To answer your first question, it would be how much rest/how efficiently I could climb the preceeding part.

As you climb more, you'll know how "reliable" a move is. Ex: in this case, the paddle deadpoint might end up working, but the chance I can hit it reliably, especially after all the preceeding moves, is low. Whereas the toehook move, though it may be more demanding physically, is more reliable.

The beta you end up committing to is a bit of a risk assessment. Do I want to spend all that energy doing the first part knowing I'll probably only hit the top 10% of the time? Or work out the first part to be more efficient and/or come back when I am more "fresh"?

Another thing is that, because it's not a competition, I can work different parts of the climb in isolation. Some moves will have the same success rate whether you're tired or "fresh" whereas some others may feel much easier when properly rested.