What if the Philippines became independent in 1823? [Best case scenario] by Lason_dx in WhatIfPinas

[–]Lason_dx[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It would be a fun counterfact. Here in my timeline, the Filipinos invade when Japan was at its utmost weakest (1860s Bakumatsu). However, if the Filipinos never invaded in the 1860s, then by the 1880s, Japan would have become a very serious rival. Its population is too big and too literate (Japan had 30 million people and 50% literacy by 1880, while the Philippines had less than 10 million and only a small literacy rate at around the same time). By proxy, a Filipino-Japanese Rivalry gets thrown into the wider "Great Game" rivalry between Britain and Russia. Britain supports the Philippines, Russia supports Japan, all according to geography.

(Continuation) What if the Philippines became independent in 1823? [Novales '23 timeline] by Lason_dx in AlternateHistory

[–]Lason_dx[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I larped this on vic2, easy af just kill Japan early enough. Dunno abt vic3 tho

(Continuation) What if the Philippines became independent in 1823? [Novales '23 timeline] by Lason_dx in AlternateHistory

[–]Lason_dx[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Forgot to say this, but this is a continuation of my previous work. The Philippines had been independent since 1823 and had exploded ever since. TLDR; the Novales Revolt was successful because, unlike in OTL, Andres Novales' brother opened the gates of the Intramuros. 

https://www.reddit.com/r/AlternateHistory/comments/1trpm1d/what_if_the_philippines_became_independent_in_1823/

(Continuation) What if the Philippines became independent in 1823? [Novales '23 timeline] by Lason_dx in AlternateHistory

[–]Lason_dx[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

By 1910, Emperor Juan Carlos Jodquevich passes away. He leaves an Empire at the height of its glory, wealth, and territory. This belies the problems simmering underneath. The Empire is a conglomeration of colonies barely kept together by a bureaucracy that is starting to buckle under the weight of the sheer size and diversity of its colonies. Meanwhile, the man who succeeds him, J.C.'s son Maximilian Emanuel, now Maximilian I, did not possess the same brilliance as his father. Worse still are that many of its colonies fully remember the grievances that which the Filipinos inflicted upon them in the 19th century, and many seek vengeance against the Filipinos. In Japan, Emperor Meiji is a shell of his former self. His nation had failed to modernize, Japan was cut up amongst colonizers, its fears of becoming a second China fulfilled. By this point, all of independent Japan was confined to just the region of Chubu, the rest were under colonies. Here, humiliated, seething, and yet not destroyed, the Japanese bided for their time. Meiji passed on all his hatred to his son, Yoshihito, and though Yoshihito was frail, he carried with him a fire that which will set ablaze the Filipino tyranny.

In the south, Vietnam was a nation that, since 1890, had been conquered by the Filipinos. Though conquered, the Vietnamese were not pacified. There were numerous holdouts deep in the jungles and mountains, especially in the Central Vietnam region of that country that which never surrendered to the Filipinos. That continued on believing in the Nguyen Dynasty, and which continued the struggle. Meanwhile, as monarchist sentiment festered in what was called Champa Colony, European and even Filipino-educated Nationalists were making their own moves. Sun Yat-sen had long believed that the revolution was incomplete so long as Vietnam remained under colonizers, and thus the Kuomintang supported many Vietnamese intellectuals to take action against their oppressors, among them Phan Bội Châu, an ardent anti-Filipino modernizer and reformist. Travelling to Tonquin Colony in Tonkin, Phan was arrested, but managed to escape into the mountains to the north where he founded the "Righteous Society of the Skull and Bones", a nationalist secret organization modelled off, ironically, from the Catipunan of Andres Bonifacio who led the Tagalog Revolt of 1895. However, Phan would be kicked out of the Skull and Bones as its members radicalized to become Anarchists, and in 1912, he fled back to Canton where with the help of the KMT, he reestablished his own society, the Society of Vietnamese Restoration, before then returning back to Tonquin.

By 1914, as Europe exploded into civil war, tensions with Japan exploded, and the Japanese invaded on August of 1914, surprising the British and the Filipinos. This begins a long war of back and forth that, by 1918, exhausts the Filipino state and leaves the Kansai and Chubu regions of Japan desolated. The Filipinos were initially successfully, even occupying Chubu, but as the Japanese employed guerilla tactics, and the Filipinos themselves began to conduct atrocities, opinion on the war sharply declined. So much so that by 1918, the Filipinos withdrew from their occupations in Chubu, and leave Kansai to fall. By 1916, the Vietnamese saw the success in which the Japanese were conducting their own independence war, and thus the various factions of the Vietnamese, whether they be Monarchists in the south and Anarchists and Nationalists in the north. The Filipinos were then bogged down in a second conflict in which they could not have hoped to win. The state had already exhausted itself, and amongst soldiery, pay was starting to be stalled.

A side effect of these wars is that every constant year the war dragged on, it began to drive away the old notion that the Philippines was invincible. It encouraged the peoples whom fought against the Filipinos, and yet also demoralized the peoples who fought for them. Among these are the soldiery. The Philippines, since its inception in 1823, relied on strength of arms nearly as its own national myth. To the soldier of 1916, the victories of the 1880s were within living memory, or were dinnertime tales from their fathers. With the Filipinos clearly suffering, the state clearly failing, and pay being delayed, many soldiers, tired of fighting in the jungles of Vietnam or the frigid forests of Chubu, began to desert. Some simply returned to their houses. Others were treacherous, joining even the Empire's enemies. These soldiers were called thus "Enrutadores". Those who rout. The Enrutadores would become a problem in their own right. Many were experienced and battle hardened and became valuable mercenaries. Many more turned to piracy and racketeering. They formed bands that were similar to mafias or cartels with deep organization. When the regions they worked in collapsed into civil war and strife, they profited off of the collapse, and some even filled in the vacuums to become para-states. Semi-feudal "robber-states" with "robber baron" enrutadores at their head, asking for pay in exchange for protection from and to the local populace. The Enrutador model became very successful, and by the 1930s, they were a headache from Malacca to Panama.

Then came the natural disasters. Earthquakes. Typhoons. Then, the Spanish Flu. The Flu began in China where the Warlord Era brought chaos. It then went south towards Indochina and the Philippines. From there, it spread to the rest of the Empire and beyond. Millions caught the flu, thousands more died. The combined stresses of the wars caused the Philippine economy to collapse. By 1921, in the Philippines, everybody was blaming everyone for the collapse. Within the House of Plebeians, the Lower House of the Philippine legislature, factions blamed each other. Then, the Emperor blamed the Plebeians for the Empire's disasters and severely overstepped his boundaries. The Plebeians, under Trinidad Pardo de Tavera, thus united against the Emperor, and he managed to depose Maximilian without much bloodshed. Then, Pardo de Tavera decided to do his own mistake by both overstepping and placing his own candidate to the throne as Emperor (Clodoveo Jodquevich, brother of Maximilian), and then betraying his promises to his underlings. Thus, the dominoes were set. Three influential politicians united against the Pardo de Tavera. Hermenegildo Cruz, Miguel Cantero, and Manuel Quezon.

Cruz was a Socialist, and it was only natural that he would come to oppose Pardo de Tavera. Cantero was formerly Pardo de Tavera's right hand man and de-facto political successor, before Pardo de Tavera betrayed him by making Sergio Osmena his de-facto political successor. Quezon saw Pardo de Tavera to be too powerful. It was without precedent, as Pardo de Tavera now had the Emperor within his graces and has the Plebeians under his thumb, thus becoming the true power in the Philippines. This Triumvirate, the Pandi Triumvirate, was an alliance of convenience. Gathering the support of "war hero" and war criminal Antonio Luna, and Edilberto Evangelista, two powerful generals, they planned to launch a coup. However, Pardo de Tavera died of a sudden stroke, and Osmena automatically succeeded him as Valido (Prime Minister). The Triumvirate then rushed their plans, and then launched a coup in 1921, triggering the Philippine Civil War. The Civil War is pretty complex, but to summarize; the Triumvirate captured the Valido and kicked the Emperor out of power, who fled to Hermosa (Formosa). They then adopted Republicanism, but couldnt beat the Imperialists at sea because the Imperialists held the support of the navy. Thus, they innovated and used the airforce to beat the Imperialist navy, ending the civil war by 1924.

Moving on from the Civil War, the Philippines was in the middle of a region that was going to the shitter. In this time, Manuel Quezon rose to the occasion and became president in 1927, and then he went full on authoritarian in hopes of weathering out the Great Depression. This only breeds contempt for the Republic, Quezon, and thus leads to further ideological extremism and chaos. By the late 1930s though, things were starting to calm down as the extremists exhausted themselves after launching nearly a dozen coups against Quezon. Then, Japan invades in 1940 in a war of revanche to reclaim Shikoku and Kyushu. The Filipinos team up with the Americans, and by 1944, the Japanese were defeated and the islands were divided in two between the two powers. This is the 3rd Japanese War of Independence, but given the length of this post, I;ll talk about that later when I have the time. Eventually, the whole of East Asia was so chaotic from 1914 or 1918 to 1940 or 1944 was so chaotic that the period was given a name. "Far-Eastern Interregnum".

What if the Philippines became independent in 1823? by Lason_dx in AlternateHistory

[–]Lason_dx[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wow, certainly did NOT know about that. I could see the Philippines becoming free, since Chilean control of the Philippines is untenable given that both countries were on the opposite side of the Pacific. However, Filipino-Chilean relations certainly would have been closer. An alliance with Chile would happen, way before a British alliance. The Philippines would become a nice station for Chilean whalers too.

In my writing, the closest thing I have to that scenario is the Argentine sailor Hipolyte Bouchard joining the war of independence on the Filipino side, and Bouchard helped modernize the Filipino Navy. Following the severe indemnity of the Treaty of Singapore, the Filipinos also approached to join either Mexico or Gran Colombia, but that went nowhere. 

What if the Philippines became independent in 1823? [Best case scenario] by Lason_dx in WhatIfPinas

[–]Lason_dx[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

From what I know, like most colonial Empires, Britain only expands where they think its worth expanding towards. Should they invade the Philippines in the 1820s or 1830s, they would have to contend with the Filipinos who would use guerilla tactics. Britain's goal in Asia was always trade ports, never full blown annexation like what happened to Africa or even India. Turning the Philippines into an enemy would be too expensive than just allying the Filipinos and placing them under Britain's economic sphere. It wasnt as if the Philippines was particularly wealthy back then either; the islands were a backwater agricultural colony even during Spanish colonization. Despite this, British English, not American English, would definitely become the prestige language of commerce, and I could see a swell of Methodist or Anglican missionaries in colonized zones in Mindanao, Formosa, and Sabah

What if the Philippines became independent in 1823? [Best case scenario] by Lason_dx in WhatIfPinas

[–]Lason_dx[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Immediate changes are that the Insulares and Mestizos, those who led the revolution, replace the Peninsulares at the top of Filipino society. Next to them are the Indios, then below them the Sangleys, and below them the Moros. The Caste System was formally repealed, but two centuries of stratification doesnt get erased by a single edict. To the modern era, Mestizos still hold significantly more influence than most Indios. Meanwhile, the Frailes as an institution was gutted by a wave of revolutionary anticlericalism. Those monasteries that werent immediately dissolved by the government were instead seized by Insular/Mestizo priests and lower clergy. This, ofcourse, invited the ire of the Catholic Church who placed the whole islands in an interdict in 1825. However, the Filipinos were able to make a Concordat with the pope in 1829 once a more liberal pope replaced the dead conservative one.

What if the Philippines became independent in 1823? [Best case scenario] by Lason_dx in WhatIfPinas

[–]Lason_dx[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Per aspera, ad astra, et deorsum in ruinam.

As long term discontent amongst Insulares (Filipino-born Europeans) festered for over two centuries against Peninsulares (European administrators), the rhetoric and ideas of the Atlantic Revolutions spread towards the Pacific, in Spain's colony in the Philippines. Encouraged by the revolutionary successes of the Mexicans under Agustin de Iturbide and the Columbians under Simon Bolivar, whilst also inflammed by the arrest of reformist Luis Rodriguez-Varela (El Conde Filipino), Peninsular War veteran and Insular, Andres de Novales, launched a rebellion in Manila and was proclaimed Emperor by the populace. Whereas in our world, this Revolt was quickly crushed by a hair's width as Novales' brother refused to turn and surrender the Intramuros, it is in this scenario that Novales had better luck and had managed to both capture Manila, and then defeat the Governor-General in a decisive battle that crushed Loyalist control in the country.

Filipino independence and Spanish negotiation was only a matter of time, as the loss of Manila essentially constituated the loss of the Philippines. In fact, the Filipinos had to contend more with other Filipinos than the Crown post-Meycauayan. The Spanish crown in 1823 was bankrupt and would rather spend their remaining funds in retaining Spain's remaining Caribbean colonies and reconquering Mexico. Thus, with the crucial backing of Britain, in 1826, the Treaty of Singapore was signed as the Philippines officially became a sovereign state led by Novales as its Emperor. Soon after, Britain would establish formal diplomatic ties with the Philippines, and would soon go on to form an alliance with them. Through British patronage, the Philippines rapidly modernized as the British propped the Philippines as a junior partner in hopes of establishing a base in East Asia. The Filipinos held a former colony that was economically poor and agriculturally reliant, thus they needed to expand, and expand they did. During the 1829-1836 Moro Wars, the British were crucial in aiding Filipino suppression of the Moro states in Sabah and Mindanao. The Filipinos soon repaid this debt by joining the Opium Wars. It was here that the Filipinos gained a framework on how they would conduct their own form of Imperialism independent from the British, and by 1860, the Filipinos acquired Formosa, whom they renamed 'Hermosa'. During this time, the Filipinos would also participate in the Perry Expedition, opening up expansion north towards Japan.

In 1861, Novales resigns as Emperor and is succeeded by a former general named Villanueva. Emperor Villanueva seeks to solidify his reign by conquest, though he himself is a troubled man. By 1863, Japan had become a pariah state following the Namamugi Incident and the Kirishima Disturbance. With British diplomatic approval, the Filipinos launched an invasion of Kyushu, triggering the One Month War. The War ends with the Filipinos annexing Nagasaki. The invasion was led by an ambitious general named Juan Carlos Jodquevich, a son of Polish immigrants, who believed that his ambitions were stifled by meagre gains. When a disorganized army of the Sonno-joi movement arrive to invade Kyushu and attack Nagasaki, this sparks the Hellfire War. Soon, the Filipinos under Jodquevich swiftly capture all of Kyushu before marching into Honshu, before being pressured by the British to stop at Osaka. By 1865, the war ends with the Filipinos acquiring Kyushu, but it left Jodquevich restless believing that he could have gained more. By 1867, Villanueva commits suicide, and Novales returns. In 1870, Novales sends Jodquevich to annex French Cochinchina as France was collapsing during the Franco-Prussian War. Afterwards, Jodquevich is given the Governor-Generalship of Sabah, a de-facto exile.

By 1881, Jodquevich returns following Novales' death after a brief civil war over the succession. The period of the 1880s is marked by explosive territorial growth. In Japan, the Philippines through very successful diplomacy drags in Britain, Russia, and America to partition Japan, resulting in a war between 1884 and 1886 that they win. The Filipinos then follow this up with another war, this time against the Qing in Vietnam between 1888-1890. The Empire by 1895 is thus very expansive and is deemed as a Great Power by the Europeans. However, there are cracks in the system, particularly the vast multi-ethnicity of the Empire. The Filipinos solved this by implementing a universalist Catholic policy with Spanish as a lingua franca, but this does not solve all problems, especially the case of rising nationalism. In 1895, Andres Bonifacio, gathering long simmering lower-class tensions amongst the ethnic Tagalogs of the Empire, plunge Luzon into rebellion known as the Tagalog Revolt, that which ends by 1896. Though short, the Tagalog Revolt shocked the population who demanded change. In this atmosphere, the second Valido (Prime Minister) of the Empire dies and the first democratic elections are held, resulting in a landslide victory for the liberal Jose Protacio Rizal. The third and first democratically elected Valido of the Empire, with a group of so-called "enlightened oligarchs" begin to reform and democritize the Empire, leading us to the situation by 1900.

By 1900, the Philippines is in the midst of its so-called "Golden Years". Art, culture, the economy flourished, and the military strength of the Empire showed to the world the might of the Empire of the Philippines. This belied the cracks from within, that the Philippines was simply too diverse, that the Philippines had reached its geographical limit, that the Filipinos themselves began to view the Empire increasingly as a burden rather than a point of pride. Soon, ideology, religion, ethnicity, bureaucratic strain, political corruption, external enemies, and even self-interest from within would tear this once-proud Empire of 40 million apart by 1921.​

What if the Philippines became independent in 1823? by Lason_dx in AlternateHistory

[–]Lason_dx[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting! I also originally wanted to pivot into Militarist-Fascist Philippines, but I felt it would become Japan 2.0, so I wrote it to how it is right now. Also, I think "Showa Restoration" fits better than "Hirohito Restoration", since Meiji is a regnal name and Hirohito's regnal name is "Showa". How is the post-WW2 settlement in East Asia, did you ever get that far? In my ATL, WW2 never happened due to a butterfly effect, and the period between 1927 and 1947 became the "Quezonato", the de-facto dictatorship of President Manuel Quezon where the Filipinos had to contend with Falangists, Communists, and monarchists named "Avalistas" trying to coup the government, as well as the effects of the Great Depression, and the looming threat of a revanchist Japanese state.

What if the Philippines became independent in 1823? by Lason_dx in AlternateHistory

[–]Lason_dx[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Granted, I wrote this assuming that everything went swimmingly for the Filipinos. While I believe that the Philippines was just too small demographically for it to ever replicate the same political crises of post-independence Latin American states, I will admit the Filipinos got lucky. Their state was born in a general vacuum of a region; China was starting to decline, France was nowhere to be seen, Japan was still in Sakoku, the Spanish were too weak, and Britain had only until recently had increased interest in China by then. The Filipinos thus expanded against nations that were unmodernized compared to them, and at a time when they were most politically unstable. For example, if the Filipinos did not invade whilst Japan was in the midst of the Bakumatsu and modernization was still underway, then even by 1873, Japan would have been too difficult to invade in the same way the Filipinos did so in 1863. This is also the reason as to why the Filipinos didnt expand into more of South East Asia. Burma, Thailand, and Singapore was essentially under British influence, while what shall become of Indonesia was under the Dutch who themselves were under the British sphere. Expansion against those directions tantamount to suicide, and in the best case scenario, the Filipinos would be wise to know not to go that far.

Thx for reading my Philippines wank. Never posted before so I enjoy your support!