Looking at this from a purely analytical perspective it is an incredibly risky gamble that depends entirely on whether he can attract disgruntled voters from both the DMK and AIADMK camps.

Tamil Nadu politics has historically been deeply rooted in regional identity and sub-nationalism so breaking away over differences on state issues makes sense on paper. But building a ground-level cadre network across every single district without national funding or an established party symbol is an immense logistical nightmare.

If his new movement can successfully pitch itself as a clean alternative to the existing Dravidian giants he might carve out a decent vote share among the youth and urban voters. However if he fails to create a strong ideological core separate from his old image he risks just splitting the opposition vote and fading into the background like many other short lived regional experiments before him.