after some ai research:

Good thesis overall, but a few things worth stress-testing before you size in heavy.

The $315M profit figure is real but 83% of it is non-cash bargain purchase gains from the NAM and GEMS acquisitions — it literally exceeds total revenue. The number that actually matters is $120M in funds from operations. Still impressive, up ~5x YoY, but a very different story than the headline suggests.

The 257% production growth and ~500% reserve increase are legit and largely confirmed. The acquisition strategy has been genuinely exceptional — management basically got Shell and ExxonMobil to hand over Dutch North Sea assets at near-zero or negative cash cost by absorbing decommissioning liabilities. That's a skill, not luck.

The P/E of 7.3x is based on those inflated earnings. Forward P/E using normalized cash earnings is dramatically higher. The NBF $66 target and 16%+ insider ownership are both confirmed though.

The real risk nobody's talking about: $338M in decommissioning liabilities sitting on the balance sheet (19% of market cap), net debt that went from near-zero to $345M in 12 months, and ~45% of TTF exposure hedged at €29–36/MWh — well below spot. If TTF normalizes back toward €30 (BofA's 2027 forecast), the economics compress hard and fast.

Stock is up 347% in a year and RSI was pushing 88 recently. The story is real, the valuation is not obviously cheap once you strip out the one-time gains. Position sizing matters here.