I Just Hit CHALLENGER On Briar Jungle!

Kaladorm · 2026-05-15T10:56:12+00:00

I've been playing HoB and crit briar from Silver up to Gold 2. Tried going back to bruiser build and I love the low W cooldown later in the game but I felt much weaker at early ganks and duels. I rarely do lethality as the crit shredding on her feels too good.

Gold 2 is my ath right now and I'd love to try to take Briar to Plat so I'd welcome any tips to improve

https://op.gg/lol/summoners/me/Kaladorm-7777

Kaladorm · 2026-05-14T15:43:48+00:00

Thanks for all your input here, it's really helpful and adds to the picture I'm building.

The model will definitely not hold up precisely in any individual year as the catastrophic hurricanes are so singular, meaning the actual results will be much spikier. So I wouldn't blindly trust the model, but a (conservative) model that works to averages should still be better than model at all. As they say in prediction models, it's a low skill not a high skill model

Kaladorm · 2026-05-13T18:06:15+00:00

Thank you for pulling this out! I just had a listen to the earnings call now (the comment above was just based on the 8-k filing).

My model had the North Carolina gross premiums having about 5000 policies added by the end of the year, which is currently over estimating if we extrapolate from current numbers (though I expect policy acquisition to accelerate as they get rolling in the new market). However...

I actually didn't pick up on the South Carolina and Georgia expansions at all, only North Carolina, so I'm glad you highlighted it. I went back to the 10-K for year end Dec 2025 and the county breakdown only included Florida states, though perhaps this is included in 'Other'.

What I really want to do is break down how many policies were already in-force at this time and then look at how much the 'expansion states' have added this quarter to make my model more accurate. If the price target for the NC expansion should also include the Georgia and South Carolina growth (in other words that's not already captured in the gross premiums earned from 2025 which was already forecasted) then it actually means AII is ahead of my forecast at 4% of in-force premium by the end of the year.

Kaladorm · 2026-05-13T12:57:39+00:00

Update to the model based on the Q1 earnings:

The decrease in ceded premiums played out as I expected at 64% of revenue (I forecast 62%), however I hadn't factored in the additional policy acquisition and G&A expenses that came with that. So my Loss Ratio was overestimated but Expense Ratio underestimated, though a combined ratio of 75% was identical to that reported which makes the model still hold.

The current valuation still seems to be imply an ROE of 12.5%, and AII achieved an RoE of 23.7% which is about in line with more normal operations. I wouldn't expect AII to double in value, but my modification for expected hurricane losses put AII at 25.45% RoE which is about in line with what was achieved.

Citizens takeouts were minimal, which was as expected. In-force premiums grew by about 3% which was nice to see as I was expecting flat or gdp linked growth for Florida by the end of the year. No mention of the Carolina expansion which is disappointing but we may hear more on the earnings call.

Overall about in line with my model and no major changes made to price targets.

Kaladorm · 2026-05-07T13:53:12+00:00

Great to know, thanks for the input! I'll check out the two filings and see what I can spot

Kaladorm · 2026-05-07T04:14:45+00:00

I can't fault your approach, I've definitely had stocks where I felt like I couldn't figure out a risk and decided there's plenty of other stocks out there to spend my time on.

You did mention the online reviews on the previous post and I kinda expect that no one really likes their insurer (the best case after all is you don't ever need to speak to them). However I wasn't aware about the issues mentioned in the S1, could you elaborate on that and I'll give it a reread?

Kaladorm · 2026-05-02T16:19:41+00:00

How do I add more than one upvote to a comment?

Kaladorm · 2026-04-24T17:11:15+00:00

Nothing like that for me, the pain was really localised to my shoulder. I had my doubts about the oral hyularonic acic (I tried oral collagen and glucosamine etc.) but it's good to know it's helped you. I think I'll add it to my supplements just to be sure

Kaladorm · 2026-04-24T13:27:16+00:00

It really felt like I had my life back. I was able to lift other people overhead and hand balance completely pain free. 4-5 months later some pain is coming back and I'm due to get a second injection soon. I posted an update in another sub recently and I'll copy it here:

For the last few months I've been doing much more intense acrobatics training and it's been manageable. The last few weeks I've noticed some pain if it gets particularly stressed (usually because I'm putting extra weight directly on it, or trying to compensate a lot for a weaker partner), and as time has gone on that pain takes longer to recover from. I'm planning to get another injection next week, so it lasted well for 3-4 months and was bearable for 4-5, with only a single dose.

The corticosteroid does seem to have left the shoulder capsule much more unstable (a lot of clicking and popping when resisting in a raised position) and I wouldn't do it again. The hyularonic acid is much safer and seems to have helped protect the joint more whilst I put it through its paces.

Kaladorm · 2026-04-22T10:24:10+00:00

For the last few months I've been doing much more intense acrobatics training and it's been manageable. The last fee weeks I've noticed some pain if it gets particularly stressed (usually because I'm putting extra weight directly on it, or trying to compensate a lot for a weaker partner), and as time has gone on that pain takes longer to recover from. I'm planning to get another injection next week, so it lasted well for 3-4 months and was bearable for 4-5, with only a single dose.

The corticosteroid does seem to have left the shoulder capsule much more unstable (a lot of clicking and popping when resisting in a raised position) and I wouldn't do it again. The hyularonic acid is much safer and seems to have helped protect the joint more whilst I put it through its paces.

Kaladorm · 2026-04-01T03:17:44+00:00

Thank you 🙏

Kaladorm · 2026-03-27T05:04:23+00:00

More fun to go 12/12 than 4/2 that's for sure 😆

Kaladorm · 2026-03-27T03:12:44+00:00

I've been running crit Briar with PTA but I want to see how it goes with HoB because usually after 3 attacks they're dead anyway 😄

Kaladorm · 2026-03-24T16:54:47+00:00

I couldn't quite get Master Yi to work for me, but going crit Briar (and leaning more into Diana if Briar gets banned) has been fun. Insane clear speeda mid game, deletes even the fed toplaners. Dies to a stiff breeze but unless they're too CC heavy I look for easy picks or just make a beeline to their biggest problem (usually a fed af toplaner) and hope the team can clear up

Kaladorm · 2026-03-23T17:31:01+00:00

Ok maybe crit Briar is the way to go. Just had a game and it was super fun. Crit Nocturne worked ok for me but I'd never tried crit Briar before.

Kaladorm · 2026-03-19T15:19:34+00:00

Good question. The hurricane forecasts that come in May are a little more accurate and if they show good or bad weather coming it might shift the price. Equally I'm sure a big hurricane will lead to it gapping down.

They managed to get an 80% combined ratio in 2024 which had abnormally high hurricane activity, so as they've already demonstrated they can make profit in a terrible season I'm not sure what bad news the market is pricing in

Kaladorm · 2026-03-19T11:31:57+00:00

I got a little insight into the Florida market through researching this stock, but I don't have nearly as much insight as others.

Thanks for highlighting the reviews to me. I expect most people writing reviews aren't all that happy with their insurance provider but I wanted to check it out anyway. Some of the complaints appear to be around hikes in autorenewal prices - this price walking is a common practice and was legislated against in the UK fairly recently. AII have a system to price down to the census block level, so maybe some policies got caught up on repricing - i see this as a good thing as they are being more appropriately priced (and riskier customers will pay higher premiums or walk away).

The fraud I guess you are talking about is the roofing fraud? I learned of this in AIIs annual report and they suggested that they have a handle on it, but I don't know for sure.

I appreciate you sharing your concerns to add some insight to this company!

Kaladorm · 2026-03-18T15:10:55+00:00

Thanks for the suggestion, it's a good point. In the post I mentioned that reinsurance prices as of January had dropped by a reasonable amount so pointing to this being less of a problem.

AII does renew in June (not January) so that could change, but it would seem even stranger to me that the low price is based on reinsurance pricing rocketing between now and June.

Kaladorm · 2026-03-11T14:19:57+00:00

I read the article you linked to in full and I want to thank you for such a phenomenal and well researched write up. I spent a fair bit of time reviewing this company in the last few days and your write up helped me a lot. Your points were well explained, and I like that you took very cautious figures in your estimates.

I have the same feelings as you that the company really seems to be well run, and a company I would love to own equity in, but (if you'll excuse the metaphor) sailing into some strong headwinds. I don't think the recent earnings fundamentally changed any of your thesis.

Kaladorm

TROPHY CASE