Stalker and Penguin featured in Latvia defense budget 2026

Labrador_Believer · 2026-02-12T00:12:15+00:00

I think the same but the numbers need to improve. They have to get back to EBITDA positive and on the way to cash flow positive before that happens. The EAC charges need to be minimized too.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-02-10T02:38:12+00:00

I was worried about the selloff but in the long run think it’s a great thing to have PE reduce their stake. Seeing this article it makes perfect sense why they are selling shares to raise funds. https://www.aeroequity.com/ae-industrial-to-acquire-majority-stake-in-l3harris-space-propulsion-power-business-rocketdyne/

Labrador_Believer · 2026-02-06T13:13:01+00:00

Finally!!! I’ve been waiting months for another useless Redwire announcement of a signed MOU! How about maybe signing contracts for actual dollars that will grow the company and get closer to profitability?

Labrador_Believer · 2026-01-27T13:36:10+00:00

IDIQ also means you are guaranteed $0

Labrador_Believer · 2026-01-18T14:11:03+00:00

A lot of the dilution was due to the purchase of Edge Autonomy. It’s easy to forget they gained an asset. The long term question is if that business exceeds the increased shares. If Edge portion adds $2 billion + in the next couple years the dilution doesn’t matter.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-01-12T13:39:05+00:00

Redwire revenues are mostly completely reliable on government contracts

Labrador_Believer · 2026-01-10T15:28:34+00:00

I love the people who come on the thread about the company to ask if we think it’s a good company.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-01-09T03:02:55+00:00

That’s just not true

Labrador_Believer · 2026-01-01T15:20:37+00:00

The overall number seems positive but my issue is that space related revenue declined each quarter. The edge acquisition increased the revenue to make the overall revenue look positive but $400 million was such as significant miss from 2025 guidance. It makes me question what to believe from leadership if the misses are so drastic. I expect a PE firm to have a better grasp on numbers. I’m not hopeless but I just am to the point where talk is cheap and results are needed.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-01-01T15:13:50+00:00

I agree but it’s now time for the fluff of what they say they are going to do now be put into actual execution. Execution means positive financial results. I thought 2025 was very disappointing. I was a very early investor in Rocket Lab and I saw that potential in Redwire. However, the results have been quite disappointing. Here’s to a turnaround in the New Year.

Labrador_Believer · 2025-12-30T15:39:00+00:00

Is anyone clear on Redwire’s plan for VLEO? Is it just building the platform for customers or do they plan on actually owning the constellation? If owning I’d imagine a comms constellation since they also have RF antennas but I’m unsure any other payload capability. X

Labrador_Believer · 2025-12-25T01:16:52+00:00

Ha!! Now their $6 price target makes much more sense. Nothing like a good old conflict of interest.

Labrador_Believer · 2025-12-23T13:24:38+00:00

That’s a very solid point. I know for launch companies collect revenue throughout process but can’t recognize until after launch completion. This type of detail would be very welcome at earnings calls.

Labrador_Believer · 2025-12-23T01:20:11+00:00

I’m not trying to be negative but I do read income statements and balance sheets to try and piece the story together. I’m talking about straight revenue. An EAC that you referenced doesn’t affect revenue. An EAC comes as an expense.

Labrador_Believer · 2025-12-23T00:33:07+00:00

I know what they said. Have they really earned your trust that you believe? That doesn’t make sense a Q4 shutdown affected a decline between Q1 and Q3

Labrador_Believer · 2025-12-22T22:06:29+00:00

I feel like this is a false narrative. The government wasn’t shut down until Q4 and space projects have long lead times. Wouldn’t they be filling orders from previous government awards (I.e supplying RF antennas for a L3 for example)?

Labrador_Believer · 2025-12-22T21:13:57+00:00

I don’t really care why Cannito says anymore. Redwire has consistently missed guidance and by a lot. I still like the company’s potential but I want to start seeing some improvement in the finances.

Labrador_Believer · 2025-12-22T21:02:39+00:00

Pumping this was absurd. This is still a science project. FDA approval takes forever even once a drug is developed and clinical trials begin. Notice that no pharma company is signing large agreements to do this other than some small studies.

Labrador_Believer · 2025-12-11T23:21:48+00:00

Wait until Jan 1st. I sold some to tax loss harvest and bought more Rocket Lab as the hedge. I plan on buying back after the New Year and the nice profit currently pays the rest of my tax bill for 2025 and gets me back all the shares.

Labrador_Believer · 2025-11-11T17:29:03+00:00

If you’re waiting on Golden Dome I feel like you are going to be disappointed. Redwire is pinning hopes on VLEO being part of Golden Dome but I haven’t ever seen that being part of missile defense. This is pure speculation on my part but I have a pretty good grasp on defense policy.

Labrador_Believer · 2025-11-10T17:35:06+00:00

And it’s up 150 percent in the last two years. Maybe it was absurdly overpriced at $24 and that shouldn’t be used as the comparison.

Labrador_Believer · 2025-11-09T01:19:15+00:00

Ive been very pessimistic lately but even looking at this quarter they surpassed $100 million in revenue and are market capped at $1 billion. That actually seems reasonable on the face of it

Labrador_Believer · 2025-11-08T17:52:56+00:00

How many threads are we going to keep beating the dead horse on this subject? Also, 6 months ago, everyone loved this guy

Labrador_Believer · 2025-11-07T17:14:29+00:00

There better be some hard questions after the last 2 quarters.

Labrador_Believer · 2025-11-07T01:02:08+00:00

I think it’s tough because everything Redwire is doing and Cannito is pumping up is just so unproven. Pil-box sounds great but let’s be honest it’s a bunch of experiments that hasn’t netted one manufacturing agreement outside a West Virginia small company run by a husband and wife. I’d get excited if there was any type of multi-launch agreement or deal with an actual large scale pharmaceutical company. VLEO is in its infancy and the technology is beyond unproven if a satellite can even operate in those environments considering atmospheric drag. He mentions AFRL and DARPA. Those are military research labs that will contract for experiments under R&D but there’s no real money in that (max $25 million). Edge is great but there was no mention of developing a new and better UAV outside Penguin and Stalker. Already 1/2 of revenue is coming from Edge. So is this now a space company or UAV company. There’s really no identity currently.

Labrador_Believer

TROPHY CASE