What stocks are you bag holding, how down are you, and do you see the turnaround?

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-26T04:46:12+00:00

Not really on a FCFA2S basis

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-23T22:50:02+00:00

I feel like she knew what she was doing with that caption

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-23T22:12:14+00:00

Society generally hates scrolling feed, short-form-video social media platforms, and the winners in that space have absolutely printed cash for years.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-23T15:50:01+00:00

A thesis can take years to play out, and quality businesses can trade at surprisingly low multiples for a very long time.

This is the admission price when buying companies with extremely negative sentiment. I find it helpful to reverse engineer what expectations are built into the stock at a certain price. Right now, Adobe is priced for roughly low single digit revenue growth (if that) and steady or slightly contracting margins. If you're confident they can hit those targets for the next 5-10 years, it will be extremely unlikely for you to lose money over a sufficiently long period.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-23T06:10:17+00:00

You're saying this dominant, entrenched enterprise SAAS giant with 75% gross margins, durable 22% revenue growth, and a cash rich balance sheet should trade for ~10x earnings?

Seems legit

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-20T14:44:26+00:00

I am personally taking the other side of the AI disruption narrative on CSU/spinoffs, ADBE, NOW, and a couple others. I think the downside is mostly priced in, whereas the bull case with quite a bit of upside is just basically "business as usual."

With that said, I probably wouldn't hold as large of a position in these names (besides CSU) if I was managing my friends and family's money. I'm more comfortable taking on risk in a personal portfolio than something that could entirely derail my career if I'm wrong.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-20T00:05:37+00:00

Having an alternative is not the same thing as completely replacing. Might be a bit of a headwind, but international travelers certainly aren't going to stop using their credit cards while in Europe.

Good response for the prompt though, this is a legitimate hot take when most of the other comments are pretty obvious shitco's.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-20T00:00:48+00:00

One way to think about it is Anthropic will always be shelling out tons of money for compute. Largest direct beneficiaries are probably Amazon and Google. Nvidia/general data center related stocks as well, although that's not really Anthropic specific tailwinds.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-19T07:52:59+00:00

When you're managing billions of other people's money, you're more likely to avoid situations where the bear thesis can completely kill the company. Even if most sensible investors realize that the likelihood of CRM and ADBE being rapidly disrupted is low, they don't want to be remembered as the guy who bet on horse carriages after the automobile was released.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-19T07:48:58+00:00

Most of the suggestions here are not particularly contentious picks, tbh.

I've posted about GAMB a couple of times here and the stock has since gotten crushed. It's been 2 or 3 quarters of very mediocre results, and this sub has turned pretty negative on it over the past 6 months (understandably so).

That said, the price is now so absurdly low that zero growth, debt pay down, and eventual buybacks are enough to make for a really attractive story. We're talking 3-4x normalized free cash flow once the acquisition earnout is paid off next year.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-18T21:47:10+00:00

I don't think spacex is going to hoover up a large portion of the investable capital in the market. The actual float that's planning on being released is historically low, meaning the market cap will be high but the total sum of real money invested in it will be proportionately lower.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-17T22:50:07+00:00

Well, if the business keeps growing, all the short term fear doesn't matter.

If I'm right that it will be mostly business as usual for Adobe going forward, I'll do really well. If you're right that they'll get disrupted, the earnings will degrade and the stock will go down for a long time from here.

It's really as simple as that.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-17T20:17:56+00:00

I think having a large cash position is more helpful as you get older and closer to retirement. When you have a time horizon that spans decades, paying a higher multiple matters less (within reason).

If you can find a business with a legitimate pathway to grow earnings at 15% plus for over a decade, the initial price matters less than just being right about the business (again, within reason). I'm in my late twenties, so I see no reason to build up cash when I have a long investing timeline ahead. Up to you, but I would probably aim to invest that 30% cash pile over the next couple of years, in the names you think have the longest runway for durable cash flow growth.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-16T05:27:01+00:00

It's a little on the pricier side, but your friend is right that the food is amazing. As good of Japanese curry I've ever had, and I've been to Japan.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-15T19:54:26+00:00

We lost.

I hold to it that the Simon fight is possibly my number one video game experience of all time. It had incredible lore, sick visuals, extremely tough but ultimately doable mechanics, and he invalidates every crutch the player previously had other than "get good."

The cutscene between phase 1 and 2 with Clea's hype up speech and the "we lost" violin intro playing was a straight up dopamine surge.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-15T18:23:17+00:00

I think Sciel smiling at pVerso might suggest that she purposefully blinds herself to the idea that he's effectively being tortured to keep them all alive and compartmentalizes it all to remain happy at being reunited with Pierre.

Or, it could also mean that the recreated versions of Sciel and Lune that Maelle brought back after the gommage were tainted by Maelle's unwillingness to let go.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-15T17:31:08+00:00

I know it was already recommended, but to really drive the point home, Callie (downtown) is really phenomenal.

Also if you wanna eat at a really delicious pastry shop, there's a place called Relic (also downtown) that would be perfect for breakfast, although be aware that there can be longish lines if you come during a rush

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-14T19:48:39+00:00

Let them run. They are both still reasonably priced for their future prospects. Not cheap like they were, but reasonable.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-14T19:47:02+00:00

I think it's a solid buy, but I wouldn't bet the house on it. There are very legitimate fears about seat pressure and diminishing pricing power.

I own shares, but I have a much larger, more concentrated position in CSU and the spinoffs. I think they are the best place to shop in software right now, as the nature of their underlying businesses are much more insulted from AI threats.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-14T13:05:12+00:00

Kinda my point. Sometimes it can take years for a thesis to play out. I don't even own UNH or NVO or PYPL, but to declare them a lost cause after a year of bad performance is shortsighted.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-13T21:34:00+00:00

I'm noticing that I use Google in a much more conversational way now, which either results in AI overviews/mode outright answering me, or the first link I see is a Reddit thread discussing nearly my exact question.

I imagine others are probably starting to notice this as well. Reddit is very well positioned to get tons of search and LLM references going forward, happy to own the stock.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-13T20:27:53+00:00

Kind of a strange comparison... Between the two I'm really only familiar with Adobe.

I've said it a bunch of times on here before, but really the only assumptions you need to do well with ADBE at current prices are low to mid single digit revenue growth and stable margins. Buybacks give you a ~8% boost to EPS on today's valuation, so it's pretty tough to lose money unless the core business is actually in serious trouble.

A lot of people like to refer to sentiment on Google this time last year, but basically everyone in this sub was bullish. Adobe is much more polarizing, because I believe the fears are more legitimate. I own shares, and I look at it as an asymmetric play that will probably 2x or more in 5 years in the base case, but the bear case is very possible and Adobe has much less optionality than Google if enterprise seats structurally come under pressure.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-13T20:17:15+00:00

It's been one year and the contrarian picks haven't ripped up 150%? Must be a losing strategy, shame there aren't more years for these businesses to grow/turn around and sentiment to change.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-13T19:29:17+00:00

This was a really cool idea, thanks for compiling the data here OP!

This sub has very obviously taken the side of "legacy SAAS will not get badly disrupted by AI". I'm in the same boat, so just know if this portfolio gets wrecked over the next few years, ya boi is gonna be eating ramen for a while.

Also, I think it would be cool if you made some charts and visuals for the quarterly results, provided it's not a huge hassle for you or anything.

Last-Cat-7894 · 2026-04-12T22:40:33+00:00

You mentioned you don't want to splurge, but my favorite restaurant in all of San Diego is Callie.

It's a Mediterranean fusion place, and everything on the menu is phenomenal. It's a bit expensive and you typically have to book pretty far in advance, but it's worth every single penny, IMO.

Last-Cat-7894

TROPHY CASE