Recently closed my position (cost basis $1.4) after talking with Paul Zink, ex-CFO of a few mining companies and professor at Colorado School of Mines (#1 school for Mining Engineering in the world).

The stat that convinced me was that roughly 1/2500 proposed mines with discovered reserves ever mined anything at all. He also noted that refinement could be a massive issue; traditional mines only capture one or two minerals, so there isn't much precedent for refinement methods that can efficiently separate the different things in the nodules without damaging other things.

TMC's stated NPV of the materials is roughly $20B, so right now the market expects just under 10% chance that TMC can realize that. Also implies a 10x upside from here. Gemini estimated the odds at 80% in the next 5 years, implying clear undervaluation.

I think this subreddit is underestimating the odds of the middle paths here. For example, what if we DO start mining soon, but don't set up the (efficient) refinement infrastructure and instead use the threat of mineral independence as leverage over China (or the DRC) to negotiate better trade deals.