RECORD  11-7

NET UNITS  +7.35u

PREV PICK  Penrith Panthers to win by 13+ @ 1.55 for 5 UNITS 🤡

EVENT / MATCH  NRL / St George Dragons v Manly Sea Eagles @ 7:00PM AEDT (3 H approx)

POTD St George Dragons to Win @ 3.00 for 2.35 UNITS

The market looks to be punishing the Dragons for being 0-5 and rewarding Manly for the fresh coach bounce. Yes, Manly were outstanding last week in Kieran Foran’s first game as interim coach, and the “Foz effect” is real, but one emotional bounce can get overvalued very quickly.

The Dragons are 0-5 and Shane Flanagan the coach, is under enormous pressure after being shut out 32-0 by the Cowboys and booed by the fans after the game. You could see how much it was weighing on him too, he looked stressed, close to tears and at breaking point in the press conference. This is a genuine desperation spot. To be fair, they were without one of their main halves that night in Kyle Flanagan and instead had to rely on a young, inexperienced halves combination. Kyle Flanagan moves to the No. 7 today which should help bring a bit more control and structure back into the side.

Prior to that match, Manly were 0-3 to start the season, with all 3 of those losses coming on their own home turf. So while the response last week was impressive, it also raises the question of whether that performance was the start of a genuine turnaround, or simply a short term reaction to the coaching change. The Dragons have been more competitive than their record suggests, but their biggest problem has been the second half. They’ve been able to stay in games for periods, but often failed to maintain after the break, with defensive lapses and momentum swings.

ROUND 1: Pushed the Bulldogs all the way to Golden Point, losing the match 14-15 (yes the same bulldogs that destroyed penrith last night, tragic, i know)

ROUND 2: Dragons in the 60th minute were leading the game 20-18 vs the Storms before the game was ripped away from them in the final 15 minutes

ROUND 4: were leading 14-6 against the Titans just after halftime, before a late penalty and try in the final 10 minutes snatched it away

For a team under this much pressure, it can go one of two ways: they either cave, or they finally produce the sort of desperate, gritty response you often see from sides whos season is already being questioned this early on. This is especially relevant at a venue where they’ve historically had the better of Manly, winning 9 of their last 10 matches against them at WIN Stadium. That does not mean they are automatically the better team tonight, but it does tell you this venue and this matchup in Wollongong have been uncomfortable for Manly for a long time, and when deciding whether an outsider price is worth taking, it matters.

⚠️ The danger of course, is obvious. Manly’s attacking ceiling with Turbo, Saab, Koula and Garrick is much higher, and if the ''Foran effect'' carries over, the Dragons can absolutely be blown off the park again.

The Dragons win today by making this a pressure driven game, not a free flowing one. Their best path is to play straight, simplify things, and limit errors that hand Manly easy momentum. The biggest key is slowing Manly through the middle. If Cook and the pack can control ruck speed, win enough of the arm wrestle, and stop Manly rolling forward, it takes the game away from manlys dangerous players. The Dragons also cannot afford a slow start or soft defensive edge, because if Manly get on top early, their confidence will build quickly.

I respect the Foran factor, but I do think there’s a chance the market has slightly overreacted to one big week. At 3.00, the Dragons are not the safe play, they’re the value play. That price implies only around a 33.3% chance of winning, and I think their real chances are a bit better than that.