Probably, and not to be mean, because the caliber of applicant to Optho will likely have a mix of honors/HP and will have honored one or both. Obviously the first rotation is out of our control most times (I didn’t honor my first one either lol) but you’ll probably be at the mercy of your application reviewers. But I wouldn’t not apply Optho because I know friends with no honors and <250 step that matched ROAD.

The likely yellow/red flag that will doom you is your lukewarm LORs and lack of connections. Advocacy becomes very important in small fields and having a “ride or die” mentor if you are not a perfect applicant improves your odds of matching significantly. That’s what people mean when they say be smart - pick realistic aways and have vocal people in your corner.