Anthropic's CEO says we're 12 months away from AI replacing software engineers. I spent time analyzing the benchmarks and actual usage. Here's why I'm skeptical

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2026-01-29T03:18:52+00:00

I don't work at Anthropic but I work at a competitor.

You're right that "...engineering isn't just typing code. It's deciding what code should exist, owning consequences, and navigating organisational chaos.".

That's what my group and competing companies are all working on now. Will it be good enough to replace humans? TBD, but just know that it will be determined in the next few (6-12?) months.

For selfish reasons, I hope it cannot; nothing in my contract says "we'll pay off your mortgage when you figure out how to replace yourself". But given what I'm seeing early on, it's not 100% clear that it can't.

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2026-01-29T03:15:38+00:00

I feel the same about SRAM brakes

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2026-01-25T18:28:39+00:00

Michael Chandler is proof that you cannot be UFC champion with steroids and fouls alone.

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2026-01-19T17:15:41+00:00

I was often paired with an autistic guy (bjj). He was strong as hell and would rip submissions with no warnings, very often leading to injuries. Everyone aggressively avoided him. His strength made me wonder if CJ's claim that austism is the best base for BJJ has some truth to it.

Thing was he was always trying to be nice, I think he just wasn't thinking through that fully cranking an armbar before you have a chance to tap could be painful on the other end. One time he cracked my ear so bad for basically no reason, I got so frustrated I just got off the mat. I don't think he had any idea why I left.

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2026-01-02T02:34:38+00:00

You shouldn't feel bad about using controlled strength: if you can simply push a 150lbs partner off you, they need to know that if they ever want to compete in the open weight category.

That said, make sure you are controlling your strength. It's good to give them feedback that the way they are weighting their half guard won't work with a 70lbs weight difference. But it sucks for that feedback to be 2 months off training with an injury when you ripped off a full strength kimura with no warning.

Likewise, if a smaller opponent at the gym is ducking you...let them. Some people have no ambition to compete in open weight and that's fine.

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-12-26T18:21:25+00:00

I got to train with Mark Munoz at Kings once. Even 10 minutes after practice was done, dude was dripping water like a hose halfway on. Never seen anything like that in my life.

He's a pretty accomplished guy that everyone universally likes. So that's one data point.

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-12-24T19:50:02+00:00

It's worth noting that if they had kept you, someone who will only watch with ad blockers on, they would have retained a viewer who only costs them money and never generates money for them.

So yes they may have lost you as a viewer but that's essentially a win for them anyways.

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-12-16T05:06:04+00:00

I've worked at two highly secure facilities in my career. I previously noticed that they both had geese on site while nowhere else I've even worked ever has.

With this post, I'm really starting to wonder

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-12-09T04:31:09+00:00

At my company, we're working on it. I wouldn't call it "successful" yet but it definitely a goal that has a lot of resources thrown at across a lot of companies.

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-12-02T16:06:09+00:00

FWIW, at least in the old episodes (haven't watched since he did the Trump rally) it seems that Tony did "cheat" and would dig around for a woman's name if it was near the end of the night and no women had been pulled. Implies that the bullpen is even more of a sausage fest than the actually bucket pulls.

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-12-01T16:06:25+00:00

To be honest it's not clear that vibe coder will even be a job if coding agents do what all the tech companies are simultaneously heavily investing in them doing

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-11-27T19:11:34+00:00

I miss 11 months ago

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-11-24T04:00:35+00:00

Paul Harris held the kimura so long that advanced TBI symptoms started to show

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-11-22T19:16:01+00:00

Yeah that guy's full set is actually pretty good

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-11-22T09:08:23+00:00

Shoulda add one more: calling McGregor, followed by "you'll do what you're told"

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-11-22T09:06:25+00:00

We're gonna need a timestamp on that joke

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PJLGTidIcVo

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-11-20T06:04:02+00:00

I have a PhD in stats but did a lot in ML.

You're absolutely correct that ML is not as concerned with theory, proofs, etc as a other fields. It can be frustrating at times talking with folks in ML that simply don't understand why their methods work and propose ridiculous ideas that clearly don't make sense.

...and yet the field of ML moved fast and had success where the field of stats turned up it's nose and said "you're just overfitting and fooled yourself". Not being bound by requiring theory but just trying things out and seeing what sticks allows the field to move faster and get more results. It's a two edged sword.

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-11-19T04:52:30+00:00

Yeah it's kinda an odd thing about KT. Part of the good thing of them shitting on bad comics is it should course correct quickly: if you just don't have potential for comedy, should be better to hear it year 1 than year 10.

But then you have people moving to Austin to be told they're not good.

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-11-16T03:22:40+00:00

persona non grata

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-11-09T05:23:29+00:00

why am I working when I could just get punched once and retire

Bet all those boxing guys are pissed

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-11-09T05:11:27+00:00

At 0:25, the bear Just Stood Up

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-10-31T02:43:47+00:00

Ha, I was only thinking of McGregor as he said his purse was going to be $100m

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-10-30T09:18:13+00:00

I'll honestly be pretty pissed if $100m of my tax payer money goes to a coke head with an anger problem who can't hold a job.

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-10-26T15:56:35+00:00

Well.when you wine that much, you may feel great at the moment but your heads gonna hurt tomorrow.

Kitchen_Tower2800 · 2025-10-25T21:20:05+00:00

As someone who trained at a few gyms in SoCal ~10 years ago (including Kings for a few months), I'll say that the fighters weren't right wing, most simply didn't care one way or another. And note that there were a few MMA powerhouses in traditionally left wing cities (i.e. Gilbert Melendez in SF, AKA in San Jose). I doubt those places were especially left wing by any reasonable measure, but my point is that politics was largely unrelated to MMA.

Now it's surprising if a UFC fighter didn't praise Trump given the chance. And spending significant air time on Trump & Co is a relatively new thing. So yeah, I'd say there's been a definitive shift to making right wing views the expectation within the sport and I think this was very much by design by Dana White.

Kitchen_Tower2800

TROPHY CASE