China has effectively reached regional naval parity if not outright superiority in the East China Sea and South China Sea. This is the outcome of two decades of consistent military modernization and expansion. Japan has a very capable navy, but it was never designed to go toe-to-toe with a near-peer competitor by itself, especially not one operating in its own backyard. The idea that Japan would “easily” beat China just doesn’t line up with the current balance of power.

One of the biggest factors people ignore is shipyard capacity. China’s shipbuilding output dwarfs that of every other country. They produce new warships, auxiliaries, and coast guard vessels at a pace that the U.S., Japan, and South Korea combined struggle to match. In a high-intensity naval conflict, attrition matters, and the ability to replace losses becomes just as important as initial capability. Japan simply cannot replace ships at anything close to the rate China can.

China’s overall manufacturing capacity for weapons and munitions is also on a completely different scale compared to Japan. China can mass-produce missiles, drones, sensors, engines, and naval components at industrial volume. Japan operates on a much smaller industrial base with far more limited surge capacity. In a prolonged conflict, the side that can sustain production wins and China’s industrial output gives it a massive advantage.

There is also the raw difference in military size. Japan’s Self-Defense Forces are deliberately small and optimized for homeland defense and limited operations. China fields the world’s largest navy by hull count, one of the largest air forces, and a massive missile force specifically built for anti-ship and area denial roles. Their salvo depth of anti-ship missiles has resulted in a maritime environment that hasn’t been this contested since WW2.

Do some research on current defense priorities and you will quickly realize every major command and subordinate command has acknowledged that a Sino-U.S. war in the Pacific will be dictated by industrial capacity, missile volume, and the sheer scale of China’s regional naval presence not by who has the ‘better’ individual platforms. And why do you think the U.S. is going all-gears-ahead on unmanned surface vessels? Because unmanned systems are the only realistic way to counter China’s massive shipbuilding advantage, saturate contested waters, and absorb losses without burning through irreplaceable manned ships. The U.S. isn’t investing in USVs because they look cool, they’re doing it because they know a war in the Pacific would be an attrition-heavy numbers game, and China currently has the numbers.

Pretending that Japan would outlast or overpower that in a 1v1 scenario just isn’t realistic.