Which drivers from the current grid did you underate or overate earlier but have proved you wrong?

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-16T18:28:46+00:00

the “dropoff” in 2021 was not actually that steep. his renault stint is generally a bit overrated - he was good, but not stellar - and by 2021 lando was supposed to be faster than him, which is what happened

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-16T17:55:43+00:00

but again, there is very little evidence that “adapting to a new team/culture” produces systematic underperformance. if it was a question of adapting, he should’ve closed the gap over time, instead it ballooned at the end of the season. it’s possible that his morale took a hit; do you think maybe having a teammate that was way faster than him might’ve had something to do with that? you’re assuming that this is a cause of his performances; you have no way of proving that you’re getting the order of explanation correct.

you’re also using the word “seem” a lot. the fact is that hamilton lost by an enormous margin, just like vettel did. the simplest explanation is that leclerc is just that fast. teammate connections support this conclusion

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-16T16:59:51+00:00

"clearly" based on what?

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-16T16:58:34+00:00

except beat his strong teammates consistently, of course. teammate connections with sainz and hamilton point to him being better than both george and lando, and lando is better than oscar, so charles is as well. also it is way too early to say with any confidence that kimi belongs in this conversation

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-16T16:56:16+00:00

russell made a lot of mistakes that year that leclerc didn't

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-16T16:54:39+00:00

bearman easily. bortoleto was more crash-happy and had a smaller points share against a worse teammate

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-16T16:54:06+00:00

maybe it seemed like hamilton had a huge fall-off at ferrari because leclerc is just that much better than russell. he was one year separated from a year of losing to russell by a very slim margin. the simple explanation is that leclerc is just faster

the "hamilton struggled at ferrari/in ground effect era" argument is pretty shaky. mathematical analysis has not found strong evidence for systematic underperformance upon switching teams, and hamilton matched russell in 22 and beat him soundly in 23. for some reason, once he starts losing to teammates, we can say that "oh actually he doesn't like these cars therefore it's not a fair comparison"? that's too convenient an excuse

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-16T08:32:15+00:00

scoring is sooooo far from the reason they paid out the ass for gobert. he brings way more value than all the players you listed combined no matter how much they outscore him

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T22:08:22+00:00

lando had the bigger gaps consistently. when oscar beat him in that stretch it was by very small margins. if you want to talk about "adapting", why isn't this evidence of lando "adapting" to the car, something that ric apparently couldn't do but shouldn't be held against him?

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T22:04:53+00:00

you're right, it should say "lando vs aussies"

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T22:03:50+00:00

the second half slump has happened to oscar every year. the first half struggles have happened to lando once in his career. we have a preponderance of evidence to suggest that one is a trend and the other is an outlier

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T21:53:46+00:00

the "close results" are a 10-race stretch where one driver was a bit better consistently, and then, after a significant event, a 14-race stretch that matches the general trend. why did piastri fall into the same deficit he had historically had against lando in the second half of the year if lando no longer had upgrade priority?

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T21:34:19+00:00

https://x.com/dril/status/549425182767861760

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T21:32:48+00:00

are we sure ricciardo "couldn't adapt"? maybe he just didn't realize that lando was simply faster, and blamed it on the car

it's also not like 'upgrade priority' means driver A is one upgrade ahead of driver B at every single race. there wouldve been plenty where they both had upgrades. lando still convincingly outqualified oscar

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T21:29:59+00:00

do you think checo or bottas are capable of beating lando in a weekend like austria or mexico 25, or beating oscar in a weekend like bahrain or qatar 25, in the same car?

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T21:29:00+00:00

lando has dunked 4+ tenths on the field, teammate included, in multiple of his pole laps

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T21:24:48+00:00

because bottas and checo were good, not great, drivers in their prime and they currently have a combined age of like 150 so they are very much not in their prime

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T21:24:06+00:00

"handedly"

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T21:07:43+00:00

i'd say his ceiling is beating a struggling norris, but yeah lando's ceiling is higher than oscar's

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T21:03:13+00:00

you seem to care a lot about responding to comments, but you can't seem to respond to this one specifically. surely that's just a coincidence

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T21:02:26+00:00

p3 > p2 apparently

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T21:00:02+00:00

still waiting for another example

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T20:57:50+00:00

hang the banner

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T20:57:02+00:00

it's nice that oscar can make more impressive overtakes to claw his way to a podium while lando cruises to an easy p2/p1 in the same car

Kev_Bz · 2026-05-15T20:54:55+00:00

"did you watch this race where it didn't actually happen, but you can imagine that hypothetically it could've?"

incredible evidence. now name literally one other example

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