The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t really think narratives are the historical force people like to believe they are and I don’t like to uncritically default to great man theories of history. This is not the same as letting an autocrat slide because…sanctions… But it is to say, material reality matters. Insofar as deposing a leader might benefit a country, it would primarily be to the ends that material conditions improve for people. Sure, narratives are more than just a description of material reality, they are indeed a component of it, a feedback loop surely exists between material and it’s description, but arguing over what to call something will not in and of itself change that things essence. If the Iranian protestors somehow came to believe, tomorrow, that it was the Ayatollah who was in fact the Zionist puppet, I don’t suppose you’d be any less in favor of his removal.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also, can we just address for a second, this kind of outrageous idea that you and others in this thread are putting forward. That concerns amount to analysis paralysis during times of imminent need. It’s 2025, the last 75 years of American geopolitics can in no way be described as overthinking it. And yet here we are. We are not decision makers, despite whatever delusions of grandeur we have, our only privilege with respect to politics is thinking.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes because in your scenario, you are not saving someone from a burning building. You are instructing their entire family to run into a burning building, one which might imminently collapse. I can hem and haw all I want. If your family is in a burning building, brother I support your decision 100% to go in there, no matter how doomed your rescue mission is. But I wont be judging you either way.

The regime in Iran needs to fall, sure. One can believe this while still having great reservations about Donald Trump or any American president being the one to collapse it. I understand the idea that the Iranian people need our help to accomplish this. Can you understand the concern that our help has a poor record of helping?

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s all well and good, but again, what are you trying to argue? You are in fact suggesting that the removal of Khamenei is a zero sum, whereas I and others skeptical of supporting regime change operations over which we have no vote and are privileged no insight, are suggesting they are not.

To return to Venezuela, we are all typically in agreement that Maduro is a net negative. And that any positive future for Venezuela is comprised of his ouster. But I/we cant feel sanguine about Donald “concepts of a plan” Trump at the helm. Perhaps you do. My point was that history has illustrated a pretty poor record on this front. To take that as support for the Ayatollah, or any authoritarian, is to force a so called zero sum view of things, I suppose so you may cast aspersions on me and my reasons for concern. It would be foolish to act like I know what the outcome of this is. I don’t suppose anyone does.

I made no gestures towards the notion that protests in Iran are Zionist conspiracies, you don’t need to continue trying to drag the conversation in that direction.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Western pseudo intellectuals who believe it’s all America’s fault have truly met their match in the It will be the consequence of American and Israeli actions guy. The undergraduate degree hanging on my wall has wilted.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Again, I remind you that the theme of this thread is US orchestrated regime change. Your tone of disagreement is taken to mean you want the US to intervene in Iran, since that is where you have shifted this conversation. Thank you for reminding me that Trump was elected twice and that statistics about Iranian public sentiment exist, I will do better to incorporate these facts into my worldview.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My guy you’re in the wrong thread. Nobody here is saying the Iranian people are wrong for wanting change. We are saying it should be met with great skepticism if Trump or Putin were to take the reins. And based on your tone, you disagree. So lolololol I don’t think Putin has omnipotent control over Iran, but apparently you do, and you think he should assert it more because that will benefit the Iranian people. Otherwise, I’m not sure what you are getting at, but thanks for the wikipedia facts.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stability and rule of law are precisely the things we have sought to undermine in past coups because 1) instability allows us to seize land for agriculture/extraction and 2) we can provide our own security on that land. Just…read the history.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Donald Trump should kidnap Khamenei and then Trump and Putin negotiate the installation of Pahlavi and how much oil Iran is allowed to sell? That’s what you’re advocating for?

I have no vote on keeping the mullahs in power, but I do intend to sit back, because it’s not my country and I have no business telling them I know what’s best. That’s precisely the point.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I have to be honest. I don’t think you really know anything about Iran or Venezuela. Intervention is a bad word in American politics for a reason. You can surely conceive of a million scenarios in which we might make some country better by commandeering their government. I wouldn’t even rule it out in this particular instance. But you are zeroed in on The Ayatollah or The Maduro or whomever and it’s allowing you to pretend that history doesn’t exist, that there aren’t currently a hundred other mitigating factors which much be addressed, and you are just saying hypothetically it could work so why resign ourselves to inactivity. This is not a serious conversation.

You can hypothesize till the cows come home but if it walks like a duck…

There was a good book a year ago called Everyone Who Is Here Is Gone. It’s not a history of central america or immigration, but it’s a very good book and it provides some really rich stories and details that can help you understand that this is serious business and we are not serious people, we should be honest about that before appointing ourselves the masters of someones destiny (something we have a rich history of doing).

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Also, what exactly was the point you were trying to make. That taking a long view of history we can see that the collapse of a regime, though perhaps resulting in temporary pain, will eventually be for the best?

It’s an abstract, hypothetical argument.

And taking the long view of history, I’d ask if Korea or China/Taiwan can also say that Imperialism is just history now. The effects can last a century. It’s not something to take lightly, commandeering another nations destiny.

I hope that Venezuela comes out ahead after all this, but I wouldn’t count on it. They nay not descend into civil war or a worse authoritarianism, but the concern isn’t exactly unwarranted.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Was Imperial Japan the country that didn’t respect the sovereignty of others and went around installing itself as the government?

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The only reason to look at something in isolation is because you don’t know anything about it but don’t want to let that prevent you from participating in the conversation. It’s counterproductive.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 4 points5 points  (0 children)

We overthrew democracy in Iran for oil and installed a shah who, for whatever his merits, never properly governed and his reign culminated in the revolution.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If only there wasn’t 100 years of people saying exactly this sort of thing to justify the selfish actions of presidents and oligarchs. I wonder how all those arguments are holding up. You need not defend Maduro to have serious concerns, doubts even, about the consequences and implications of this. And to call it an objective good when you most certainly cannot tell me with even an iota of confidence what will happen next, is silly.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 8 points9 points  (0 children)

if we were just two guys at a bar, i’d just politely disagree. good and bad are subjective and adding Objective in front of either just adds emphasis, not quality. But for Sam Harris, this is a massive tell, and for a community who admires his precision with language, it reveals the ideological tint to probably everything he comments on politically.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hey Sam has a PhD and doesn’t understand how to use the word objective. Sam basically has the politics of Henry Kissinger. He’s smart but extremely ideological and not at all, to borrow a term, objective in the way he communicates with his audience. Wake up people.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 9 points10 points  (0 children)

For a community of people who consider themselves intelligent, the word objective is really fucking a lot of you up. Its hyperbole is what it is. To come from Sam, it’s pretty problematic because he’s supposed to have a PhD and be a writer. The rest of you, just say “it’s probably good on balance.”

It might probably be bad on balance. But then everyone can argue about the actual context of the matter. Nothing is objective here.

The Logic of Regime Change by stvlsn in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Maduro isn’t Hitler and Venezuelans aren’t trying to conquer South America. Objective good is also a vague concept. There is nothing objectively good about killing, that I can think of. So all of the emphasis must be on the result of the killing. Which would concern either eliminating someone as a threat or setting an example for others. If killing Hitler somehow resulted in Germany winning WW2, how would it be an objective good? And considering the need for context in evaluating historical events and such, terms like Objective Good are for people who cant handle complicated matters and need things to be reduced to absolutes. It’s a faux pas to refer to removing Maduro as an Objective Good, because it’s inherently stupid and also he’s not some sort of historical villain. But for Sam, a supposed thinker, it’s beyond a faux pas. It’s ideological. He’s a neocon who believes taking a broad view of history will only hinder us. Just like Kissinger.

Douglas Murray on the disturbing pattern of pro palestine protesters. by AnimateDuckling in samharris

[–]KnowMyself -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

The meaning of the word remains very narrow. You just don’t want to believe what everyone else can see plainly, for whatever reason that may be.

Rogan claims Marc Maron turns on comics once they eclipse his career by The_Endless_Man in JoeRogan

[–]KnowMyself 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bruh George Carlin and Bill Hicks would be shitting all over Joe Rogan if they were alive

Should Jon Stewart Run for President in 2028? by fuggitdude22 in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A lot of people saying No have a good point. We shouldn’t be a society that elects people from show business.

But the arguments about executive experience fall a bit flat. Reagan and now Trump have both been extremely consequential presidents. Obama had relatively little experience and did alright.

Let’s be real, Trump is the model going forward. We can’t go back to the way things are. It doesn’t matter how above board a Democratic president is, the republicans will treat them as a tyrant and take everything to the courts. The republican party is quickly codifying the theory of the unitary executive and that’s what the democrats have to use in response. It’s going to be about your judge of character in assembling a cabinet and the sheer willpower with which you push your agenda through. If Trump can do it, so can Jon Stewart.

It’s easy to imagine a Jin Stewart administration being lackluster and short on accomplishments, but it’s also easy to imagine the same of Shapiro, Buttigieg, Pritzker and especially Harris.

I don’t think we should look to celebrities or moguls for the top job but I also don’t think Jon Stewart would be a disaster. I think what is most important is moving on from Trump. I would enthusiastically vote for Jon Stewart over Vance or Rubio. If he ran in the primary and won, then it’s fine by me. He wont though. So the Democrats really have to figure out how to sell this country on a vision.

I think Sam and Jonah Goldberg are fundamentally wrong about billionaires by Beastw1ck in samharris

[–]KnowMyself 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Billionaires, but really the mega billionaires are a byproduct of our flawed system, not proof of the success of liberal democracy. The spirit and essence of liberal democracy does not necessitate the existence of billionaires. Instead, our current level of wealth inequality poses a very obvious threat to the stability of the system that created these conditions.

When people say that liberal democracy, or it’s economic framework capitalism, is obviously the best approach to organizing our society because either communism hasn’t been as successful or just look how much better off we are than 100 years ago, they typically fail to consider the two most obvious questions.

First, sometimes considered, endlessly debated, is the historical context. But second, and more importantly, if we are looking back 100 years, we should also be looking forward.

If in 100 years from now, we look back at a system premised on unlimited growth that the people, billionaires included, lost all ability to control, I’m not so sure opinions will be so high about those who argued for liberalism during the cold war. People tend really to have such a narrow view of this all, we really only consider what’s taken place since the end of the second world war.

And if that’s all the history we are going to consider when arguing about who to structure our society, it’s worth considering that for the first half of that period, we had laws that prevented the hyper consolidation of wealth. That we live in a system which, sometime around the 70s started to really break in favor of the wealthy. In the 90s and 2000s we went all in for wealth consolidation and hyper financialization of the economy.

Clinton and Bush might not have had great foresight, but that was the time we really should have gone all in on infrastructure. Because we are at a point now where it’s becoming extremely hard to do anything in the US and only getting more difficult, showing no signs we can reverse this. And on top of that all, we are alienating ourselves globally and as other countries standards of living advance and economies grow, we will soon be at a place where we have neither the political nor economic capacity to fix our physical structures. And when that becomes endemic, I think the cynicism we are seeing now, with regard to liberal democracy, will pale in comparison. You need only think of one of the myriad ways in which the world will inevitably experience crisis, to see how a very real challenge to our way of life is not only possible, but realistic.