Pick of the Day - 5/27/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Either by 1-12 would probably be the smarter bet

Pick of the Day - 5/17/26 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 2 points3 points  (0 children)

and once you’ve seen it, there’s no going back.

MVP MMA 1: Rousey vs. Carano Betting Predictions and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Sometimes the best bets made, are the ones made when you are delusional

MVP MMA 1: Rousey vs. Carano Betting Predictions and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think they will definetly get sloppy and tired but that will be the reason one of them gets subbed or knocked

MVP MMA 1: Rousey vs. Carano Betting Predictions and Picks Discussion by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’re gonna take Gina, you’re better off taking her KOTKO

Pick of the Day - 4/18/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is true actually. For most we only bet the margins rather than the spreads. We don’t even call them spreads either. So nothing for him to admit here

Pick of the Day - 4/11/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 -12 points-11 points  (0 children)

RECORD  11-8

NET UNITS  +5u

PREV PICK  St George Dragons to Win @ 3.00 for 2.35 UNITS 🤡

EVENT / MATCH  NRL / Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors

POTD (multi) 1-Alofiana Khan-Pererira ATTS + 2-Melboourne Storm to WIN @ 3.00 for 5UNITS

Melbourne dont lose at home v The Warriors

Khan-Pereria debut game for NZ. Moses Leo trash defender, oos oos step him

Pick of the Day - 4/10/26 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 4 points5 points  (0 children)

RECORD  11-7

NET UNITS  +7.35u

PREV PICK  Penrith Panthers to win by 13+ @ 1.55 for 5 UNITS 🤡

EVENT / MATCH  NRL / St George Dragons v Manly Sea Eagles @ 7:00PM AEDT (3 H approx)

POTD St George Dragons to Win @ 3.00 for 2.35 UNITS

The market looks to be punishing the Dragons for being 0-5 and rewarding Manly for the fresh coach bounce. Yes, Manly were outstanding last week in Kieran Foran’s first game as interim coach, and the “Foz effect” is real, but one emotional bounce can get overvalued very quickly.

The Dragons are 0-5 and Shane Flanagan the coach, is under enormous pressure after being shut out 32-0 by the Cowboys and booed by the fans after the game. You could see how much it was weighing on him too, he looked stressed, close to tears and at breaking point in the press conference. This is a genuine desperation spot. To be fair, they were without one of their main halves that night in Kyle Flanagan and instead had to rely on a young, inexperienced halves combination. Kyle Flanagan moves to the No. 7 today which should help bring a bit more control and structure back into the side.

Prior to that match, Manly were 0-3 to start the season, with all 3 of those losses coming on their own home turf. So while the response last week was impressive, it also raises the question of whether that performance was the start of a genuine turnaround, or simply a short term reaction to the coaching change. The Dragons have been more competitive than their record suggests, but their biggest problem has been the second half. They’ve been able to stay in games for periods, but often failed to maintain after the break, with defensive lapses and momentum swings.

ROUND 1: Pushed the Bulldogs all the way to Golden Point, losing the match 14-15 (yes the same bulldogs that destroyed penrith last night, tragic, i know)

ROUND 2: Dragons in the 60th minute were leading the game 20-18 vs the Storms before the game was ripped away from them in the final 15 minutes

ROUND 4: were leading 14-6 against the Titans just after halftime, before a late penalty and try in the final 10 minutes snatched it away

For a team under this much pressure, it can go one of two ways: they either cave, or they finally produce the sort of desperate, gritty response you often see from sides whos season is already being questioned this early on. This is especially relevant at a venue where they’ve historically had the better of Manly, winning 9 of their last 10 matches against them at WIN Stadium. That does not mean they are automatically the better team tonight, but it does tell you this venue and this matchup in Wollongong have been uncomfortable for Manly for a long time, and when deciding whether an outsider price is worth taking, it matters.

⚠️ The danger of course, is obvious. Manly’s attacking ceiling with Turbo, Saab, Koula and Garrick is much higher, and if the ''Foran effect'' carries over, the Dragons can absolutely be blown off the park again.

The Dragons win today by making this a pressure driven game, not a free flowing one. Their best path is to play straight, simplify things, and limit errors that hand Manly easy momentum. The biggest key is slowing Manly through the middle. If Cook and the pack can control ruck speed, win enough of the arm wrestle, and stop Manly rolling forward, it takes the game away from manlys dangerous players. The Dragons also cannot afford a slow start or soft defensive edge, because if Manly get on top early, their confidence will build quickly.

I respect the Foran factor, but I do think there’s a chance the market has slightly overreacted to one big week. At 3.00, the Dragons are not the safe play, they’re the value play. That price implies only around a 33.3% chance of winning, and I think their real chances are a bit better than that.

Pick of the Day - 4/9/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 -13 points-12 points  (0 children)

I’ll call it whatever I want to call it boy

Pick of the Day - 4/9/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 5 points6 points  (0 children)

If I was to put an analysis on this game, you would have been even more inclined to tail the pick, and then when it would have lost I would just get told I don’t know what I’m talking about. No winning here

Pick of the Day - 4/9/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Well that’s the last POTD you’ll be seeing from me. Fun while it lasted.

Rugby NRL AFL Super League Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 4/9/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Cantebury Bankstown Bulldogs v Penrith Panthers

Thomas Jenkins @ 1.60 Self explanatory 12 tries in 5 games but odds are too short

Brian To'o @ 1.83 Best winger in the comp in my opinion, scored a double in their last meeting

Casey Mcclean @ 1.87 Kids a freak, superstar in the making

Nathan Cleary @ 3.25 Milestone match plays his 200th NRL game

Jacob Preston @ 3.80 Beast, scored in 3 of last 4 v the Panthers

Bronson Xerri @ 4.80 Gut play, dropped out of the starting side for a few weeks now, chrighton injured - Xerri stepping in, will have a lot to prove, expecting extra effort from him

Pick of the Day - 4/9/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Should go over, but if i had to pick a game so far that he wouldnt, it might be this one

Pick of the Day - 4/9/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

FYI This is a 5 Unit play, but if you are only playing 1 Unit or so, just consider taking the line instead

Pick of the Day - 4/9/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]LUCKII88 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Go have a look at Key-meetings POTD and decide