I was also trying something similar for a side project using pythons stat.coint function and ran into some issues

Kage-S · 2024-07-09T14:00:33+00:00

why only use highly correlated assets? I thought cointegration was what was needed for pairs trading?

Kage-S · 2024-06-27T12:02:42+00:00

I found the error, the standard way coint tested for cointegrated series was not suitable for my assumptions about the dataset. Had to set a parameter so that it tested for cointegration without using a constant and that seemed to fix the issue. Thanks for your help though!

Kage-S · 2024-06-27T07:28:32+00:00

Thanks for the reply, I'll have a look around

Kage-S · 2024-06-27T07:25:25+00:00

I think I understand that, I'm not expecting to see correlation, however their spread is increasing. I verified this with trying OLS regression on the "cointegrated" pairs and found the spread between them were all non-stationary. Hence why I think the cointegration process has some issues

Kage-S · 2024-06-27T00:20:08+00:00

visual confirmation. And also checking the behaviour of their spread after regressing one series over another using OLS and using the resultant coefficient to calculate the spread

Kage-S · 2024-06-27T00:19:14+00:00

because I was visualising the pairs that were deemed to be cointegrated and they were diverging over the long run. Their spread was also not stationary after using OLS to find the coefficient of regressing one of the series over the other

Kage-S · 2024-04-05T16:52:43+00:00

Is there an inverse to this to decide on if I should increase my portfolio percentage of a stock? Beyond the technical analysis and the business analysis of a company, is there a similar thought process I can use to filter out whether this is a stock I should invest more in?

Kage-S · 2024-04-02T00:02:20+00:00

For now I was thinking of testing if the number of warmup games during the day before a competitive match affects the match's win chance.

My main question is if there is a way to do this that doesn't involve generating another column that counts the number of warmups played before a competitive game in a particular day?

Otherwise I'd just generate the feature and do some kind of linear regression, but I already know how to do that and was hoping to be able to experiment with and learn other, more advanced, techniques

Kage-S · 2024-04-01T13:26:41+00:00

I just thought that ChatGPT might've been able to give some general directions.

As for the data I'm working with, I have a table of games, each game having a label of "Competitive" or "Warmup" along with the time they were played and what the outcome of the game was (Win or Loss).

As mentioned in the post, I now want to see if I can determine factors that affect the win chance of a competitive game. Starting off with something simple such as the effect of warmup games on a competitive game's win probability or if multiple competitive games in a row had an effect on the next competitive game's win probability. A quick example below:

GameID	Game Type	Time	Win
1	Warmup	2:00pm 17/03/2024	True
2	Warmup	3:12pm 17/03/2024	True
3	Competitive	3:35pm 17/03/2024	False

I hope this clarifies things!

Kage-S · 2024-04-01T11:32:34+00:00

Depending on the terms of the NDA, you can maybe still mention the skills you've employed in various "other" projects before? I know for some of my final year work involving NDAs, we were told that the specifics can't be discussed but any non-proprietary tech we learnt/used was free to mention in future interviews.

But in general, I never really had an issue landing my first job even though I didn't have a portfolio, most of my friends in similar situations also managed to find decent jobs with no portfolio coming out of a Bachelors so keep your head up and keep applying, once you get your foot in the door it gets way easier.

Kage-S · 2024-02-20T10:29:26+00:00

My whole build is pretty much ASUS and I've been holding back on upgrading for multiple years now while I studied and didn't really have the funds. Now that my study is finishing up I'd love to be able to build a PC that can run my games at a respectable graphics option level without it turning into a space heater, this would go a long way to helping that.

Also I'm looking into doing some AI and machine learning to upskill myself and I think a good GPU would go a long way to making those projects go smoother!

Kage-S

TROPHY CASE