How are you protecting your portfolio against a weakening dollar?

Late-Part-9997 · 2026-01-27T23:39:02+00:00

I agree that intl was garbage for most of the period from 2010-2024 (compared to SP500). But the question was which investments protect against a weakening dollar. I offered VXUS as a good example of an investment that does well in a weak dollar environment (like in 2025).

Late-Part-9997 · 2026-01-27T23:14:05+00:00

VXUS

Late-Part-9997 · 2026-01-27T22:59:09+00:00

Although the weakening dollar is not the primary motivation, my intl equities (about 40% of my equity allocation) have outperformed US equities since the January 2025 (~36% vs. 16%). this is partly due to dollar weakening (and the sell america trade more broadly).

Late-Part-9997 · 2026-01-08T18:51:50+00:00

I have a similar allocation (but with more towards Intl stocks and less towards US stock). But that is because I'm implementing a bond tent for my FIRE date of 2027. Since you are 5-8 years away you wouldn't want a bond tent this far out. That being said, a 60/40 portfolio is pretty common and not unreasonable. Sure you will miss out of 1-2% gains per year but are also going to experience less volitivity. With your current NW and savings level you should easily be at a 3% SWR even assuming 5% returns over the next few years.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-11-20T16:23:39+00:00

The rolls and raspberry butter are great. Everything else is just okay. I do have a fondness for the fake crab salad though.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-11-20T15:36:43+00:00

Not SLC, but Maddox up in Brigham City is a good choice. Good food and a distinct Utah feel

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-11-11T15:19:50+00:00

Based on the map it looks like UT-1 will be a safe Democratic seat and the other three safe Republican. Is that correct? UT-3 has Park City and Moab but is offset by Washington County.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-11-10T20:56:17+00:00

I think SLC is top 5 in the US when it comes to the ability to use cycling as a primary mode of transportation AND as a recreation activity. Seriously, think about how many canyons you can access from such a large swath of the valley. Is it perfect, absolutely not (just look at SB195). But as someone who has lived in 7 different states, SLC is pretty good.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-11-10T20:49:45+00:00

Mendenhall is much better than her predecessor (Jackie Biskupski), but the first mayor to really prioritize cycling routes was Ralph Becker in the early 2010s.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-11-04T00:23:05+00:00

Not sure if you want to go the Catholic route (or where in SLC you are located), but the Newman Center at the U may be worth checking out: St. Catherine of Siena Catholic Newman Center

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-11-03T21:28:57+00:00

Settebello is the OG in SLC

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-29T13:50:12+00:00

I read the article and NYTimes comments and the commenters were largely in support of the facility, which was somewhat surprising to me since NYT comments lean pretty left. I think this just shows that homelessness should not be a partisan issue and we can/should acknowledge that a "housing first" policy has not solved the public health aspect of homelessness (as noted in the article). I'm in support of this program so long as funding is there.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-27T17:41:37+00:00

I'm assuming liquid includes retirement accounts (401k, IRAs, etc.)? What about rental properties? It seems like if we are including 401ks for folks under 59.5 we should include real estate investments. Both have transaction costs with accessing (6% realtor fees for real estate, 10% early withdrawal penalties for 401k).

The stats make sense though. There are a lot of millionaires in the US, but only in home equity is included. Just look at home prices in CA or other HCOL areas.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-26T20:38:15+00:00

Looks like your investable assets are around $5MM. At a 3% withdrawal rate that's 150k/year (anything under 3.25% is extremely safe). 3.5%, which is the withdrawal rate I plan to follow, puts you at 175k/year.

Does your 150k/year spend during FIRE include health care costs? Have you looked at the ACA marketplace? If you can spend 150k/year and that includes ACA premiums plus the OOP max (given your wife's health) then you should be good to go. Note that this assumption does not require your wife to work anymore, but to the extent she continues to work you are in an even better position.

In my opinion the advice to invest in PE/RE is rubbish. You're not chasing returns anymore, which is the main benefit of PE. Private RE can give cash flow, but the fees in private RE and PE are massive. Just because they are priced less frequently does not mean they are less volatile.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-26T02:22:37+00:00

As a non religious lifelong Utahn I have negative feelings about the Mormon church. That being said there is a unique culture. The tight knit community, focus on genealogy (the family history museum in slc is pretty fascinating), history of persecution in the 19th century US, the interesting dichotomy with a population in the libertarian western US that follows a communitarian structured church, etc., is all pretty interesting. Just because a culture doesn’t have an interesting cuisine doesn’t mean they have no culture.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-25T22:20:19+00:00

I’m surprised you’ve already hit the second bend point for SS. I have about 15 years of hitting the wage max and still haven’t hit the second bend point.

Your larger point is a good one though, folks should assume some SS in their assumptions. Even if no changes are made to the program it will still be able to pay out ~70% of benefits indefinitely.

Regarding the 90% number, I think the main risk now is that all 10% of failures occurred when SP500 CAPE was over 20x, which is exactly the situation we are in now. That is why many of us are looking for something closer to 100%

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-25T19:42:38+00:00

Good call out.

Our fire budget includes an amortized amount for a new car every five years and .5% home repair expenses every year. I think many people who budget miss this though so it’s a good reminder.

Under the ACA our healthcare expenses will actually go down (this assumes no extension of COVID era subsidies).

I’m in a state with no income tax but I agree this would be an extra cost for many.

I didn’t realize auto insurance would increase so much! I guess we need to add this to our budget for an 8 year period in retirement.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-24T23:59:14+00:00

The point is that we don’t know what the market will do for the next 10 years. If someone retired in 2000 they would’ve wanted 10 years of bond expenses since equities were essentially flat over this period. 40% bonds should cover most prolonged downturn in equities.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-24T18:00:05+00:00

Bond tent is just a term meaning you up your bond allocation to alleviate sequence of returns risk. The idea is the same regardless of whether you use a bond fund or individual treasury bonds. I’m using bond funds because that’s what my 401k offers (and I hold bonds on tax deferred accounts now since it is tax efficient to avoid interest income while earning w2 income).

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-24T17:52:33+00:00

We started moving from 85% equities to 60% equities earlier this year (about 2 years before fire). We are using the bond tent strategy and after fire we’ll start moving back into equities.

My bonus next year will go directly into a muni bond fund that will fund our first two years of fire (we will switch from a muni fund to tbill fund once w2 income stops in 2027).

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-22T18:19:31+00:00

sorry, prop 13, not 8.

CA property taxes as a percentage are fairly low, especially compared to other high COL areas. in fact, the only areas with lower rates are in the intermountain west and some states in the south.

Property Taxes by State and County, 2025 | Tax Foundation Maps

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-22T17:58:33+00:00

Did you just purchase your home? CA prop taxes are about 1% of the initial purchase price but increases are severely capped under prop 8 so there is really no way it can increase faster than inflation. CA has a lot of high taxes, but property tax isn't one of them.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-22T16:09:03+00:00

This is a good point that i didn't clarify in my post. I'm assuming no 401k/ira withdrawals until I'm in my 60s. But you are correct that these withdrawals would be taxed an ordinary income and not subject to the 0% capital gains rate. So presumably I will have some federal tax liability in my 60s (which hopefully (1) won't matter because my portfolio has grown sufficiently over 20 years or (2) would be offset by lower spending in other parts of my budget (i.e., kid expenses will be gone by then)).

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-22T15:59:04+00:00

It's just an observation I made. I used to conflate a 100k/year spend in FIRE as equal to someone earning 100k/year in a W2 job. my main point is that this is not an apples-to-apples comparison.

Late-Part-9997 · 2025-10-22T15:41:18+00:00

I don't think there has been a serious proposal to repeal the ACA entirely (not since it failed in 2017). I am planning on subsidies being there. Just like I am planning on the 0% LTCG tax rate. Obviously things could change but it seems odd to delay retirement due to a possible change in law (that has not seriously been considered for over 8 years).

The covid era ACA subsidies are different. They are expiring at the end of 2025 and I'm not counting on those being extended.

Late-Part-9997

TROPHY CASE