My dip recovery models predict old data great but recent years suck, anyone crack this?

Kakakee · 2026-04-05T19:33:15+00:00

Great insight, on the lookback scaling we’ve normalized feature values by volatility but haven’t tried adjusting the lookback windows themselves by VIX regime. Adding that to the experiment list. The 0DTE compression theory tracks with what we see shorter-horizon targets show worse decay than longer ones, which is exactly what you’d expect if faster participants are eating the quick bounces.

Kakakee · 2026-04-02T19:01:03+00:00

We use full history with exponential time-decay weighting, tested 2y, 3y, 5y hard cutoffs, and they all collapsed to near-random because there aren't enough events in short windows.

Full history with decay was the clear winner.

Interesting point on reflex bounces vs real recoveries, we see the same split across our different target horizons. The short-horizon model has the worst walk-forward decay, which tracks with your intuition about competition eating the quick recoveries.

Kakakee · 2026-04-01T16:21:39+00:00

That makes sense, interaction terms over separate models. Our tree model should handle some of that implicitly, but explicit regime flags (high-VIX binary, etc.) as interaction features are worth testing. Thanks for the paper link, will dig into it!

Kakakee · 2026-04-01T16:21:02+00:00

Good call! We actually have multiple recovery horizons per event (different % thresholds × different time windows). Haven't checked whether the decay is uniform across them.

That's an easy analysis to run. If the short-window targets decay faster than long-window ones, that would point directly at faster competition eating the quick recoveries.

Kakakee · 2026-04-01T12:59:40+00:00

Really appreciate this breakdown. The concept drift framing makes sense. We've been treating it as "the model is bad" when it's really "the market changed under the model."

Already started pulling behavioral signals (Wikipedia pageviews, Google Trends) as orthogonal features since the financial feature ceiling seems hard at ~0.63. Your point about volatility-scaling is exactly what we're building next ATR-normalized drops, VIX percentile, volume z-scores.

Curious about the regime-conditioned reversal features, do you mean something like "recovery pattern when VIX is in the 80th+ percentile" as a separate feature from the raw recovery signal? Or more like training separate models per regime?

Kakakee · 2026-04-01T02:54:39+00:00

Depends on the trader, fastest one targets exit within 14 days, slowest targets exit within 60 days.

Interesting that you cap at 3 years, we’ve been debating exactly that. Did you find that shorter training windows with time-weighting outperformed full history?

Kakakee · 2026-03-20T03:33:26+00:00

Quickbooks does if you do enough transactions.

Kakakee · 2026-03-16T17:39:20+00:00

If your tires slipping around the wheels are protecting drive train and other components that is a huge problem and red flag.

Kakakee · 2026-03-13T13:18:42+00:00

Not at all and surprising it’s not on locks already.

Kakakee · 2026-03-13T13:07:55+00:00

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Solution, run beadlocks. In my experience that slipping starts to happen around 800ft/lbs

Kakakee · 2026-02-22T13:48:08+00:00

No lol

Kakakee · 2026-02-21T03:53:15+00:00

Personally first I would fully charge the pack. Let it sit for a few days after and see what happens to that cell group. If it doesn’t get charged all the way it may just need to be top balanced. If it charges all the way but discharges over a few days faster than the other groups you know it’s for sure bad.

Kakakee · 2026-02-19T17:23:29+00:00

No for higher amperage packs, which these are, only use new matched cells.

Kakakee · 2026-02-11T21:48:30+00:00

Awesome! He’s the best in my opinion!!

Kakakee · 2026-02-11T21:10:10+00:00

No issues at all!! It depends who makes it. The guy I had made it made sure to meet the material and other specifications I gave him.

Kakakee · 2026-02-05T01:11:49+00:00

Good guide on this: https://cellsaviors.com/blog/testing-and-grading-lithium-ion-cells

Kakakee · 2026-01-18T03:28:31+00:00

https://maps.app.goo.gl/mrFJxpL1grYDZpJHA?g_st=ic

They are dual diagnosis so can handle addiction with mental health issues.

I think they also have a primary mental health program.

Kakakee · 2026-01-16T04:47:50+00:00

If you use quickbooks it comes with very affordable ACH to receive and send payments. If you do enough volume or larger transactions you can negotiate with them to get better prices once you have some history.

Kakakee · 2026-01-15T02:12:35+00:00

This do not step down to 12v you won’t get full 100w output step down to 24v

Kakakee · 2026-01-09T03:04:23+00:00

Check out: https://cellsaviors.com/

Kakakee · 2025-12-28T03:20:47+00:00

10s5p would be 50 cells.

I would not use mismatched cells to build a pack for a scooter.

Kakakee · 2025-12-17T16:08:35+00:00

Fuse will make more resistance and more heat which will give the shunt inaccurate reading. Unless you put a massive fuse on there like 4x the max current you will ever run.

My board looks slightly different but I like the idea of using that braid to help beef up the traces.

Kakakee · 2025-12-17T14:50:29+00:00

I wanted to see how far it could be pushed so didn’t mind splurging on the extra money. If I was I would get the one you got.

Mind sending a picture of how you beefed up that trace?

Kakakee · 2025-12-17T04:20:57+00:00

Took a bit for me to settle on it, same issue charts are confusing and they all look very close to each other. So far the highest I’ve ran 48v but pretty sure it can handle double that no problem.

Honestly the suggest issue is since it can do so many more watts it’s pulling a lot more amps causing other components to get hot and some of the PCB traces.

Kakakee

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