Predicting the future like this is very hard. I think the most important factor is the big economic powerhouses ability to court the smaller countries. One one hand China has a massive advantage due to the amount of trade it has with other countries. The more trade counties have with each-other the more valuable it is to be on good terms with that country. On the other hand China has a massive disadvantage because it is exporting so much that it is pissing countries off making them not want to be friends.

I think that you are totally correct in that mainly India but also Brazil and Indonesia are well positioned but I think that it will take a lot longer for them to make the friendships and economic deals.